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- Season Series: Knicks 121, Magic 106 in New York City on Dec. 3; Knicks 100, Magic 91 in Orlando on Dec. 15; Tonight in Orlando; Jan. 6 in New York City
New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
New York | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
97.6 | Pace | 97.7 |
120.2 | Off. Rtg. | 109.4 |
112.7 | Def. Rtg. | 105.8 |
57.9 | eFG% | 51.8 |
28.6 | O.Reb.% | 30.2 |
13.5 | TO% | 15.9 |
22.9 | FTR | 27.8 |
3. It's Turnovers
The Orlando Magic could point to a lot of reasons for their collapse against the Miami Heat. The highlights would say it was the Tyler Herro shot with 0.5 seconds left that cost them the game. And that was undoubtedly a consequential play.
But after the game, everyone in the Magic locker room or press conference room pointed to the turnovers. Orlando committed 23 turnovers for 25 Miami points. Even though the Magic forced 21 and scored 28 points off those turnovers themselves, the Magic felt they gave away possessions and that was costly in such a close game. Especially when Orlando was unable to stop the bleeding with their shooting.
Turnovers remain a huge issue for the team. Orlando is 23rd in the league with a 15.9 percent turnover rate. The team had a 23.7 percent turnover rate in Thursday's game, led by Jalen Suggs' seven turnovers.
That will not get the job done plain and simple. And against a more high-powered offensive team in the New York Knicks, the Orlando Magic cannot afford to give them extra possessions.
2. Fouling and Free Throws
The Orlando Magic's offense always has to play on the margins. They do not have the 3-point shooting to make up ground. And so not only do the Magic try to slow the game down to keep scores low and lean on their defense, they win off of turnovers and they win off offensive rebounds.
The other place they win is at the foul line. The Magic are fourth in the league wth a 27.8 percent free throw rate. That was one of the biggest effects of Paolo Banchero's arrival on the team. He instantly made them free throw merchants.
Since Franz Wagner's injury and the pressure he can put on defenses in the paint, the Magic's free throw rate has stayed steady at 27.2 percent. Orlando has to keep getting to the foul line.
On the flip side, the Magic have to continue defending without fouling. Orlando is 27th in the league giving up a 28.1 percent free throw rate. This is an area the Magic can improve defensively.
Even though the New York Knicks are not great at getting to the foul line, 26th with a 22.9 percent free throw rate, the Knicks average a 32.1 percent free throw rate against the Magic. This is a game that will get determined at the foul line.
1. Bench Frustrations
When Moe Wagner went out with a torn ACL, the Orlando Magic knew they were losing one of their biggest weapons. The Magic were a dominant team with scoring off the bench. And Wagner's calm and scoring ability was a big part of feeding one of the highest-scoring benches in the league.
Orlando struggled with its bench against the Miami Heat on Thursday scoring 12 total points. Bench players for the Magic shot 4 for 21 (19.0 percent) in the loss.
That is not going to win games for the Magic. They need to get something from their bench lineups, especially with their starting group stretched so thin and missing so much.
New York has the lowest scoring bench in the league with just 20.9 points per game. But the Knicks sprinkle their starters throughout the lineup. They will put pressure on every lineup they play. Orlando uses full bench lineups and that is where they get stung, especially in these games with New York.
New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
New York Knicks Injury Report
- Mitchell Robinson - OUT (Left Ankle Surgery)
- Kevin McCullar Jr. - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report (from Thursday)
- Paolo Banchero - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left Knee ACL)
- Gary Harris - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
New York | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Jalen Brunson | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Mikal Bridges | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
OG Anunoby | SF | Trevelin Queen |
Josh Hart | PF | Tristan da Silva |
Karl-Anthony Towns | C | Goga Bitadze |
New York Knicks vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 20-12/12-20 ATS
The Orlando Magic will play hard. Everyone knows and understands that about this team. They will still defend at a high level. And that gives this team a chance.
But at 3-4 since Franz Wagner's injury, even without many blowout losses, it is clear there is a steep wall the team is trying to climb. Nobody will use that as an excuse—they can score big wins and compete—but the Magic have to play well and nearly perfectly to get there.
The margin for error is small. And even a small slip on defense is enough to bury the team—just look at the fourth quarter against the Miami Heat on Thursday.
The New York Knicks have been a tough matchup for the Orlando Magic this year. They can drag Goga Bitadze out of the paint and put some of the Magic's other defenders on an island. They feast on turnovers and put pressure on the defense not to foul. It has not worked out well for Orlando.
The Knicks can still float too though. Their defense is inconsistent and they will lose their connection. The Magic should still be competitive in the game because that is their make up. But Orlando is finding it hard to do much against good teams that are fully locked in without the team's stars. That was expected.
And that will make a game like this tough on them.