Distrust the Process: Were the Orlando Magic right to ditch their rebuild?
Moving younger assets and adding veteran pieces this offseason, the Magic showed that they are done rebuilding and intend to win now. Can this plan work?
Trading away younger assets and signing veteran pieces this offseason, the Orlando Magic showed they are done rebuilding and intend to win now. The lineup changes they made just a few weeks into the season was further evidence of this shift.
The Magic tried, perhaps prematurely, to jump start their rebuild this offseason from step two to three.
Their confusing roster construction will not do much more than buy the franchise some time before having to bottom out once again.
This, it would seem is a natural cycle and step in rebuilding — asset collection, attempts at contention, contention or tear down.
Zach Mikash wrote for Denver Stiffs earlier this month about the five stages of an NBA rebuild — bottoming out, acquiring youth, returning to relevancy, reaching perennial playoff contention, and eventually contending for a championship.
"Perhaps the most discouraging part of going into a rebuild is that history has shown for every successful rebuild that leads to championship contention, there are many more that accomplish nothing more than a brief rise to mediocrity and then a sudden drop back into rebuilding. However, when a team does have a successful rebuild they usually work through five stages (sometimes four if they get out ahead of it early) and for the most part, each of the five stages takes at least a year to complete."
The process of bottoming out, accumulating assets and re-attaining relevancy generally takes anywhere between 4-6 years. That was the case for pre-Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors, pre-LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers, the pre-Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle Sonics and many more franchises that put their faith in the process.
After periods of egregiously bad regular seasons and relatively poor attendance, each of these teams managed to emerge as championship contenders. The Philadelphia 76ers hope to do the same within the next few seasons.
But the Magic never got their Durant. They never got a James, a Curry or even a Joel Embiid. Their golden geese seemed to elude them every step of the way.
They were one pick short in the Lottery of both Kristaps Porzingis and Embiid. They got the second pick in a historically weak draft, selecting Victor Oladipo right after arguably one of the biggest busts in league history, Anthony Bennett.
None of these consolation prizes yielded the results any team would need to return to relevancy, let alone championship contention.
Maybe the problem was getting the right coach too late. Maybe the timing was never quite right.
Either way, heading into year five of the rebuild, the Magic decided it was time for plan B. The rebuild was not moving in the direction they wanted it to. And that is not entirely anyone’s fault.
Regardless of how the rebuild went, the Magic decided they could not afford to wait past 2017 for a playoff run.
“This is the longest period of time for our franchise not to be in the playoffs,” said Alex Martins, the team’s CEO, to ESPN. “Our fans deserve a winning product.”
Their picks and development were not progressing how they (or anyone else) would have wanted. So they made moves.
They traded away Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless essentially for cap space. Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis went to Oklahoma City for Serge Ibaka. Free agents Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin and Jeff Green signed on as well, with Biyombo and Augustin receiving deals that will likely keep them in Orlando longer than many of the Magic’s younger players.
Now what remains of the young core the Magic assembled in the past four years is taking a backseat to these newly-acquired veterans.
Can this plan work?
It is always hard to tell which rebuilds will be successful and which will not. It often comes down to luck – lottery picks play a huge role, and the Magic got the short end of the stick there.
Many rebuilding teams stall during the process until core players leave (e.g. Carmelo Anthony in Denver) or they decide their roster has not developed how they had hoped, and they hit the reset button again by selling their assets for picks and prospects.
Adding all the veterans the Magic did this past season unavoidably gets in the way of developing younger players.
For example, even if Mario Hezonja would never fully pan out for the Magic, giving him more minutes would at least increase his value as a trade asset. Letting Aaron Gordon play to his strengths at the 4 would do the same.
The 2017 Magic simply have too many pieces for everyone to get the minutes they need at the positions where they thrive. And they know it.
The Sixers have a similar problem with frontcourt congestion, except theirs was created through the draft. While the Sixers have a set of young centers and forwards with great upside who will draw trade deadline attention, the Magic now have a frontcourt and overall roster construction that is aging more than it is showing upside.
Whether the Magic will buy, sell or do neither at the deadline remains to be seen. But based on the depth chart, Nikola Vucevic looks like he could be one of the first to go. That would be a sure sign the Magic are fully content with abandoning their rebuild.
If Vucevic leaves, the Magic are stuck with a declining Ibaka and four years with Biyombo and Augustin. Gordon will continue playing out of position at the 3 and Elfrid Payton may or may not develop any further.
As these veterans age and young players either leave or fail to develop without the minutes they need, the team will have to bottom out again in hopes of assembling a young core that fits and can win.
If this stage of the Magic’s rebuild fails, tearing it all down again is the only way forward. Unless the team feels content with mediocrity or strikes it big on a risky young free agent.
The Magic have done their best with the hand “the Process” dealt them. Their current roster construction is ugly and will not compete for a championship.
Next: OMD Roundtable: Lineups and Rotations
But it will buy the franchise some time and a chance to try their luck once again.