A lot is unpredictable in the NBA. But one thing remains true: A team's outlook can change quickly.
One moment, a team could be in a terrible place -- stuck in salary cap purgatory or on the treadmill of mediocrity -- and have no future. And then things can turn around, and the team is suddenly a contender and thinking big.
The Orlando Magic have had some of that whiplash.
They saw themselves stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity without a clear way forward when they reset the team in 2021. They stockpiled some picks, and in two years they had a budding star in Franz Wagner and the No. 1 pick in Paolo Banchero.
They were a trendy, young team.
Orlando took two playoff defeats and doubled down on its core, sending out four first-round picks for Desmond Bane to boost the team's shooting. Everyone jumped on board with that move and proclaimed the Magic, perhaps prematurely, contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Three straight first-round exits later, including last year's disappointing season, and the mood on the Magic has soured. Nobody considers this team a contender in the East, having failed to prove itself much in the standings the last two seasons after a playoff breakthrough.
Everyone is selling Magic stock. The team's future has changed.
And for reasonable reasons.
Orlando needs to prove that its present is worth investing in because that is the team's future. With so much draft capital out the door, the Magic have no choice but to believe in what they have, flaws and all.
"They have a very full roster, but it always feels like they could us more shooting even after getting Bane, even with Franz getting better, even with Paolo getting better," Gavin Schall said on Locked On NBA's future draft rankings. "Maybe I am arguing against myself. This is really a bet on Franz Wagner and maybe their offense wasn't totally maximized under [Jamahl Mosley]. Sean Sweeney, who at the very least should get their defense back to the top-5 levels they were before last season. I think Orlando is going to be a perennial 50-win type of team. The question is how much higher they can go?"
That really hits at the heart of the Magic's dilemma.
While some predictions have the Magic falling out of the postseason, very few people think the Magic are not capable of making the Playoffs. But that is not enough. The Magic still aspire to more.
They can still achieve more.
Even with all the frustrations from last year, the Orlando Magic still finished with 45 wins and one game behind the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks for fifth in the East. The team was not far from accomplishing what it set out for.
The rest of the East caught up. The Magic did very little to try to match the moves around them. And they are capped out with no control over their draft.
The future is this roster. That has led to a sense of urgency.
The future is this roster
What does it mean to say the future is this roster?
It means, quite literally, that the Orlando Magic cannot lean on the Draft to fill in young players on this roster.
Orlando will need to navigate the first and second aprons with little draft capital -- after the 2027 draft, the Magic's next three picks either belong to someone else or have a condition on them. The next moves will be swapping veteran players or deconstructing the roster to get more comfortably near or under the luxury tax.
As things stand, the Magic are roughly $2.5 million beneath the second apron for this season. That severely handicapped their ability to hit the market. Without a willingness or desire to break up the starting lineup, trades to improve the roster dried up.
The Magic are paying the price now for a roster with deep offensive flaws and mediocre draft selections that have not fully panned out.
Orlando may well have gotten better by bringing in Nikola Vucevic on a minimum contract. But that is not exactly moving the needle on perception.
What would do that is a restored faith in the team's star players.
Franz Wagner's reputation has taken a hit after back-to-back injury-filled season. He played in only 34 games. But most of the national media community believes Wagner is a saving grace for this team and should be the team's anchor player.
Paolo Banchero has become a punching bag after a difficult season where he failed to get the team out of the first round with three chances to clinch the series and generally struggled with his jumper -- despite a career-best field goal percentage.
There were plenty of other causes for concern.
The offense has never quite evolved -- even though last year was the team's best ranking in the NBA in offensive rating since Dwight Howard left in 2012.
The team invested a lot in Jalen Suggs, but he continues to struggle with injuries and struggled for a second straight postseason.
Now that the team is over-leveraged after the Desmond Bane trade, it is hard to see a path forward. The only thing Jeff Weltman could really do is hope that injuries explained part of the team's frustrations and that a new coach can unlock the next level.
If that does not happen, there are tough decisions on the horizon.
Is there still time?
The Orlando Magic are feeling the pressure entering this season.
In the new NBA, teams cannot stay this expensive and not compete for championships. The Magic need to see a pathway to win a title after this season.
That does not mean the team needs to explore trades of its two star players. It does not mean that this team is due for another chaotic season where things completely blow up -- they never truly did last year, as bad as things were.
But if the season ends up with another Play-In appearance, the Magic will have to ask themselves some existential questions.
But there is still time.
The reality is that this is still a fairly young team. Wagner turned 25 this week. Banchero turns 24 in November. Nikola Vucevic and Jevon Carter are the only players on the roster older than 30 years old.
If Banchero and Wagner have solid seasons, the Magic can deconstruct the roster and try again with those two as the anchors.
And the right trade moves could completely shift the narrative around this team quickly.
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