Why the Orlando Magic should go with the rest of the league and make three-pointers more of a part of the gameplan.
It is very apparent the NBA is moving toward a higher volume of 3-point attempts and a lower volume of mid-range field goal attempts, as 3-point attempts increase every year.
Three of the top four teams in 3-point attempts made their respective conference finals, including the NBA Champion Golden State Warriors. Eight of the top 10 teams in 3-point attempts made the playoffs.
That movement is with good reason, as 3-point shot attempts are more efficient than deep two’s.
More from Analysis
- 2023 Orlando Magic Playoff Lessons: Philadelphia 76ers can’t seem to avoid conflict
- Orlando Magic FIBA World Cup: Franz Wagner can be a star if he takes it
- Orlando Magic are going to find out who they are in 2024
- 2024 Orlando Magic Player Outlook: Moe Wagner is the spark off of the bench
- NBA 2K Ratings represent Orlando Magic’s hope and skepticism
When deciding what is a good shot for a team, one must look at expected points per possession. Unless a player is vastly superior at hitting the mid-range opportunities, they will yield a higher expected output per possession when shooting a similar shot from three.
The Magic are no different, and this season, they should look to establish the 3-point shot more than in the past few years.
The Magic were 22nd in the NBA last season in 3-point attempts and 15th in the league with a 34.7 3-point percentage. That means the team yielded 1.041 points per possession off of 3-point opportunities, which would be 13th in the NBA and was way above the team average of 0.996 points per possession.
Of the potential starting lineup of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic, the players still need to work to improve their 3-point shooting abilities. However, Oladipo and Harris show a solid capability there, and Gordon and Vucevic show the potential to improve and get up to a good enough mark.
The team scored 1.092 points per possession when Harris shot threes and 1.017 points per possession when Oladipo took them, both of which are numbers superior to team average.
In comparison, Harris shot 40.4 percent from 8-16 feet out and 39.1 percent from 16-24 feet out, which yield 0.808 points per possession and 0.782 points per possession respectively from each spot.
Oladipo shot 35.6 percent from 8-16 feet out and 35.4 percent from 16-24 feet out, both yielding about 0.71 points per possession on those shots.
Clearly, taking less of those shots and more threes would lead to a higher expected output per possession.
The Magic bench appears to be strong shooting-wise, which is important in the NBA.
Channing Frye logged a three-point percentage of 39.3, although most of them were off catch-and-shoot opportunities, and Evan Fournier shot 37.8 percent. Frye’s expected value per possession on them was 1.179 and Fournier’s was 1.134.
New free agent acquisition C.J. Watson shot 40 percent from three, and Mario Hezonja also has the potential to be a potent 3-point shooter.
A team does not have to be filled with 3-point specialists in order to establish those shots as part of the game plan.
The Houston Rockets, who led the league in 3-point attempts, had only one player shoot better than 39 percent from three, and that player was Dwight Howard.
Key wing players James Harden, Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer all shot worse than 38 percent, but still took a large percentage of their shot attempts from three.
The Cleveland Cavaliers, who were second in 3-point attempts, had only Kyrie Irving and Matthew Dellavedova shoot better than 40 percent from three, and those players were third and seventh on the team respectively in attempts per game.
Versatility will be very important for the team this season. If the team establishes its 3-point shooting, it forces defenders to close out harder and enables easier drives and inside opportunities for the players.
The Magic have done a good job of collecting players who excel in many aspects of the game, and now should look to establish the more efficient shots as a bigger part of the game-plan.