Over the next month, we’ll be talking with a variety of people who cover each NBA team to find out a little bit about their team, and how they expect the season to go. We’ll also find out what they believe will be the most intriguing matchup when the two team’s meet during the regular season. We continue the Southwest Division with a look at the Dallas Mavericks. We’re joined by Tim Brown of Mavs Moneyball; you can follow Tim on twitter @HalBrownNBA.
Game Dates
Saturday, January 31st @ Orlando
Wednesday, March 18th @ Dallas
Last Season: 49-33; Eighth in Western Conference; Lost in First Round To San Antonio
November 16th: Orlando 100 Dallas 108
January 13th: Dallas 107 Orlando 88
Projected Starters
Point Guard: Jameer Nelson
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis
Small Forward: Chandler Parsons
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Tyson Chandler
Apr 6, 2014; Miami, FL, USA; New York Knicks center Tyson Chandler (6) reacts during the first half against the Miami Heat at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Q: Dallas brought Tyson Chandler back this offseason. How big of an impact do you see him making this season? Will the team miss Jose Calderon‘s three-point shooting a lot, or can they replace that easily?
A: I think the real question regarding Tyson is whether or not he’ll be healthy. I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that he won’t play more than 70 games, but the Mavs are in some serious trouble if he’s not healthy for more than, like, 55. Tyson’s impact when on the court should be huge, though, I’m not worried about that. The Mavericks were starting Samuel-freaking-Dalembert last season, so it’s hard to overstate how much of an improvement Chandler will be, both on offense and defense. Dalembert was fine in his role, but Tyson is so much better in really every way. That he’s been, historically, a brilliant match with Dirk is just icing.
Jose, I think, is really the big question mark, and I honestly think much of Dallas’ fandom isn’t as concerned as they should be about losing Calderon’s shooting. I think a lot of fans are taking Dallas’ elite offense and spacing for granted, without realizing that the spacing was largely a function of having a 45% 3-point shooter on the roster. Shooting that’s that elite absolutely cannot be replaced, no matter how many “good” shooters you get. Dallas won’t be able to replicate their spacing from last season without Caldy.
Still, I think the offense will be fine. They got shooters in Jameer Nelson, Richard Jefferson, and Chandler Parsons, but with the Parsons and Tyson Chandler additions, the offense got way more versatile and athletic, if slightly less spacious, and Tyson’s defensive presence should be enormous.
Apr 30, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Chandler Parsons (25) reacts to making a three-pointer during the third quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers in game five of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Richardson-USA TODAY Sports
Q: Out is Shawn Marion, in is Chandler Parsons. How different of a dynamic will the offense, and team overall, have with Parsons in comparison to Marion? Is it an upgrade or possibly a downgrade?
A: You know, that’s a great question. I think non-Mavs fans don’t realize how much it seemed like Marion aged last season. It was like the last vestiges of the Marion we like to remember were fading fast. For most of last season The Matrix was basically a non-factor on offense. He was having a harder time getting into the lane for his funky floaters, his post game dropped off the face of the planet, and he still wasn’t a good shooter. He turned into something of a corner 3 threat, which was nice, and he was still a good cutter, but anything he really gave the team was pretty much just a bonus.
Parsons is a versatile offensive sucker punch by comparison. He’s athletic, he can operate as a pick-and-pop guy or a pick and roll ball handler, he’s a great shooter, and he’s great at cutting and moving off-ball. He’s probably better at everything that Marion was good at offensively last year, while also being a great shooter and adding another ball handler and way more flexibility to the Mavs’ system.
The result should be something of a whirling dervish offense for the Mavs. They can now run major action with at least three different players as ball handlers and at least three different players acting as screeners, with enough shooting and Dirk to run weakside action as well. It’ll be impossible for other teams to predict what the threat is at any given time, I think.
All of that said, Marion was probably the only consistently good defender for Dallas last season, and how much of an upgrade Parsons turns out to be will largely be a matter of how much defense Parsons can play. Most people seem to agree that he’s capable of defending quite well. But will he?
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Q: What’s one matchup you’ll have your eyes on when the Magic and Mavs meet this season?
A: The main matchup of interest for me will be to see how Aaron Gordon does defending Dirk or Parsons. Coach Carlisle really likes to throw Dirk out into bench lineups pretty often, so I’m sure the two will end up matched up on each other.
To the extent that Dirk struggles, he usually struggles when matched up with smaller, really athletic guys (Steven Jackson from ’07 is oft-cited example). Gordon obviously epitomizes that, and he’s billed as an elite defender. So, personally, I think a Mavs-Magic matchup will be a great litmus test on Gordon and whether or not he’ll live up to his potential. How effectively will he be able to handle an aging Dirk?
Oladipo going up against former teammate Jameer Nelson will be fun too, though, of course, for sheer drama. Former teammate battles are always a good time.
Q: What are fair expectations for the Mavs this season? Are we looking at a team that could make some noise in the West? Or a first round exit once again?
A: A lot of Mavs fandom is really optimistic. 4th seed with 55ish wins gets tossed out a lot. I’m a little more tempered in my optimism. I think there are questions about whether or not the defense really improved significantly — largely dependent on how much time Jameer Nelson and Devin Harris end up getting at point guard and on Parson’s performance — and how much the spacing will hurt the offense, if it hurts it at all. I think the Mavs got better, of course, but did they get that much more better than every other team in the West? After all, almost everyone else improved, too.
So, I think they’re a playoff lock, which I wouldn’t have said last season, and I don’t think the 4th seed is unreasonable, but I honestly really wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up with the 6th or 7th seed. I mean, who of San Antonio, OKC, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis, Golden State, and Houston can the Mavs reliably beat?
I’m pretty skeptical of most projections for the West right now just because the teams are so close that I think seeding will largely be a function of health and we have no idea who will and won’t be healthy. Dallas could really get anywhere between the 3rd and 7th seed and it would make sense to me.
As for the postseason itself? We’ll just have to see. I know the organization itself is really serious about making a legit run. I hope they’re on to something.