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Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; April 6 in New Orleans
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orleans | 98.3 | 111.2 | 119.9 | 51.7 | 32.8 | 15.1 | 25.4 |
Orlando | 100.3 | 105.8 | 109.1 | 49.9 | 27.3 | 15.2 | 30.6 |
OMD Prediction
Our Record: 6-3/4-5 ATS
The Orlando Magic are certainly happy to be home. They have defended their home floor well throughout the last few years, going 29-12 at home last year.
Every one of the Magic's numbers looked significantly better at home, especially their offensive numbers—they had a 115.5 offensive rating at home last year compared to 112.9 overall. In two home games so far, the Magic have a 118.7 offensive rating.
If the Magic are eager to see the ball go in the basket after that rough road trip, returning to the home floor will be a big boost. The Magic need to get a little bit of confidence considering the quality of the shots they are getting.
Their opponent to open this five-game homestand will help.
The New Orleans Pelicans own the worst defense in the league in the early part of the season. This game may well be the resistible force against the movable object. The question to ask is which team is closer to their real self in the numbers?
Call me crazy, but I am betting on the Magic's offense to find its breakthrough at last.
The Pelicans being without Dejounte Murray (left hand fracture), CJ McCollum (right adductor strain), Herbert Jones (right shoulder strain), Trey Murphy III (right hamstring strain) and Jordan Hawkins (low back tightness) only makes that hill harder to climb. And Zion Williamson is questionable with left hamstring tightness.
The Pelicans have a tall mountain to climb indeed.
3 Things to Watch
3. Trust the 3-point process
After Monday's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, coach Jamahl Mosley said the obvious that his team needed to make shots after hitting only 5 of 34 3-pointers in the game. But he said something that was not so obvious: He liked the shots they got and wants the team to continue taking them.
The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league at the moment. They are not hitting shots. And even their good shooters are struggling to shoot the ball effectively—nobody had Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at worse than 30-percent shooting on their Bingo card.
But the looks they are getting are good ones, at least on paper.
According to NBA.com's stats database, 17 of the Magic's 34 3-point attempts in Monday's loss came with the closest defender six or more feet away. The other 17 came with the closest defender 4-6 feet away.
The Orlando Magic were more measured in Wednesday's loss to the Indiana Pacers going 7 for 25 from three. They went 5 for 14 with the closest defender six or more feet away and 2 for 8 with the closest defender 4-6 feet away.
Overall, the Magic are fourth in the league generating 22.4 3-point attempts per game with the closest defender six or more feet away. On top of that, they lead the league with 14.0 corner 3-point attempts per game.
These are quality 3-point shots. The Magic just have to make them.
2. Play the Paint
The breakthrough for the Orlando Magic in their loss to the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday was their dominance in the paint. The Magic scored 70 points in the paint and had 10 offensive rebounds as they devoured up second-chance points.
For a team desperate for offense and struggling to score, any chance the team can get for easy baskets or steal extra possessions, the team has to take. And that was a big factor in the Magic keeping that game close and being able to fight back. Orlando stole extra possessions and put constant pressure on the rim.
The Magic have lagged on points in the paint all season long. After scoring 51.8 points in the paint per game last year (eighth in the league), Orlando is averaging 45.1 per game (20th in the league).
Orlando is still getting to the line a decent amount. But the Magic's free throw rate sits at 26.8 in the last five games. It has ben solid but inconsistent, like so many other things during this losing streak, but it is one of the many pieces the team can still put together.
1. Brandon Ingram on the block
Brandon Ingram went through a full summer trying to get his max extension this summer. The New Orleans Pelicans held the line and went to a stalemate. And trade rumors filled the difference as everyone wondered if the Pelicans would move on from him.
We are still a month away from trade season officially opening and for now things are settled. A lot of that is because Ingram has played really well. He is a scorer and is doing it at the highest level he has in his career.
Ingram is averaging 24.1 points per game on 49.4/36.1/87.5 shooting splits. Those are among the best marks of his career. He is adding 4.6 assists per game too for good measure.
The Pelicans have lost two key starters and Zion Williamson is in and out of the lineup. That has put far more pressure on Ingram to carry the load. And New Orleans' depth is getting stretched. At the least then, it allows Ingram to showcase himself and make the case for his next contract, whoever it may end up with.