Tobias Harris: Numbers Versus ‘The Eye Test’

Superficially Tobias Harris puts up numbers that warrant his new contract, but basketball is about more than scoring and grabbing boards.

The argument guys can put up “empty numbers” is not an invalid one. Particularly on poor teams, stats can be inflated and overall metrics sometimes fail to tell the full picture. In the case of Tobias Harris, the numbers are self-evident: 17 points, six boards and 36 percent 3-point shooting.

Those numbers alone dictate Harris is a bona fide starter. But now with his $64-million, four-year contract, more is expected.

Perhaps unfairly, Harris is now going to be evaluated on the basis of a large contract. The salaries handed out this offseason were market dictated, but the deals still come with expectations.

And from this: Harris cannot throw up numbers while the Magic lose mass games and still warrant the money he is now receiving. Giving Harris the contract was nearly a no-brainer after striking out on Paul Millsap (maybe even with getting Millsap too considering Harris’ production and age), but that does not mean he can just score 18 points and grab six boards — and be worth it.

The matter of whether Harris puts up “empty” numbers is a very subjective thing.

On one hand, Harris shoots 46.6 percent from the field. That is a respectable mark.

But there are glaring holes in that 46 percent. First off, Harris shoots just 38 percent from 3-10 feet and just 36 percent from 10-16 feet. That would not be so problematic maybe if Harris did not take 32.3 percent of his shots from the mid-range.

While many will argue that the mid-range shot is a waste of time, it is really not. It is the shot defenses most concede. When Elfrid Payton breaks down the defense, Harris is going to be required to knock down those shots.

Next: What does Harris' 3-point shot chart reveal?