What Will be the Market Value of Kyle O’Quinn, Tobias Harris?

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As is the case with most rebuilding efforts, the eventual result is that a roster begins to take shape. For Orlando Magic GM Rob Hennigan, that means he will have some choices to make. 

These will not be easy decisions, for making the wrong one can result in the franchise failing to ascend past mediocrity. 

Two players merit in-depth looks as both will be restricted free agents this offseason.

Kyle O’Quinn

When the Orlando Magic selected Kyle O’Quinn out of Norfolk State, not a lot was expected of the late second rounder. He was a big body that could maybe carve out a career as a banging reserve center. Did he have skills beyond that?  We just did not know. Maybe Hennigan suspected it, but to be sure, the bar was not set high for O’Quinn. Expectations were low.

He quickly began to prove all of this wrong, and now with his recent play during Nikola Vucevic’s injury, he has begun to assert himself as the type of player that could be a key rotation man on a contending team. That means the Magic will be forced to either pay O’Quinn or watch the long and gifted big man bolt to a team that can justify his contract.

See, the Magic need the financial flexibility to chase a big name free agent eventually, be it this summer or next, and signing Kyle could hamper those chances. But is it even more detrimental to let a blossoming big man go?

Talented 4/5-men just do not come in abundance in the Association, and the ones that can actually play demand a premium salary. At no other position does being a mediocre talent gain a player more than $8 million per season.

At center, it does.

In terms of salaries offered to O’Quinn, it is difficult to get a gauge necessarily. He is going to be at least offered mid-level money ($4.5-5 million per season), but as to whether he commands more, it is difficult to say. And his restricted free agency may demand some more creative accounting.

He is becoming one of the best defenders of the pick and roll the Magic have (the best big man, at least), and that is an underrated facet of defense in the league.

O’Quinn is not exceptionally quick, but he moves his feet effectively, is long and has great timing at the rim. Kyle can finish.

He is going to get paid, but the question is whether the Magic can afford to shell out $5-plus million after signing Channing Frye to help spread the court. Frye is a solid starting 4-man in the mold of Rashard Lewis, which tempers the impact O’Quinn could ever make with Vucevic essentially the franchise talent starting at center.

O’Quinn has seen 23 minutes per game the last two contests while posting nine points and 5.5 boards per game. While he is a solid finisher and high percentage shooter, these attributes, even with his intangibles, may cause another team to out-price the Magic for his services.

Beyond all this, the Magic may just opt to go with the far less expensive Dwayne Dedmon, who will likely remain not much more than a minimum contract. Dedmon posts an average PER (15.2) and averages nearly 10 points and 12 rebounds per-36 minutes.

Double-double type play from a guy who sees 11 minutes a night speaks volumes to the options the Magic have in the post.  In other words, the disappointment of Andrew Nicholson barely matters at all.

Tobias Harris

Dec 15, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward James Johnson (3) dribbles the ball guarded by Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) during the second half of the Raptors 95-82 win at Air Canada Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Tobias Harris asserted himself quickly in the SEC his freshman season at Tennessee, making the 2nd team all-SEC and first team All-Freshman.  But GMs were not sure how Tobias would fit in the NBA, given his classic “tweener” type of game.

He is very much in the mold of Carmelo Anthony, but is that a good thing?

Harris is posting more than 18 points per game, but it is being done on a poor team.  What would he post as a third or fourth option?

Carmelo has proven to be a scorer to be sure, but he has struggled defensively over his career, and Harris has hardly shined on that end as well.

It is difficult to match up as a tweener. Moreover, Harris’ skill set is difficult to assign to one forward slot or the other. He is not a post player nor does he have the strength to man the 4-spot full-time necessarily (against bigger players and talents).

His improved shooting (38 percent on 3-pointers) increases his chances of platooning, but the Magic also have No. 4 overall draft pick Aaron Gordon waiting in the wings.

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This all may hurt Harris in free agency.  Theoretically, he could command $8 to $10 million, but that is if a team is willing to gamble on his talent developing into that of a legitimate starter. Harris certainly seems to be betting he can get more as an amount in that range appeared to be a non-starter for him in negotiations with the Magic this summer. Both seem fine with entering restricted free agency this summer.

In all reality, Harris may function best as a sixth man, which makes that level of salary the absolute max he could command. The Magic are a rebuilding team to be sure, but other than another rebuilding team, which clubs would actually feature a high scorer like Harris as a No. 2 option in the offense? It is just that he likely is not that level of player, most especially because of his defensive limitations.

Dec 13, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) shoots a layup over Atlanta Hawks center Al Horford (15) and forward DeMarre Carroll (5) during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Atlanta Hawks 100-99. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Magic need a good rim protector at power forward, even with Vucevic emerging as a better one. Harris only offers great rebounding, and that may not be enough to convince Rob Hennigan he is the type of guy the Magic want starting there.

It might end up the Magic let Harris walk, not because he is not talented, but simply because he is not the right fit at this point, for this team or at the salary he gets offered.

Harris is a great talent, and the Magic may eventually somewhat regret it to see him flourish on another club. But if the Magic eventually needed to part ways to put the touches on the roster, it would have to be accepted that sometimes the situation just isn’t quite right.

It is strange to think the leading scorer and third highest PER on the team is expendable, but it is just the case. At least Orlando has the right to match any offer he receives and really consider his worth on the open market.