Why the Orlando Magic don’t need to “tank”
By Zach Palmer
With less than 25 games left this season, the Orlando Magic find themselves in an interesting spot. The team is fourth in a packed Lottery. And they show no signs of willfully holding onto that.
With the 2017 NBA Draft snagging a lot of headlines, Orlando Magic fans have begun to think about the draft and how the Magic might position themselves to rake in a big-name prospect. Fans are discussing the idea the Magic should “tank” in order to land a premier draft pick.
Recently, “tanking” has taken on a negative connotation thanks to the exploits of former Philadelphia 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie.
Hinkie went out of his way to make sure his 76ers teams would lop off any players who were not vital to the franchise’s long-term health. As a result, solid contributors and veterans such as Thaddeus Young were let go for draft picks.
The 76ers, as a byproduct, produced a worse team on the court, full of players itching for a NBA chance, but more likely to star on a D-League roster.
But less talked about is “tanking” has been around as a strategy for quite some time — go research how the Houston Rockets got Hakeem Olajuwon or how teams jockeyed for Patrick Ewing in the first year with the Lottery.
Hinkie may have taken it to the extreme, but plenty of teams, including recent iterations of the Orlando Magic, have adopted the idea of losing naturally.
Dallas sportswriter Mike Fisher coined the term “Organic Tanking” when describing the Dallas Cowboys a few years ago. Essentially, the idea is for a team to put their team in difficult positions to win by making moves that benefit the future of the team. This could mean playing young players over veterans or sitting out players with even minor injuries.
They all have rational justifications, but still work to make the team worse.
In an organic tank, a team keeps bridge players such as D.J. Augustin and Nikola Vucevic to keep up the appearance of competitiveness. These are win-now kinds of players, but they are likely not good enough to win often.
Orlando Magic
In regular tanking, like the one the 76ers underwent, those are the first guys a team trades for draft picks. Here, players like Jakarr Sampson get played way out of position in order to rack up losses (think Mike Madsen’s late-season 3-point barrage in 2006).
In tanking, the primary goal is to lose and obtain better odds in the Draft Lottery. In organic tanking, the primary goal is to gauge the future of the current players on the team.
But when you are already a poor team it also happens to coincide with a lot of losses. The losses occur naturally.
The Magic are taking this second route — intentionally or not. If they lose — if they are tanking — they are going to do it simply because they are not good enough while they figure out what they have on this roster.
How can the Magic begin to achieve this organic tanking? The Magic could free up some roster spots to try out younger players. They could let go of some veterans who do not fit into the long-term thinking of the team.
There is another critical component to organic tanking.
The Magic need to be extremely cautious with their injuries. Recently, Frank Vogel said Jodie Meeks is still 1-3 weeks away from practicing. There are only about five weeks left in the season.
It would serve the Magic well to play on the three weeks side of this timetable, giving Jodie Meeks an additional week to practice himself into game shape. Not to mention simply continuing to play Mario Hezonja ahead of him in the rotation when he is healthy to play.
Similarly, C.J. Watson is now out of a walking boot after suffering an Achilles injury. While there is no specific timetable for C.J. Watson’s return, the Magic should focus on playing other, younger players ahead of Watson for the remainder of the year.
Why? Because when you tank organically you turn over larger roles over to young players.
If C.J. Watson were to come back, he would likely take minutes away from Mario Hezonja.
Hezonja, the fifth pick in last year’s draft has averaged 24 minutes per game since the Magic traded Serge Ibaka. The Magic need Hezonja’s playing time to stay around that 24-minute mark. It is critical for the Magic to head into the offseason knowing what to expect from Hezonja next year.
Another change the Magic can make is shifting the focus of the offense away from Evan Fournier and giving more touches to Aaron Gordon at the power forward spot.
The Magic need to showcase Gordon offensively now that he is at his natural position.
Gordon has sported his highest usage rate this year at 19 percent as a wing. Now that Gordon has moved back to the spot where his physical gifts provide him an extreme advantage. That rate needs to climb to Fournier’s current rate at near 24 percent. This could help the Magic project just how much they can use Aaron Gordon in the offense going forward with the franchise.
All these goals have an eye on the team’s future, trying to make the most of the rest of the 2017 season to benefit the 2018 season. And they all have at least the guise of helping the team win short-term.
And all these moves also ensure the Magic still play hard and give themselves every chance to win. Whether they do or not is solely up to them. In all likelihood, they will not be good enough to do so. They are what their record says they are.
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So no, the Magic should not lose on purpose. There are very real points to be made about how losing creates a negative culture and how it affects players growth and development.
The Magic should indeed be trying to win. As Vogel said, the remainder of the season should be devoted to learning how to play the right way.
Vogel, barring some unforeseen circumstances, will be Orlando’s coach for a long time. He needs to be able to mesh with some of the long-term players on this team. He needs to learn which roles some of these core guys need to have for this team’s future success.
If these experiments with roles produce losses, at least the team understands its weaknesses and needs better.. Or better yet, if the Magic have some kind of revelation the team’s future might find itself in an upward trajectory.
Now, it is understandable to think the Magic need to lose to ensure this season was not wasted. The only way to salvage this year is to obtain a premier draft pick and draft a future centerpiece of the team.
But the way about which the Magic rack up losses is important.
The Magic need to see just how well they are able to compete while throwing their once highly touted young core on the court as much as possible.
Next: Playbook: Mario Hezonja's defensive renaissance
If the strategic change works in a positive fashion then they may have something to build toward. If it does not, then the ensuing draft pick will be needed as badly as the tanking enthusiasts believe it is.