Orlando Magic Daily
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Are the Orlando Magic allowing too many threes?

By David Iwanowski

Nov 11, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcelo Huertas (9) shoots a three pointer against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 101-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 11, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcelo Huertas (9) shoots a three pointer against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 101-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Orlando Magic have been playing solid defense, but opponents have been putting up a lot of three point attempts against them. Should they be worried?

The Orlando Magic have only played 11 games this season, and they have impressed with a 5-6 record. Their offense and defense look improved overall despite some rough patches, and the team is really working hard under new head coach Scott Skiles.

One stat stands out as a potential weakness though. The number of 3-point attempts the team has allowed.

The Magic are tied for the most 3-point attempts against per game at 28.2.

At first glance, that seems like an alarming stat. Three-pointers are very efficient shots, especially compared to midrange jumpers.

I collected various team stats from last season and put them in a spreadsheet. I used the correlation function to find the correlation between specific stats and wins.

Last season there was a 0.469 correlation between 3-point attempts and wins, and the same correlation coefficient existed for the proportion of field goal attempts that were threes and wins. Despite only being a mild correlation, it is one of the strongest correlations between individual stats and wins.

However, 3-point defense is not as big of a problem for the Magic as it may seem.

There was only a -0.115 correlation between 3-point attempts against and wins last season, which is an extremely weak number.

The more important statistic is 3-point percentage.

Last season there was a 0.694 correlation between three point percentage and wins, which is pretty strong and one of the strongest of individual statistics.

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There was also a -0.612 correlation between three point percentage against and wins, meaning there is a strong correlation between how well opponents shoot threes and how many losses a team has.

The Magic have been in good standing in this category.

They are currently tied for sixth in the NBA in 3-point percentage against at 31.9 percent after allowing Washington to shoot 12-29.

The Magic give up 0.0.957 points per possession on 3-point attempts, which is lower than the average points per possession for every team except Philadelphia and Memphis so far this season.

This means, although teams are shooting a lot of threes against the Magic, the Magic are doing a good job of contesting them, making them difficult for the shooter, and making them miss.

The strongest correlation between proportion of field goal attempts in certain spots and wins exists in the 10-14 foot range.

The correlation coefficient there was 0.444 last season, meaning there is a mild positive correlation between proportion of field goal attempts in that zone and wins.

Shots from that zone are often forced by defenses that close out hard on long range shots, forcing their opponents to dribble in, and stop them from getting into the paint.

The Magic are 17th in the league in field goal attempts against from 10-14 feet away from the basket, and they may want to increase that number.

The Magic defense is definitely still improving and has a long way to go to get to where Skiles wants it to be. One thing they don’t currently have to worry about is 3-pointers against, as long as they continue to close out and contest them effectively.