The Orlando Magic are thinking of changing their starting lineup. To help him and the team get back on track, Victor Oladipo should move to the bench.
The Orlando Magic appear as though they are going to be changing their lineup before Wednesday’s game. Scott Skiles said after Monday’s loss, another inconsistent effort from the starting lineup to start both halves, he was going to consider changes to the lineup to force some change to the team and bring back some balance.
BREAKING: The Orlando Magic will start Channing Frye in Victor Oladipo’s place for Wednesday’s game against the New York Knicks.
The Magic really seem to have two options in finding what is statistically the most effective lineup.
To achieve that balance, it would be difficult to lose Nikola Vucevic, considering the inconsistency on offense from his backups. It might also be difficult to lose Elfrid Payotn because of all the things he can do to make players better. And ultimately he might struggle as the best player on the second unit.
To keep the balance, there feels like one solution. The struggling Victor Oladipo can find a renaissance by heading to the bench and leading that group rather than fitting in with the starters.
Orlando’s most effective lineup that has played any kind of meaningful minutes are Elfrid Payton–Evan Fournier–Tobias Harris–Channing Frye-Nikola Vucevic (117.2 offensive rating, 90.3 defensive rating in 33 minutes over two games) and C.J. Watson-Victor Oladipo-Evan Fournier-Tobias Harris-Nikola Vucevic (152.4 offensive rating, 110.2 defensive rating in 20 minutes over five games).
There is obviously not a huge sample size for either group right now. And the competition they went up against is not perfectly clear from looking at the raw numbers.
Knowing what Skiles is looking for on the defensive end and keeping relative balance for the bench unit, if the Magic are to make a change in the starting lineup it should probably be to that first group. It has been effective before (it is the lineup Skiles turned to with Oladipo out against Utah and Washington).
Oladipo also could benefit offensively from coming off the bench. He played with the Magic’s bench unit for the second quarter of Monday’s game.
As Adam Papageorgiou of Magic Basketball Online wrote, moving Oladipo to the bench could benefit him. Quite simply, Oladipo is not producing enough offensively — a career low 41.2 percent effective field goal percentage.
"It should be noted, that Oladipo has chosen to settle more for jumpers than actually attacking the basket. Last season, 42.3% of Oladipo’s field goal attempts came at the rim. Through the 11 games he’s played, it’s down to 28.1%. Last season, 22.8% of his shot attempts were from behind the 3-point arc. This season it’s 32.7%. But it’s not like his 3PT% is better in ’15-’16 – just 28.0 3PT% – as Vic’s percentage from deep in ’14-’15 was 33.9 3PT%. Oladipo is shooting a respectable 46.7 FG% from between 10 and 16 feet. The problem is in the paint and 3-point range."
Oladipo is not producing and still taking up quite a few possessions — although, he has a career-low 21.7 percent usage rate. Something is off about Oladipo. The team would undoubtedly be better optimizing his play.
Noting this is a small sample size, the group of Oladipo, Shabazz Napier, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith posted a 172.7 offensive rating and a 75.8 defensive rating in six minutes to help the Magic take a 10-point lead Monday.
This lineup does have a bit of everything.
Oladipo and Napier can drive and dish — the two have worked well together for a 102.6 offensive rating and +0.7 net rating in 52 minutes. Again, a small sample size, but Napier has worked well off the ball when Oladipo can take some of the “point guard” duties.
Any combination with the Magic’s backup bigs would also give Oladipo some freedom to dominate the ball, something he was good at last year.
Really the potential of bringing a player like Oladipo off the bench to simulate a lineup or role similar to last year would benefit both of them individually.
That may not solve the problem though.
Oladipo has still done good things. He has a 1.1 defensive box plus/minus according to Basketball-Reference (meaning the team is 1.1 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the floor over an average player). Skiles has said Oladipo has been playing at an All-NBA Defensive Team level (before his concussion at least).
Moving him to the bench does not necessarily mean he will see a decrease in minutes either. Oladipo should still get plenty of time. His defensive skill and play this year should guarantee him a central role in the rotation.
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This is about balancing lineups to maximize the Magic’s best players the entire game.
Different players have played poorly at different times. Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic have probably been the most inconsistent of all the starters. It is just harder to find suitable backups to fill the starting position for them long term and maintain the balance.
Payton would be difficult to bench because of his lack of offensive punch and what he can do to help the offense move.
Vucevic could come off the bench in favor of Dewayne Dedmon or Jason Smith, but Vucevic seems like a much better player who can be relied on better for offense and defense on a night-to-night basis. While Dedmon has had starts before, his inconsistency has knocked him out of the rotation.
At this point, it is not sure if Skiles is going to make a change simply to replace players who do not meet or have not met his standards or if he will change the lineup to make a rotation. That distinction will be important in making this decision.
Skiles has said his lineup change is not punitive. It just clear the starting unit is not working.
To keep some offensive balance between the first and second units, it seems Oladipo would be the best candidate to come off the bench. That would be the direction to go.
But, again, that may not solve the overall problem. It could just be a stopgap to keep balance and consistency. The problems if they do not correct themselves, could run deeper.