Orlando Magic Daily
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Five Reasons to be optimistic about the 2018 Orlando Magic

By Ricky Scricca

SAN ANTONIO, TX - MAY 22: Jonathon Simmons #17 of the San Antonio Spurs handles the ball against the Golden State Warriors during Game Four of the Western Conference Finals of the 2017 NBA Playoffs on May 22, 2017 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photos by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
SAN ANTONIO, TX - MAY 22: Jonathon Simmons #17 of the San Antonio Spurs handles the ball against the Golden State Warriors during Game Four of the Western Conference Finals of the 2017 NBA Playoffs on May 22, 2017 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photos by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Bismack Biyombo, Orlando Magic, Tim Hardaway Jr., Atlanta Hawks
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – DECEMBER 13: Bismack Biyombo #11 of the Orlando Magic boxes out against Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 of the Atlanta Hawks on December 13, 2016 at Philips Center in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE (Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Progression to the mean

The Magic’s center rotation was a mess last year. They may have asked too much of Bismack Biyombo, especially on offense. Nikola Vucevic was unhappy about moving to the bench at certain points and made no secret of it.

Surprisingly, Vucevic was a better defender than Biyombo in 2016. He was even a better rebounder, statistically. While Vucevic grabbed 19.6 percent of available rebounds, Biyombo only managed 17.2 percent, his lowest number since his sophomore season. Lineups with Biyombo allowed an egregious 112 points per 100 possessions.

Vucevic overperformed in these categories while Biyombo massively underperformed. That was a big reason why the team never lived up to its expectations.

It is difficult to pinpoint exactly why things turned out this way. Some of it can be attributed to effort: not boxing out enough, not hustling enough, etc. Some of it can be attributed to Biyombo having to play behind poor perimeter defense. The answer is probably a little of both.

Per NBAWowy.com, Biyombo played most of his minutes alongside D.J. Augustin, Jeff Green, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. Only one of those four is a capable defender. The others were notoriously porous.

The Magic’s perimeter defense is better with Simmons, Mack and Isaac coming aboard. Its depth is better, which may allow Biyombo to play with better defenders more often.

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It is important to remember elite rim protectors can turn a so-so defense into a great one regardless of who is defending the perimeter. A strong inside presence not only can send layups into the 10th row, but it can intimidate players into settling for tough midrange jumpers. The best of the best have a tendency to make their teammates look better on defense.

For those reasons, it is almost impossible to adequately evaluate the impact of a player like Rudy Gobert.

Biyombo did not have that effect last year no matter who he played with. Adding better defenders around him to make his job easier is part of the equation. But it can only go so far. He has to be better.

Another part of the equation is effort and fit. That is harder to predict, but still something the team can feel optimistic about.

Surrounding him with other good defenders, having a fresh 82 games, and battling for minutes with Vucevic all could get more out of Biyombo. He will have reasons to play better. If the team can win a few games or just be fun for him to play on, that will provide even more encouragement.

Biyombo turns 25 in a couple months. He is relatively young, so aging was not a factor in last season’s performance. If it were, counting on him to bounce back would be foolish. Few players can reverse the effects of getting older.

Compared to the rest of his career, last season was an anomaly. The explanations can be speculated on, but his age, the regression effect, and some other factors would tell us that he is statistically likely to come back a little stronger.

This time around, the Magic don’t need to count on him to have a decent team defense. But if he does manage to return to form, he’ll at least be easier to trade.