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Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Utah | |
|---|---|---|
101.5 | Pace | 103.0 |
115.6 | Off. Rtg. | 114.3 |
112.5 | Def. Rtg. | 121.2 |
53.5 | eFG% | 53.6 |
32.4 | O.Reb.% | 31.4 |
14.1 | TO% | 15.4 |
32.6 | FTR | 31.1 |
1. Offensive stalling
The Orlando Magic are ranked 10th in the league in offensive rating at 115.6 points per 100 possessions. That is still a weird sentence to type as the Magic have found some offensive groove this season.
But the Magic's offense has been lagging behind lately. In the last 10 games, Orlando is 15th at 115.0 points per 100 possessions. And in the last five games, the Magic are 22nd at 110.5 points per 100 possessions.
Certainly, part of the issue is the Magic learning to play without Franz Wagner, who has missed the majority of the last four games now. Certainly, part of it is a load of injuries the Magic are dealing with -- coach Jamahl Mosley finally admitted that Tristan da Silva had been dealing with his shoulder issue for several weeks before missing Thursday's game in Denver.
The Magic are trying to get their offense back on track to support a defense that is missing several key players and has strung together bad games back-to-back.
The Utah Jazz have the second-worst defensive rating in the league this season. The team with the worst was the Washington Wizards, a win the Orlando Magic picked up in October that gave the team some much-needed relief when they were at rock bottom.
2. Caught in the pace
A significant reason for the Orlando Magic's offensive surge is their emphasis on increasing their pace. Orlando went from last in pace at 96.5 possessions per 48 minutes and 25th in fastbreak points at 13.8 per game to 11th at 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes and second with 18.7 fastbreak points per game.
The Magic's half-court offense is still a bit of a struggle. The Magic are at their best when they get stops and get out in transition.
But Orlando also can run into problems when they get sucked into a back-and-forth transition game. They struggle against teams that tend to push the pace too much.
It is still all about control.
The Orlando Magic are 6-3 against teams that rank in the top 10 in pace -- three of those wins are against the Miami Heat and two of those losses are against the Atlanta Hawks. The Magic are 7-3 in their fastest-paced games.
Orlando needs to play fast. The team needs to pick up its pace. But it needs to be the one controlling the tempo against a Utah Jazz team that likes to get up and down.
3. Still about shooting
Much of the Orlando Magic's offensive downturn is still coming down to the team's ability to hit shots. And the Magic's three-point shooting has been a struggle lately.
Orlando has shot better than 40 percent from three just once in the last 10 games and better than 35 percent in just four games in the last 10, and only twice in the last eight.
The Magic have always been able to work around their poor shooting. But it always feels like they will need a big three to secure a game and pull away for a win.
It has not helped that Tristan da Silva was in a shooting slump, Jalen Suggs is now out with a hip injury and Franz Wagner is out too. The Magic need to find some outside shooting to loosen up defenses in the paint.
Orlando needs to make shots.
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain)
- Jalen Suggs - DOUBTFUL (Left Hip Contusion)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Injury Recovery)
- Tristan da Silva - QUESTIONABLE (Right Shoulder Contusion)
- Jonathan Isaac - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hip Contusion)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Utah Jazz Injury Report
- Lauri Markkanen - DOUBTFUL (Right Groin Injury Management)
- Walker Kessler - OUT (Left Shoulder Injury Recovery)
- Georges Niang - OUT (Left Foot Fourth Metatarsal Stress Reaction)
- Oscar Tshiebwe - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Elijah Harkless - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- John Tonje - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Utah | |
|---|---|---|
Tyus Jones | PG | Keyonte George |
Desmond Bane | SG | Ace Bailey |
Anthony Black | SF | Svi Mykhailuk |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Kyle Filipowski |
Wendell Carter | C | Jusuf Nurkic |
Orlando Magic at Utah Jazz: Prediction
Our Record: 16-11/13-14 ATS
The Utah Jazz can score. That is the big concern in this one.
They have given Keyonte George a massive green light, and he has taken it and run with it. Especially with Lauri Markkanen in and out of the lineup right now. The Jazz are going to push the pace and try to get up as many shots as possible.
It is easy to get sucked into that kind of game. And undisciplined teams can get into a back-and-forth game with the Jazz. And that is where the Jazz can get them.
Orlando fell victim to that last year as Brice Sensabaugh pummeled the team in Orlando in a rare Florida sweep for Utah. All of those weapons are still present, although they lack veterans like Collin Sexton and John Collins and Lauri Markkanen is DOUBTFUL to play Saturday.
But the Jazz will give up as many points as they will score. Utah is playing big right now and that should give Paolo Banchero the ability to attack the interior and suck them in. The Magic are going to need to make some shots to loosen that defense up and they will need contributions off the bench.
More than that, Orlando needs to lean into its defensive identity. It may not take many stops and moments of running in transition to secure this one.