While Franz Wagner has logged career-best marks across the board in a turbulent season for the Orlando Magic, one red flag remains glaringly obvious—his three-point shot. More specifically, the rate at which his three-pointers find the bottom of the bucket.
A dead three-ball plagued Wagner’s reputation and legitimacy as a true second scoring option last season. After converting 36.1 percent of his threes in 2022-23, his splits took a hit in the following season, where he shot a lowly 28.1 percent.
Among 160 qualifying players, Wagner ranked dead last in three-point percentage.
Fast forward to the home stretch of the 2024-25 season and you’ll see Wagner’s just barely reached the 30 percent three-point threshold.
When you watch this Magic team, you’ll notice that they struggle to create three-point opportunities. Couple that with the worst conversion rate (31.1 percent as a team) since the mostly Kevin Love-less Minnesota Timberwolves in 2012-13 (30.5 percent as a team), and you’re destined for a disastrous product in the modern NBA.
Recency bias can skew what fans believe to be the truth. Wagner has the capability to be a trusted long-ball threat, and we’ve seen flashes of that ability in games against quality teams in the Sacramento Kings (5-6 from three in a 130-11 win), Detroit Pistons (4-8 from three in a 121-113 win) and Los Angeles Lakers (4-10 from three in a 119-118 win). The advanced stats show that Wagner is deadly from the corner, falling in the 70th percentile among wing players, boasting an inspiring 43 percent from those spots.
Contrarily, there’s more data that backs up the claim that Wagner simply cannot create from three-point land, versus the opposing numbers. When shooting non-corner threes, Wagner falls into the 10th percentile among wings with a dastardly success rate of just 28 percent.
Perhaps head coach Jamahl Mosley hasn’t seen the advanced metrics because Wagner’s only attempted 35 corner threes on the season. That number looks far worse when you learn that he’s attempted 154 non-corner threes. So what’s the solution?
2. Allow Wagner to initiate the offense more
November was Wagner’s magic month. He finished with over 20 points in 13 of the team’s 16 games that month, propelling Orlando to an 11-5 record in that frame. In lieu of Paolo Banchero’s oblique tear, Wagner was taking the ball up the court, making the first pass, initiating plays, and taking high-quality jump shots.
Someone like Banchero has seen more individual success from playing alongside a seasoned point guard like Cory Joseph, but from what we saw with Wagner in the early parts of the season, he can create his own shot and move the ball smoothly.
As talented as Banchero is, plays often stall when Mosley defers to isolation-heavy, minimal-movement offense. Those plays tend to end in Banchero’s possession, and he’s never seen a shot he doesn’t like. Wagner subsequently gets shafted when the offense hits a dead end and can often be the catalyst for low-quality looks from beyond the arc as the shot clock winds down.
Ego doesn’t hinder this team in any way, shape, or form, so asking Banchero to lessen his usage rate to allow Wagner to maximize his offensive abilities shouldn’t ruffle any feathers.
1. Encourage more movement in the offense to set Wagner up in the corner
Criticizing the Magic’s offense is like beating a dead horse —We know how bad it’s looked this season. I’d be remiss not to emphasize how stagnant their offensive production can look when four non-shooters stand pat on the three-point line, and Wendell Carter Jr. shifts from elbow to elbow waiting for a pass.
The pick-and-roll is rarely utilized in this Magic offense, as the team sits seventh-to-last in PnR points per possession. Those isolation plays that Banchero and Wagner are renowned for in Mosley’s offense will typically end in a desperation heave or a last-second pass to a shooter who’s stood at the same spot on the three-point line for the entire possession if the play goes sour. Those kinds of plays are easily forecasted by opposing teams, and they can predict the outcome.
The Magic shouldn’t try shooting their way out of a team-wide slump. That being said, Wagner should be given attempts from the corner before the shot clock has three seconds left on it.
Wagner’s woes from three-point land are a byproduct of an offense that has struggled to maximize his three-level scoring capabilities. New schemes, different play calls, and upgraded assignments as a ball-handler could shift the negative narrative around one of the league’s brightest young stars.
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