Orlando Magic vs. Portland Trail Blazers (Jan. 23, 2025): 3 Things to Watch, Odds, and Prediction

The Orlando Magic return home to try to snap a four-game losing streak, facing the Portland Trail Blazers. The injured Magic may get a key return with Franz Wagner upgraded to QUESTIONABLE on the injury report.

Franz Wagner's status for Thursday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers has been upgraded to QUESTIONABLE suggesting he may make his return for the Orlando Magic.
Franz Wagner's status for Thursday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers has been upgraded to QUESTIONABLE suggesting he may make his return for the Orlando Magic. | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch

Portland

Orlando

99.4

Pace

96.7

108.8

Off. Rtg.

107.5

117.0

Def. Rtg.

108.0

51.7

eFG%

50.5

31.7

O.Reb.%

30.5

16.4

TO%

15.3

22.9

FTR

26.5

3. Paolo and Franz together

The big news of Wednesday as the Orlando Magic made their way home from Toronto after a disappointing loss to the Toronto Raptors was a critical update to the injury report. While there are still a lot of players QUESTIONABLE due to illness and lingering injuries, Franz Wagner has seen his status upgraded.

A week after he entered the return to competition reconditioning phase of his recovery, Wagner is officially listed as QUESTIONABLE for Thursday's game. The Magic may still play coy with his status after shootaround in the morning, but it is undoubtedly a sign that Wagner's return is imminent.

It is hard to imagine he is not back for either Thursday's game against the Portland Trail Blazers or Saturday's now-humongous game against the Detroit Pistons.

The Magic are slowly getting healthy. And Wagner's return will be welcomed.

Wagner was on an All-Star path before his injury, averaging a career-high 24.4 points per game with 5.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. In the 20 games he played after Paolo Banchero's injury, he averaged 26.1 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.

At the very least, the Magic will get back another downhill scorer and creator. They desperately need someone to relieve that pressure and give Banchero some space. Part of the Magic's frustration in the last four games has been how little room Banchero has to operate.

Banchero and Wagner together on the court is still a mystery since they have played so little together this year. In 109 minutes together this year, the Magic have a +8.3 net rating (114.2/105.9) with Banchero and Wagner on the floor together. Last year, the Magic had a +1.7 net rating (109.4/107.7) in 1,799 minutes together.

That hints at their improvement. But it is still just five games and barely two games worth of playing together.

There are a lot of factors behind that, but it will certainly help to have even Wagner's threat on the floor again.

2. Emerging guards

The Portland Trail Blazers are at the bottom of the Western Conference standings and seemingly preparing to shed veteran players at the trade deadline—Deandre Ayton (if they can find takers), Jerami Grant and (tantalizingly) Anfernee Simons. But this is a team with plenty of talent and size. They are still dangerous enough.

Portland has won two straight after a five-game losing streak. And a big part of their success comes from Anfernee Simons and Scoot Henderson.

Simons is averaging 18.2 points per game with 42.1/36.6/90.4 shooting splits. He is down from last year. But in his last 12 games, he is averaging 20.0 points per game with 44.6/45.0/89.5 shooting splits. He is making 4.2 3-point attempts per game.

There is a reason Magic fans have coveted Simons, beyond the potential homecoming for the Altamonte Springs native.

Henderson has also taken a big step in his second year after struggling in all areas in his rookie year.

He is averaging 12.5 points per game and 5.4 assists per game while shooting 35.2 percent from three. But in his last eight games, he is averaging 18.5 points per game and 6.4 assists per game, scoring in double figures in all but one game.

Henderson is not the runaway prospect everyone thought he could be. But there are signs of his contributions and improvement out there.

1. Defensive disruption

The Orlando Magic's identity is on defense. That has been what has faltered in the last four games (all losses), giving up a 116.0 defensive rating in all four games.

There are a lot of reasons the defense has slipped. The opponents in the first three games—the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets—were a big part of it. The Magic's penchant for fouling and misusing their physicality in all four games is a big one too.

But there is another sign of their poor defense—they are not forcing turnovers.

The Magic average an opponent turnover rate of 17.3 percent, the second-best mark in the league. They average 19.4 points off turnovers per game, eighth in the league.

During this four-game losing streak, the Magic forced opponents to a 16.7 percent turnover rate and scored 16.0 points off turnovers per game.

Those feel like small differences. But with how much the Magic are struggling to score and shoot right now, missing out on extra possessions and chances for easy baskets is critical. It is something the Magic desperately miss.

They have to force turnovers to create defensive energy and offensive energy.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups

Portland Trail Blazers Injury Report

  • Anfernee Simons - QUESTIONABLE (Low Back Soreness)
  • Deandre Ayton - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Soreness)
  • Toumani Camara - QUESTIONABLE (Illness)
  • Donovan Clingan - OUT (Left Ankle Sprain)
  • Matisse Thybulle - OUT (Right Ankle Sprain)
  • Kris Murray - QUESTIONABLE (Chest Contusion)
  • Taze Moore - OUT (G-League Two-Way)

Orlando Magic Injury Report

  • Franz Wagner - QUESTIONABLE (Return to Competition Reconditioning)
  • Jalen Suggs - OUT (Low Back Strain)
  • Goga Bitadze - DOUBTFUL (Concussion Protocol)
  • Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Torn ACL)
  • Jonathan Isaac - QUESTIONABLE (Illness)
  • Cole Anthony - QUESTIONABLE (Illness)
  • Gary Harris - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Strain)
  • Jett Howard - QUESTIONABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
  • Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)

Projected Lineups

Portland

Orlando

Scoot Henderson

PG

Anthony Black

Anfernee Simons

SG

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Deni Avdija

SF

Tristan da Silva

Jerami Grant

PF

Paolo Banchero

Deandre Ayton

C

Wendell Carter

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction

Our Record: 28-17/22-23 ATS

The Orlando Magic are at the bottom of the valley right now.

They entered this week with some opportunities for what looked like get-right games on paper. They came out and built a 21-point lead against the Toronto Raptors in the first quarter. Then they lost momentum, gave up a 40-point third quarter and succumbed to all of their injuries as they tried to fight back.

If that game is at the Kia Center, does that make a difference? Orlando has had lifeless games at home before. But it is hard to imagine the Magic faltering like that at home. They just have to find the energy.

The Orlando Magic's injury report is still long—as is the Portland Trail Blazers' injury report —so it is hard to tell who will play. The lift of Franz Wagner's potential return for this game could be the boost the team needs. Just being able to dress 10 guys might be a nice luxury.

The game still comes down to the team's defense. Orlando has to get stops. And while Portland has plenty of dangerous scorers, this is not a dramatically strong offensive team.

As Paolo Banchero's minute restriction gets lifted—he cleared 30 points for the first time Tuesday—he will hopefully begin to get comfortable playing his regular slate of minutes and more comfortable making plays as he completes his second week since returning from injury.

The Magic desperately need a win and should play with the urgency and poise at home to get one.

Schedule