OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Harrison Brown: Paint Dominance
This series will inevitably be won or lost based on how the Orlando Magic can score around the basket.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the larger frontcourts in the league and both are elite defensively. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have earned top 10 voting for Defensive Player of the Year in the past.
The Magic and Cavs were among the best teams in the league defending the paint. Cleveland was fourth in the league giving up 46.5 points in the paint per game while Orlando was eighth giving up 47.5 points in the paint per game.
Orlando relies heavily on scoring in the paint to succeed. The Magic are eighth in the league, averaging 51.8 points in the paint per game, a number that was slipping after the All-Star Break.
The Cavs despite their size and interior defense with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are not a great rebounding team. They finished 14th in defensive rebound rate at 72.1 percent (despite perceptions of the Magic being a poor rebounding team, they finished second).
The Cavs are just 22nd in offensive rebound rate. The Magic are seventh, and offensive rebounds are one way the Magic make up for their lack of shooting.
Orlando needs to finish in the paint to have success as the team makes the fewest amount of threes per game.
Coach Jamahl Mosley can tweak the way the team initiates offense and looks to score, but this team has consistently relied on scoring around the rim.
The Magic are constructed to punish teams in the lane and the Cavs are built to protect it.
If Orlando can get one of Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen in foul trouble early it will open things up. This young roster, specifically Paolo Banchero, can draw fouls as the Magic shoot the most free throws per game in the NBA.
I will be the optimist and on the shoulders of Banchero I think Orlando can secure their first playoff series win since the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010.