The Orlando Magic have made it clear they are going to look to make a splash in free agency. The problem is, so can everyone else, adding to the intrigue.
The offseason has already begun for the majority of the NBA. And it comes into even sharper focus with the NBA Draft Combine taking place this week. The first real step of the offseason will not be in full public view. The rumor mill will begin to churn again.
The focus then turns quickly to free agency, if it is not there already for several teams.
In February, the Orlando Magic seemingly announced themselves as players on the free agency market. They traded their highest paid player in Tobias Harris for Brandon Jennings (and his expiring contract) and Ersan Ilyasova (and his non-guaranteed salary in 2017). The Magic essentially cleared up $17 million in cap space with the salary cap increasing by $20 million. The Magic, with cap holds and other considerations, have somewhere near $40 million in cap room to play with realistically this summer.
That is a start for sure. And the Magic could do some refiguring — with Evan Fournier’s cap hold especially — to get two max slots this summer to really make a bigger splash.
But every other team in the league will have money to spend this summer too. Just about every team in the league will have one max slot created thanks to the salary cap jumping from $72 million to an estimated $92 million this summer.
It is creating a weird free agency market where no one is quite sure who will be worth what in the open market. And players certainly could see their salaries skyrocket with so many teams able to compete for free agents.
The reality is pretty stark too, as Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders wrote a few weeks ago. There is currently $1.612 billion in guaranteed salary for the 2017 season. If the cap comes in at $92 million per team, that means there is $2.760 billion in guaranteed cap room. That means there is $1.148 billion in cap space to be spent this summer.
That is approximately $38.3 million in cap space per team. Per team!
"In a normal year, there are four or five teams with serious money and players can sort of start decide where they want to be based on the known factor of who has cash. When 24 teams have cash, it’s hard to project – on both sides.In talking with NBA executives from teams with sizable cash, there is not a sense of which players they have a real shot at because so many teams have money. Teams that are used to getting to the front of the free agent line on a meeting are unsure they’ll get a chance at all this year.Some teams have big plans for free agency, but are very aware they may come out of the first week of July with no one of substance."
Free agency could get very strange very quickly. That impact player that every team wants is going to have a lot of options — and his best option financially will always be to stay with the team already.
That puts the Magic in a tricky situation when it comes to free agency — and perhaps shows why the Harris trade was maybe thinking too far ahead. The Pistons essentially opted to make Tobias Harris their big free agent signing rather than go into free agency with all this uncertainty.
They have to make themselves as marketable as possible to potential free agents before then. But they also have to be patient enough to step back from this market and not overpay for the wrong player.
This does not mean they should not take a calculated risk. If the Magic believe Harrison Barnes will break out and become a franchise player, they should absolutely throw their hat into that ring. But they should not settle on some player just to spend the money.
The Magic have other improvements to make and can make them without signing a max player. They have to be smart with the money and cap space they do have.
It just also shows the Magic cannot rely solely on free agency to make improvements. It is just too uncertain and too wild to rely solely on free agency to make the improvements the Magic have to make.
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Every team is facing this uncertainty though. It should create a lively rumor mill and certainly some interesting discussion this offseason.