Have we undersold Tobias Harris?
Tobias Harris can be a divisive player among Orlando Magic fans. His salary will pay him like a star. Can he develop into one? Can fans accept him as one?
NBA free agency is the time to believe the grass is already greener on the other side. July and February before the trade deadline are when every NBA fan covets what the other teams have. Everyone is up for grabs.
The Magic were not expected to be big players in free agency. A 25-win season is not going to entice very many players to switch teams, even if the money is good. Paul Millsap certainly did not think so.
The Magic’s summer was largely spent looking to maintain the confidence of young players and await their internal improvement and growth.
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It is this “grass is always greener” mentality that may have left the Tobias Harris on the outside of the “marquee” free agents. He did receive a max offer sheet from at least one team — reportedly the Sacramento Kings, according to Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders — and had plenty of interest as a guy who can score 17 points per game at 23 years old (he just turned 23 on July 15).
For Magic fans, those who had watched him play for much of the past two and a half years, the response to retaining Harris was lukewarm.
There were plenty of people who were unsure of his fit. Or favored another of the Magic’s many young players in the rebuild over Harris. Or argued the offense ran smoother without him and his sometimes ball-stopping ways. Or any number of reasons that seemed to be just fans nitpicking a game and a player they have seen too much.
Or some type of psychological preparation and justification for losing a player like Harris.
At the end of the day, Harris’ play almost speaks for itself. He averaged 17.1 points per game and shot a 51.2 percent effective field goal percentage, his improved 3-point shooting helping it climb above 50 percent for the first time in his career. For all the perceived problems there might have been about Harris, the young player made some incredible improvements.
There is no reason to think he could not make more.
His statistics also put him in some elite company. There are few players his age doing what he is doing. Harris might be more well known if not for the team’s poor record (Harris might forever be dogged with the “best player on a bad team” label until the Magic start winning).
Still looking at Harris’ game, and there remains a lot to like.
He fits in the positionless wave that is coming through basketball — he can play either the 3 or 4 and he fits in really well next to the versatile Aaron Gordon — and continues to show improvement in some key areas.
"With league executives continuing to trend in the direction of the Golden State Warriors’ style of pace-and-space offense, you’d figure a player as versatile as Harris would’ve garnered more offseason attention — especially when some have gone so far as to describe the Islip, New York native as a poor man’s Carmelo Anthony. Harris certainly isn’t as gifted a scorer as ‘Melo, but his price tag at least made him a viable option for teams in search of scoring punch.At his age, Harris still has plenty of time to take his game to the next level — at both ends of the floor. Sure, there’s always the possibility that Harris’ marked improvement from the perimeter last season was an aberration — which, if coupled with continued neglect at the defensive end, could make him nothing more than an inefficient ball-stopper."
Adams breaks down some pretty impressive numbers from Harris last year.
The biggest one is the shooting improvement we saw from Harris, particularly from beyond the arc.
Harris shot a career-high 36.4 percent from beyond the arc last year. But where he got those shots was even more impressive:
It is not the prettiest shot chart in the world. But considering where Harris started and where he has come it is a positive sign. And that above-league-average shooting from the right corner and about-league-average shooting from the left corner bode well for a player developing his 3-point shot.
Harris is becoming a better 3-point shooter.
And, as Adams noted, Harris is one seven players to shoot at least 35 percent from beyond the arc and grab six or more rebounds per game. The others on that list include LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Bosh and Magic target Paul Millsap. Good company no matter how you want to split it.
Where the criticism for Harris comes is the areas where his shot chart looks green. His most efficient areas throughout much of his career has been that midrange jumper. That is not the most efficient place to score. That has always been an issue for him.
Harris’ inefficiency though might be overstated. He was third on the team in points per half-court touch with 0.446, behind only centers Dewayne Dedmon and Nikola Vucevic. Among players who averaged at least 30 minutes per game, that ranked 21st in the league last year.
That goes against intuition it seems. Especially for those of us who have watched him closely.
His defense certainly leaves plenty to be desired still — his defensive box plus/minus is -0.7 points per 100 possessions below the league average player according to Basketball-Reference. But the Magic showed confidence in him at times and he did occasionally rise to the occasion.
And Harris still gets most of his shots and catch-and-shoots — 4.2 points per game on 38 percent shooting, but a 53.2 percent effective field goal percentage, and 3.9 attempts per game, most coming from beyond the arc. His most efficient scoring method is on drives — 3.0 points per game on his 3.9 drives per game, shooting 43.7 percent according to SportVU, but few opportunities for assists as only 0.8 more points per game come off Harris drives.
He tends to favor drives more than pull-up shots, where Victor Oladipo is still a major pull-up shooter. Harris just has to increase his efficiency and playmaking to become more effective.
It feels like Harris still has one more piece to his game to unlock and then he could really start cooking.
The point is also that Harris is just 22 years old (HAPPY BIRTHDAY! Harris turned 23 on July 15) and has plenty of room to grow. Returning to a defensive-minded coach like Scott Skiles could unlock a new part of his game and unleash him more on the NBA. He could be well worth the investment.
Maybe our closeness and somewhat frustration with his low assist numbers — 8.8 percent assist rate — blinds us to how good Harris really is.