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- Season Series:Â Thunder 128, Magic 92 in Oklahoma City on Feb. 3; Tonight in Orlando
Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Oklahoma City | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
100.4 | Pace | 100.2 |
116.9 | Off. Rtg. | 114.2 |
106.3 | Def. Rtg. | 113.0 |
55.7 | eFG% | 53.1 |
26.0 | O.Reb.% | 30.2 |
12.3 | TO% | 13.5 |
26.5 | FTR | 30.5 |
1. The possession battle
Everything for the Orlando Magic is always about the details. It is always about whether the team is doing the little things that help them control the game and control possessions.
Orlando wants to play fast, but not too fast. The team wants to get its defense set, but has to do so with the unreliability of the team's shooting. It wants to force turnovers without making turnovers.
Everything for the Magic has been a really tough balance that they have done well at.
The Orlando Magic pointed to a few stats as key indicators of the team's loss to the Atlanta Hawks. It was 11 turnovers for 17 points for the Hawks -- a still just a 10.5 percent turnover rate. It was 15 offensive rebounds for 19 second-chance points -- a woeful 35.2 percent offensive rebound rate. Those are things that put the Magic behind the 8-ball, and they were unable to keep up.
Orlando has been good at both of those things for most of the season.
The Magic are sixth in the league with a 13.5 percent turnover rate and fifth, giving up 16.3 points off turnovers per game. They are sixth with a 29.1 percent opponent offensive rebound rate and second with 13.3 second-chance points allowed per game.
Orlando has had a lot of games like the one the team had Monday. But those are the outliers more than the norm for this team.
Still, those are the categories and stats that are important as the Magic try to control possessions.
2. The impenetrable Thunder
Asking the Orlando Magic to figure things out after a puzzling effort in a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder is quite the challenge. Expect the Magic to play better after they struggled through Monday's game and lost their win streak. But the Magic could play well and still lose to the Thunder.
Orlando is still trying to figure out how to get Oklahoma City's level of consistency and poise.
The Thunder are just good at everything -- seventh in offensive rating, first in defensive rating (by nearly three points per 100 possessions), first in turnover rate, sixth in effective field goal percentage and fifth in true shooting percentage.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander broke Wilt Chamberlain's record for most consecutive 20-point games and is on his way to a second straight MVP award. He is the model of consistency.
It is hard to find a weakness to attack with this Thunder team. It is why they are the favorites to repeat as champions.
The one area the Magic might be able to attack is on the glass. Oklahoma City is 15th with a 69.5 percent defensive rebound rate and seventh giving up 14.3 second-chance points per game.
It is a small weakness to exploit. But the Magic need to play well to give themselves a chance. And they can find some room attacking the glass.
3. Desmond Bane vs. the Thunder
Desmond Bane has seen the Oklahoma City Thunder more than any player on the Orlando Magic. He played a playoff series against them last year. And Bane has struggled against the Thunder's swarming defense.
In last year's playoff series, he averaged 15.3 points per game and shot 21.9 percent from three on 8.0 3-point attempts per game. It was a really rough playoff series for Bane.
But it continued struggles he had in the regular season. He averaged only 15.0 points per game on 29.6 percent shooting from three in four games against the Thunder last year.
He had seven points on 3-for-7 shooting against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Orlando Magic's matchup with them earlier this season. It was one of eight games in single digits for Bane this season.
The Magic, of course, turned their season around since that loss to the Thunder. Bane has averaged 24.4 points per game and shot 44.8 percent on 5.8 3-point attempts per game in the 18 games since that loss to the Thunder.
More importantly, Orlando is 13-5 in those games.
Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Oklahoma City Injury Report
- Jalen Williams - OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
- Nikola Topic - OUT (G-League On Assignment)
- Thomas Sorber - OUT (Right ACL Surgical Recovery)
- Branden Carlson - OUT (Low Back Strain)
- Brooks Barnhizer - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Left High Ankle Sprain Injury Management)
- Anthony Black - OUT (Left Lateral Abdominal Strain)
- Jonathan Isaac - OUT (Left Knee Strain)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Alex Morales - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Oklahoma City | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Ajay Mitchell | SG | Desmond Bane |
Luguentz Dort | SF | Tristan da Silva |
Chet Holmgren | PF | Paolo Banchero |
Isaiah Hartenstein | C | Wendell Carter |
Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Prediction
Our Record: 41-26/30-37 ATS
The Orlando Magic have a long history this season of bouncing back from seemingly crushing defeats and frustrating efforts.
That is how the team stayed alive even with the inconsistencies throughout the season. They never let losing streaks grow out of control. They always seemed to have an answer.
They have also been really good on the second night of back-to-backs, going 8-2 in their 10 previous back-to-backs (they are oddly now 3-8 on the first night of back-to-backs).
After Monday's frustrating effort against the Atlanta Hawks, it all points to an inspired effort back home at the Kia Center, even on the fifth game in eight days.
But this is the Oklahoma City Thunder. While the Thunder are not the juggernaut they were early in the season and have exposed some flaws that have kept them from running away. Or perhaps they are just biding their time.
It will take a very focused and intense effort for the Magic to compete with them. The Thunder are so good at exposing every wekaness and taking advantage of any lapses a team might have. And so the Magic will need to be sharp in a way they were not Monday night.
Orlando should play better because of what happened Monday night. But playing well is not enough against the Thunder.