The Orlando Magic have two very winnable games this week and a really tough matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. Winning all three is an near-must.
The Orlando Magic are 4-2 in the James Borrego era, and this week will offer the Magic a chance to play two teams that sit precariously ahead of it in the tight Eastern conference standings.
Sweeping all three games would put Orlando in striking distance, as it trails No. 8 Brooklyn by 5.5 games following Sunday afternoon’s (Feb 22) victory over Philadelphia.
Game 1: vs. Miami Heat, Feb. 25
The Miami Heat just lost Chris Bosh for the remainder of the season with a blood clot in his lungs. There really is no replacement for his production, which is a pity because the Heat could have been a postseason nightmare for a higher seed.
Miami obtained Goran Dragic at the deadline, and it is clear the Heat plan to eventually give him a max-contract.
A Dwyane Wade, Bosh and Dragic trio would have (and eventually will be) been a deadly combination, but as it is the Magic will really just have to counter the backcourt for Miami. The Heat are due to free fall in the standings sans Bosh, notwithstanding that Hassan Whiteside is now one of the most promising young 5-men in the league.
Make no mistake, this Heat team is not a true playoff caliber team, sitting eight games below .500. But the East is so bad right now that teams whose prospects would ordinarily be the lottery are getting into the postseason.
Raptors Rapture
Dragic scored 12 in his debut on 4-for-11 shooting versus the Pelicans, but Goran is capable of becoming a high-usage, high-scoring player to take some of the load off Wade. Mario Chalmers rounds out a good three-guard rotation. The Heat still get some high energy from Chris Andersen who is good for 1.45 steals/blocks in his 20 minutes a night.
Whiteside is really the best thing the Heat having going for it, and his development could give the Heat the exact post presence that it needs to give Wade and Dragic the room to operate on the perimeter. The Heat have a strong defense, allowing just 96.6 points per game (2nd in the NBA), but Miami is susceptible to being dominated on the glass, just as it was during the LeBron James era.
Whiteside can clean the glass, but without Bosh the Heat are further disadvantaged on the glass. This could be a game in which DeWayne Dedmon sees big minutes because his skill set can fully expose Miami’s weak second unit.
Prediction: Orlando 98, Miami 94
Game 2: At Atlanta Hawks, Feb. 27
This one could be written off as an ‘L,’ but even so it is worth looking at what the Magic could do to beat the best team in the Eastern Conference thus far.
Atlanta has been rightly labeled the San Antonio Spurs of the East, and the team’s unselfish play style has led to Atlanta’s offensive cohesion being second to none.
Atlanta gets it done on both ends of the court, allowing just 97 per game (4th in Association) and scoring 103 itself, for a +6 differential.
The ball movement accounts for 25.6 assists per game on an average of 37.9 field goals per game. Atlanta’s entire starting lineup averages 11 points per game or more, while the floor general Jeff Teague leads the team with 16.9 points per game.
Elfrid Payton has his work cut out for him defensively, and he still needs to work on his on-ball coverage, particularly in the half court. Teague will get his chances to isolate, and it will fall mostly on Payton to stop those opportunities.
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Kyle Korver is going to have a tough time with Victor Oladipo provided Oladipo is able to get his mid-range working. When the 15 footer is falling for Oladipo, he is next to impossible to guard. Korver is a sound defender and is not the unsightly blemish he was at one point in his career, but the chance to go hard at Korver and wear him out is there. He hits an unheard of 51.1 percent from three on 5.9 attempts per game and the Hawks average 9.9 made threes per game on 38.5 percent shooting.
The Hawks are also only turning the ball over 13 times per game and averaging a 1.9 assist/turnover ratio as a team. Payton and Oladipo are great at slowing down the ball movement of good teams, but somehow, Atlanta is a great team this season. While few expected the Hawks to become such a formidable squad, at this point it is too sustained to be a mirage.
Prediction: Atlanta 106, Orlando 93
Game 3: vs. Charlotte Hornets, Mar 1
The Charlotte Hornets are in a free fall and have lost its past five games, to Philadelphia, Indiana, Detroit, Oklahoma City and Dallas. All but the OKC game should have been winnable for Charlotte, but the Hornets continue to remind of the usually woeful Bobcats.
The team has too much talent to be 10 games under the .500 mark, and though Lance Stephenson has been a bust, the Hornets do not plan to cut ways with him quite yet. His value is too low at this point to warrant getting proper return, and maybe with another season in Charlotte he figures things out more.
As it is, Stephenson is playing just less than 30 minutes per game and scoring just 8.9 points per contest, posting an identical PER of 8.9. He is far below the average efficiency at his position, and given his athleticism there is no reason this should be so.
Keep an eye on him as he may try to get things going as this season winds down, if only because he has been handed the chances to shoot the ball (10.1 attempts per game), but is hitting just 37 percent from the field. He shot 15 field goals in the Hornets loss to the Mavericks on Feb 22, and the team shot an abysmal 36.7 percent too.
An 81-point effort does not result in pretty numbers, and there’s also no way Jefferson should be going 4 of 16 from the floor. This team is not playing good basketball, simply.
Mo Williams makes it possible that Stephenson, Gary Neal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist take less shots, but is that a good thing?
Williams can put the ball in the bucket, but he is a defensive liability and always has been.
Kemba Walker has improved a lot during his time in the NBA, but his numbers continue to reek, and it is partly because he is just not getting enough help from his teammates. His 39 percent field goal percentage is largely a result of having to bail his team out late in the shot clock, or just shoot too much because teammates won’t.
King James Gospel
Walker is leading the team with 18.8 points per game, and he is second in PER only to Al Jefferson.
Jefferson is a steady monster in the post, and the Hornets rightfully make sure to get him 16 shots a game. He needs to get to the line a lot more, given that he draws so much attention just to take 2.6 free throws per game.
Jefferson and Nikola Vucevic should be a nice battle in the post, though at this point it is pretty indisputable that Vucevic is a better and more dominant big man. Jefferson is finally showing signs of slowing down and his 48.7 percentage shooting and 8.6 boards attest to a guy who has definitely already peaked as an NBA player.
Prediction: Orlando 98, Charlotte 89