It's win and in: Every Orlando Magic postseason scenario entering the final day
Every Orlando Magic Playoff Scenario for the Final Game
If the Orlando Magic lose...
Where the most likely outcome for the Orlando Magic is to land in the 5-seed if they win (six of the eight possible scenarios if they win), the most likely outcome for the Magic if they lose is that they will fall to the 8-seed.
That is because, like the other opponents the Orlando Magic face, the Miami Heat are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. With a Heat win and a Magic loss, the Heat would win the Southeast Division, making potential tiebreakers with the Magic very messy.
The most likely scenario if the Magic lose on Sunday is to prepare for a road trip for the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday or Wednesday (the game will be on Wednesday if the Sixers finish seventh because of a Philadelphia Flyers game at Wells Fargo Center).
3. The Orlando Magic finish as the 7-seed if:
Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers DEFEAT Atlanta Hawks AND
Miami Heat LOSE to Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers result does not matter
(Magic play Heat in Play-In Tournament)
OR
Magic LOSE to Bucks AND
Pacers LOSE to Hawks AND
76ers DEFEAT Nets AND
Heat DEFEAT Raptors
(Magic play Pacers in Play-In Tournament)
The most likely matchup for the Play-In Tournament is a Magic vs. Heat matchup.
The only way the Magic host the Pacers is if the Pacers lose their game and the Heat win, creating a three-way tie where the Heat win the tiebreaker as division champions, leaving the Magic to beat the Pacers based on head-to-head.
If the Magic are in the Play-In Tournament as the 7-seed, they are most likely to host the Heat.
But it is about an equal chance for the Magic to finish seventh or eighth in the Eastern Conference -- three of the eight possibilities for each. But certainly, it is more likely the Magic fall to eighth with a loss because of who the teams are facing.
4. The Orlando Magic finish as the 8-seed if:
Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers DEFEAT Atlanta Hawks AND
Miami Heat DEFEAT Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers' Result Does Not Matter
(Orlando Magic play Philadelphia 76ers with Brooklyn Nets win;
play Heat with 76ers win in Play-In Tournament)
OR
Magic LOSE to Bucks AND
Pacers LOSE to Hawks AND
76ers LOSE to Nets AND
Heat DEFEAT Raptors
(Magic play Pacers in Play-In Tournament)
This includes the chaos scenario where all four teams involved in these seeds finish with the same 46-36 record. That is the only way for the Pacers to finish ahead of the Magic in a tiebreaker scenario.
In that chaos scenario, the Heat win the tiebreaker as the Southeast Division champions. The Sixers take sixth with the best head-to-head record among the three remaining teams at 4-2, the Pacers are second in that tiebreaker at 3-3 and the Magic are last at 2-4.
As you can see, there are far more likely scenarios than the chaos scenario where the Magic finish eighth if they lose and have to go on the road for the Play-In Tournament.
The odds are with the way the games lineup is if the Magic lose they fall to eighth and hit the road for their first Play-In opportunity.