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- Season Series: Magic 106, Raptors 97 in Toronto on Jan. 3; Raptors 109, Magic 93 in Toronto on Jan. 21; Tonight in Orlando; March 4 in Orlando
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Toronto | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
99.9 | Pace | 96.7 |
109.6 | Off. Rtg. | 107.3 |
115.5 | Def. Rtg. | 109.0 |
52.9 | eFG% | 50.2 |
30.5 | O.Reb.% | 30.7 |
15.5 | TO% | 15.1 |
23.5 | FTR | 26.9 |
3. Shooting matters
The Orlando Magic do not need anyone to tell them that shooting matters. They watched Stephen Curry drop 12 3-pointers on them in Thursday's loss to the Golden State Warriors and completely flip that game on its head. The Magic simply cannot do that.
But they stayed in the game and built a 17-point lead because of how free and loose their offense played. They built the lead because of an offense that moved the ball and, most importantly, made shots.
The Magic shot 39.3 percent from three, dipping under 40 percent because of a last attempt missed by Franz Wagner. It is a rare thing for the Magic to lose in a game like that. When they shoot well, they win.
Orlando is 17-6 when the team shoots at least 33.3 percent from three—let alone 5-1 when the team shoots 40 percent or better. It is an indictment that even a middling 3-point percentage is so rare for this team—less than half of their games.
The Orlando Magic had two solid shooting performances in their games against the Toronto Raptors. They made a season-high 19 3-point attempts and shot 43.2 percent in the win on Jan. 1. The Magic also made 5 of 10 3-pointers in the first quarter in the second meeting to build a 20-point lead.
Of course, they made only 4 of 21 the rest of the game to eventually lose by double digits.
It should be obvious. Shooting matters. And the Magic's ability to take care of business against teams like the Raptors depends on shooting.
2. Road woes
One of the key differences between good teams and bad teams is the vast difference in performance between home and road. The Orlando Magic have not been nearly as good on the road as at home, but they are at least competitive at 18-13 in Kia Center and 11-19 on the road.
A team like the Toronto Raptors really feels that difference.
They are 13-19 at Scotiabank Arena but 5-23 away from Toronto. That includes losing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in Chicago on Friday before falling to the Chicago Bulls in overtime by 10 points.
The Raptors have a -7.7 net rating on the road including a woeful 116.2 defensive rating and a 108.5 offensive rating. Toronto has lost four of their last five on the road.
They are just not very effective on the road.
1. The turnover story
One thing remains true about the Toronto Raptors, however. They are excellent at creating and converting off turnovers. And that is going to be the central story of this game.
The Raptors are 16th in the league forcing a 14.5 percent turnover rate. But they are fifth in the league with 17.2 fast-break points per game and 14th with 17.8 points off turnovers per game.
The Orlando Magic are a turnover-prone team. Six third-quarter turnovers are what supercharged Stephen Curry and his outburst.
The Magic are 20th in the league with a 15.1 percent turnover rate and have been better at protecting the ball this year. They are also among the top teams in the league in forcing turnovers—second with a 16.9 percent turnover rate forced.
And the ability to turn over and get easy shots has been a real focus for them since the All-Star Break. Orlando is averaging 21.4 fast-break points per game, up nearly seven points per game above the team's season average.
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Toronto Raptors Injury Report
- Brandon Ingram - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Ochai Agbaji - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Garrett Temple - OUT (Personal Reasons)
- Ulrich Chomche - OUT (Right Knee Partial Proximal MCL Tear)
- Jamison Battle - OUT (Nasal Fracture)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Jalen Suggs - OUT (Left Knee Trochlea Cartilage Injury)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Torn ACL)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Ethan Thompson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Lineup
Toronto | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Immanuel Quickley | PG | Cole Anthony |
Gradey Dick | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
RJ Barrett | SF | Franz Wagner |
Scottie Barnes | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Jakob Poeltl | C | Wendell Carter |
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 35-26/28-33 ATS
Thursday's game was a character check for the Orlando Magic after the blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. They needed to see how they would respond. And they did brilliantly. It took a historic performance from an all-time great player to beat them. And they still had their chance to win.
The question then is whether the Magic can push aside the results that did not go away and bring the same focus and intensity that built a 17-point lead in the first half—knowing there is no Stephen Curry to change the game on his own on the other side.
That is another character check for this team. And it comes in the wake of the Magic learning Jalen Suggs' return is not imminent after his setback with the trochlea injury. Orlando lost a jolt of energy.
That makes this a very dangerous game. The Raptors will surely want to bounce back after Friday's disappointing defeat in Chicago. They have every motivation to play well. It is on the Magic to close that door and execute.
They have to understand their process is good enough to win—certainly a game like this. But they are not so good to sleepwalk through a game against anyone. Energy will be critical once again.