The Orlando Magic are very happy with their acquisition of Desmond Bane. Let's make that clear from the start.
The sharpshooting wing has not been the volume 3-point shooter the team hoped for, but he has done everything else above and beyond what the Magic likely could have hoped for this season.
The trade has been a win for the Magic. It was the exact move the team needed to make at that point in its development. It was an aggressive move and one that seemed to showcase the franchise's seriousness to compete at a higher level.
At various points this season, fans have gleefully asked if they can send another pick to the Memphis Grizzlies because of how well Bane has played.
They may be regretting that now. The deal could potentially turn into a disaster if the Magic miss the Playoffs.
With the team clinging to a Play-In spot with their late-season swoon, the possibility that Orlando fails to make the Playoffs has become very real. And while their pick is likely to be in the back end of the Lottery anyway, it is still a Lottery pick with a chance to become a top pick in this celebrated draft class.
The Desmond Bane trade appears to be one that both sides can feel like they came out winners. And the Magic's shocking struggles this season only adds to the ledger that the Grizzlies are adding.
The upside for Memphis in the trade has greatly increased thanks to Orlando's struggles.
Early returns
The trend around the NBA is for teams preparing to rebuild to seek out contending teams and extract as many draft picks as they can for even role players.
The Utah Jazz got five first-round picks in the Rudy Gobert trade. The Brooklyn Nets grabbed six first-round picks in the Mikal Bridges trade.
Four first-round picks and a pick swap for Desmond Bane seems like the going price for high-level role players these days.
It was undoubtedly a huge cost. But for a Magic team desperate for shooting and needing to make a big splash after struggling again on offense through an offensively and shooting-challenged season in 2025, it was a move that made loads of sense.
The Magic are certainly happy with their side of things. Bane has delivered everything the team could have hoped for.
Bane is averaging 20.3 points per game and shooting 39.0 percent from three on 5.2 attempts per game. Orlando certainly hoped his volume would be higher, with injuries to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner throughout the season, Desmond Bane has had to take a bigger on-ball role.
That has been delivered too. Bane has 12 games of 30 or more points, including two where he failed to hit a three-pointer -- both wins over the Detroit Pistons in the NBA Cup group play game and against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the team's seven-game win streak.
Bane will be my season-long MVP, and at each turn, he has been nothing but a solid veteran determined to make things work. It is hard to imagine where this Magic team would be without him.
The veteran players the Memphis Grizzlies acquired did not work out as well for them. They waived Cole Anthony fairly quickly. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's struggles have continued this season -- he is averaging 8.4 points per game and shooting 31.6 percent from three.
The prize for the Grizzlies was clearly the draft haul, with the team aiming to tear the roster down and rebuild -- Jaren Jackson Jr. was traded near the trade deadline.
They used their own pick and the Magic's pick to trade up and take Cedric Coward, who has had a solid rookie year averaging 13.3 points per game.
It would be a pleasant surprise for them to get a second Lottery pick.
The Lottery Odds
The Orlando Magic's pick -- and there is that weird Washington Wizards and Phoenix Suns pick swap stipulation involved -- is currently slated to land at No. 16 with the team sitting in the 8-seed.
That could change dramatically depending on how the rest of the season plays out.
The Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets, both a half-game behind the Orlando Magic, would hold the 13th and 14th picks in the Lottery. That gives them a 1.0 and 0.5 percent chance to win the top pick and a 4.8 and 2.4 percent chance to land in the top four.
The odds are still long.
Then again, the Dallas Mavericks last year jumped from the fourth-worst Lottery position with a 1.8 percent chance to win the Lottery. The Magic know all too well how Lottery luck works.
Most Magic fans do not want to see the team put in that position or the potential for a disaster, and the Grizzlies jumping up to grab a superstar player with their pick -- and seemingly every East Play-In team does not own their own pick and needs to make the Playoffs to give themselves the best advantage.
Memphis' own pick, for the record, sits at eighth with a 6.0 percent chance of winning the Lottery and 26.3 percent chance at the top four. If the Magic miss the Playoffs, there is a better than one in four chance the Grizzlies land one of the top four picks.
A lot of that is outside of the Magic's control. The only thing they have ever been able to control is their ability to win.
And that is what the team needs to do to avoid this troubling scenario and make the Playoffs.