Orlando Magic's 2024-25 season hinges on Jalen Suggs' growth

Even before Jalen Suggs had his difficult first two seasons in the NBA, he was a prospect who was hard to pin down.

He was an off-guard with point guard potential who did not play like a point guard. He was an ace scorer who was not a dominant scorer at the college level.

The only thing everyone seemed sure of in the draft process was that he was going to be a plus defender. However, even the most optimistic outlooks did not see him as one of the best defensive players in the league already.

His first two seasons brought a lot of doubt. He struggled with injuries and his shot never came around. His spot in the starting lineup last year was not locked in stone entering the season.

Suggs has transformed himself in just one year. He embraced his role as the team's defensive ace. He stayed healthy and reined in his excesses. He became a knockdown shooter.

Suggs became the team's heart and soul. And his transformation was as key to transforming the Orlando Magic into a playoff team as anything else that took place last year.

Suggs will need to take another step for the Magic to take the next step. He will need to make good on all the promises from his draft profile. He will need to do more.

Everyone recognized the Magic needed a point guard and playmaker. Instead, the Magic grabbed a backcourt running mate and seemingly handed the reins of the team to Suggs to man the position, giving him responsibilities he has not always succeeded with.

The Magic are betting on Suggs' continued growth as a key part of their growth this season. Suggs has a lot of responsibility on his shoulders.

Suggs reclaimed his potential in 2024

Before thinking about where Jalen Suggs needs to go, it is worth considering just how far he came in the 2024 season.

Suggs averaged a career-high 12.6 points per game and shot 39.7 percent from three after shooting 21.4 and 32.7 percent from three his first two seasons.

Suggs was always a strong defender and one of the Magic's best perimeter defenders, but he took it to another level in being named to the NBA's all-defensive second team. There is a reason Suggs will be one of the top perimeter defenders in NBA 2K25. He has built a defensive reputation.

The bigger story was his availability.

After playing 48 and 53 games in his first two years, Suggs played in 75 games for the Magic last year. Suggs will play through injuries—he injured his wrist in December and was often seen flexing it and it is impossible not to think his Game 2 knee injury scare was not slowing him down somewhat through the playoffs.

Suggs still has plenty of believers. Sam Vecenie ranked him No. 19 on his top 24 players under 24 for the Game Theory Podcast and has long been a believer in Suggs. He sees a player on the cusp of figuring things out beyond being a top defender:

Suggs' 2024 season was a true breakthrough.

A lot of it comes from his doggedness on defense. But his ceiling was always going to be determined by what he could provide offensively. That shift in his 3-point shooting was dramatic and was part of why the Magic took such a huge leap.

The improvement offensively is staggering.

He shot 40.7 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers according to Second Spectrum after making 34.8 percent in 2023 and 22.2 percent in 2022. He made 37.8 percent of his pull-up 3-pointers after making 30.3 and 19.0 percent in his first two years.

For a Magic team starved for shooting, that transformation made Suggs vital to everything the team did. Suggs firmly entrenched himself not only as the emotional center for the team but a vital player wit his scoring and his spacing.

The Magic do not make the Playoffs without Suggs setting the tone defensively and without Suggs being such a weapon on offense.

The Magic's bet on Suggs is different in 2025

The Orlando Magic seemed pretty set to move on with Jalen Suggs as their super sixth man in 2024. They could have easily stuck with Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris as that was a successful lineup to end the 2023 season. Suggs pushed his way into the fray. That is what you want young players to do.

Suggs now is firmly entrenched in the starting lineup. And Orlando planned this critical offseason knowing Suggs would be in the starting lineup.

The decisions they made then show what they intend from Suggs this year. And the bet they are making on his development.

Orlando exited the Playoffs with at least observers confirmed with the team's playmaking and guard play. Paolo Banchero said the team should pursue a table-setter and playmaker to ease his playmaking responsibility.

The Magic's addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was decidedly not for playmaking, even if Caldwell-Pope will greatly boost the team's other major weakness, their outside shooting.

Suggs entered the league with potential as a playmaker.

He averaged 4.5 assists per game in his lone season at Gonzaga (playing alongside another playmaking guard in Andrew Nembhard, it should be noted). He averaged 4.4 assists per game in his rookie year.

But whether because of injuries or the team trying to rein in his turnovers and wild driving, Suggs has seen his assists drop to 2.9 per game in 2023 and 2.7 per game last year. His turnovers, for that part, decreased from 3.0 in his rookie year to 1.8 in each of the last two years.

Suggs' usage rate has also dropped from a star-level 25.3 percent his rookie year to 20.3 percent in 2023 and 19.7 percent last year. According to data from Second Spectrum, Suggs averaged only 21.3 frontcourt touches per game, trailing the superstars in Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner but also trailing Wendell Carter.

He was even driving less, focusing more on his shooting and floor spacing. According to Second Spectrum, he averaged only 4.5 drives per game, shooting a much-improved 52.3 percent on those drives and dishing out 0.5 assists per game. This is down from 9.0 drives per game with a 38.4 percent field goal percentage and 1.1 turnovers per game from his rookie year.

All this suggests the Magic have spent a lot of time taking the ball out of Suggs' hands. They have more carefully defined his role to accentuate his strengths and rein in some of his wildness from his early years.

But clearly the Magic are betting on growth with their young players.

Suggs showed some signs of improvement after the All-Star Break, averaging 3.4 assists per game. He had 4.7 drives per game with a 63.0 percent field goal percentage and 0.6 assists per game.

And if the Magic saw Suggs improve as a shooter with a healthy summer and they instructed him to work on his playmaking and pick-and-roll play—the Magic posted 0.80 points per possession on 1.9 pick-and-roll possessions with Suggs as the ball handler according to NBA.com —they may be expecting him to take a sizable leap.

Considering what the Magic probably needed, it seems the Magic are betting on Suggs developing a new dimension to his game.

The Magic need Suggs to step up to succeed

The Orlando Magic have made it clear what they believe they can accomplish this season. They see themselves competing for homecourt advantage after finishing with the 5-seed last year and the additions they brought to the team. The players certainly believe the league is sleeping on their improvement.

There are still tons of questions the Magic have to answer. A lot of them center on the team's growth.

Undoubtedly, the Magic need Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to play at an All-Star level to take their next steps. But whether the Magic break through to homecourt advantage or the contender tier will be Suggs' development as a point guard or lead guard.

Orlando can probably survive as what the team was last year with moderate improvements. But so much of the team is centered on Suggs.

He is the "head of the snake" defensively as so many players and coaches put it last year. Suggs will have to be a dominant defensive force for the Magic, setting the physical and aggressive tone the team needs.

But Suggs will also need to improve his offensive output and playmaking. Those were missing ingredients in the Playoffs and throughout the season.

The Magic did not seek out a new point guard, placing their trust in Suggs' development to give the team the creator they need and the safety valve Banchero and Wagner need too.

Orlando is still debating whether to offer an extension for Suggs. Suggs is likely debating whether to accept that deal or try to play himself into a larger contract. That decision dances in the background of everything for this team.

But for Orlando to take its next step, Suggs has to step into a role he has not played before. And the Magic will need more from Suggs to leap into contention.