What Could Go Wrong
Father time knows no defeat. Eventually, players deteriorate and struggle to keep up with younger players. Skills diminish and players have to figure out how to fit into new roles and new identities on the court.
Afflalo enters this season at 31 years old. His season last year with the Sacramento Kings was largely his worst statistical season since his first couple years with the Detroit Pistons.
His final average of 8.4 points per game was the lowest since the 2010 season. And it has been a precipitous decline for him ever since he left the Magic in 2014. His 25.9 minutes per game last year, in 61 games and 45 starts, were the fewest he has played since 2009.
It is hard not to see all these numbers and not sense a decline from Afflalo. He is at that age.
That does not mean he cannot contribute meaningfully, but his role will have to change.
When he was with the Magic in 2014, Afflalo averaged 3.2 drives per game. He was hardly efficient on those drives — 2.2 points per game and 41.1 percent field goal percentage. But the Magic put the ball in his hands and let him go to work in some form of isolation.
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On pull-up opportunities, Afflalo shot 5.2 field goal attempts per game. He scored 4.9 points per game on pull-up shots. Afflalo had a career-best 23.3 percent usage rate as he had his best individual season.
Last year with the Kings, Afflalo averaged just 1.2 drives per game. And his efficiency was worse — 0.8 points per game on drives and 37.8 percent shooting on drives. On pull-up opportunities, Afflalo scored just 1.9 points per game and shot 39.7 percent from the floor. His usage rate dipped to 14.4 percent.
Afflalo became mostly a spot-up shooter last year. And it largely worked considering he shot 41.1 percent from beyond the arc. On spot-up opportunities, according to NBA.com, Afflalo shot 57.6 percent effective field goal percentage and scored 1.15 points per possession.
He has, at least slowly, transformed himself into a better supporting shooter.
That seems to be the way for Afflalo to save his career. The Magic may well put the ball in his hands some. But without other shooters to help spread the floor off the bench, it will be tough to give him the ball. His role may very well be a spot-up shooter almost exclusively.
He is going to be very different than that first stint with Orlando. And that could mean his role diminishes again as he continues to get a bit older. Afflalo is still making that transformation to grizzled vet. His success may depend more on the players around him.