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Season Series: Tonight in Oklahoma City; Dec. 19 in Orlando
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando | 100.8 | 107.2 | 108.5 | 50.7 | 27.4 | 14.5 | 30.2 |
Oklahoma City | 102.4 | 112.5 | 95.1 | 53.5 | 24.6 | 11.6 | 19.5 |
OMD Prediction
Our Record: 4-3/2-5 ATS
The Orlando Magic seem to be going out of the frying pan and into the fire repeatedly right now. The team is just playing opponents that are going to punish them for every mistake they make. The scores are ugly right now and the Magic have had no time to come up for breath as they try to figure things out since Paolo Banchero's injury. Their best players have to take on all this new responsibility with no chance to get settled.
Their game Monday against the Oklahoma City Thunder will be another difficult challenge for that reason. The Thunder are undefeated and feature a harassing defense. Something the offensively challenged Magic do not frankly need right now. The team needs some confidence and this is a game that will be difficult to find it.
The Magic through two games since Banchero's injury are still trying to get their legs under them. There have been some good and solid moments. But the team's bad moments have been devastatingly bad. The Magic just have not been able to punch back.
The Thunder will be a huge challenge. They are struggling on offense, so if the Magic can make this a half-court game, they should have a chance. But their defense is so devastating and difficult, that it will make things difficult for Orlando. And the biggest problem for Orlando right now is its inability to score at all.
It still feels like a very tough road ahead.
3 Things to Watch
3. It's shooting
The Orlando Magic's biggest problem right now is the simplest one. The Magic cannot shoot the ball with any accuracy. And it will be difficult for this team undermanned to win much without solid shooting performances.
Just look at how far the team's offensive rating has dipped in the table above.
The Magic have shot 19 for 74 (25.7 percent) from three in the last two games and 39.3 percent overall. Those are simply numbers the Magic cannot succeed with without their best player. They need to put up a fight from deep.
The Magic are getting 24.5 wide-open threes per game, according to NBA.com, and making 34.5 percent of those shots for the entire season. That is the third-most wide-open threes per game in the league. But in the last two games, Orlando is just 10 for 43 (23.3 percent) on wide-open threes. That is not too much of a decrease in the average.
The Magic are struggling to make whatever open shots they get. And their inconsistency at scoring at the rim too is a huge problem. Orlando is averaging 29.7 field goal attempts per game within five feet this year at 60.1 percent shooting. But in the last two games, the team is at 56.1 percent on 33.0 attempts per game within five feet.
The Magic have to make their open threes and make their shots around the rim to begin to right this ship.
2. Bench struggles
The Orlando Magic's formula to win has to change. But it does not have to change that much.
The Magic should still be a team that looks to put pressure on the rim and score in the paint. They cannot abandon getting downhill and getting to the basket even if the way the team does this is different. Orlando needs a strategic change on that front.
But the other part of the formula for Orlando is their dominant bench. The team was fourth in the league in bench scoring and the Magic leaned on the dynamic attack of the bench, often with Franz Wagner, and Jonathan Isaac's crazy rim protection, to extend leads or keep the team in them.
That has not been the case this year. Orlando is scoring 35.6 points off the bench per game, 14th in the league. More than that, because Franz Wagner has been slowed down and now has to play essentially Paolo Banchero's minutes, he is playing with that bench unit a lot less.
The bench group is averaging only 39.0 points per game off the bench in the last two games. That is at least encouraging. Although fourth quarters that are essentially played without the starters may inflate those numbers.
In fairness, coach Jamahl Mosley right now is trying to settle his rotation and find the right playing groups. There is a ton of experimenting going on. And the Magic just have not settled on something that works consistently.
That throws the bench into chaos. But even before the injury, the bench was not the dominant force it was last year. And that is a big element missing for this team.
1. Wagner and Suggs take the mantle
There are a lot of really simple things the Orlando Magic need to happen to win. Making shots is one of those things. They also need Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs to take the mantle and lead this team.
There have been some signs they can do this—Suggs scored a career-high 28 points in the loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Wagner recorded six assists in each of the two games. There have been a lot of signs they are struggling on this front too—Wagner is shooting 14 for 34 (41.2 percent) in the last two games.
The Magic's margin for error is just so small right now. They cannot afford to have both Wagner and Suggs struggling. They both have to take the mantle. One of them has to be scoring near 25 points per game and the other has to be near 20 to give this team a chance and some consistent scoring pressure.
The team is still seeking some consistency on offense. It is still a big challenge for the Magic overall and it starts at the top.