The Orlando Magic should not trade Nikola Vucevic… yet
The trade market is bad right now
Right now, the supply of big men on the NBA trade market far outweighs the demand. It does not make sense to try to sell one when their collective value could not be lower.
Many were surprised when Taj Gibson and Nerlens Noel netted their teams such small returns. It is a preview of how difficult it would be to get equal value in return for Vucevic.
In a deal with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Chicago Bulls packaged Gibson with Doug McDermott just to get Joffrey Lauvergne, Cameron Payne and Anthony Morrow – all of whom toiled at the end of the Bulls’ bench the rest of the season.
The Philadelphia 76ers only got a little-known defensive prospect in Justin Anderson and a top-18 protected first-round pick for 2017 from the Dallas Mavericks for Nerlens Noel. Considering there was virtually no chance the Mavericks would finish in the top 12, that “first-round pick” became two second round selections.
Despite no shortage of trade rumors, the 76ers were unable to move Jahlil Okafor, the Brooklyn Nets could not find a deal for Brook Lopez. One can only imagine what the Magic would find if they made Vucevic availabel on the market.
Although Vucevic is a better player than Noel or Okafor and younger than Gibson or Lopez, he might be a less attractive target than any of them because of his questionable defense. And unlike Noel and Gibson, Vucevic is not an expiring deal, although he is still a good value.
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Vucevic is not quite good or established enough to be a primary option on a good team. And he is not young enough for teams to develop.
Whatever return Magic fans would hope to get for Vucevic likely is not in the cards right now.
Vucevic’s value may trend upwards around 2018. Players like Greg Monroe, Bismack Biyombo, Jonas Valanciunas and Timofey Mozgov will be making between $16 and $18 million and Nikola Vucevic less than $13 million with just one year left on his deal. Nerlens Noel and Mason Plumlee will be earning near the max by that point.
Plus, as the salary cap rises, more centers will be getting paydays that make Vucevic’s look comparatively smaller.
As years come off his contract and his salary decreases relative to those of other big men, trading for him will be less risky.
The center position will likely still be oversaturated, so Vucevic’s value will be limited no matter what. But it is simply too low right now to trade him and feel good about it. The Magic are better off waiting and hoping his value trends upwards soon, which appears likely.