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Season Series: Tonight in Miami; Dec. 21 in Orlando; Dec. 26 in Orlando; Jan. 27 in Miami
2024 Season Series: Heat 115, Magic 106 in Orlando on Dec. 20; Heat 99, Magic 96 in Miami on Jan. 12; Magic 105, Heat 87 in Orlando on Jan. 21; Heat 121, Magic 95 in Miami on Feb. 6
2024 Season | Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando | 97.4 | 112.9 | 110.8 | 54.1 | 29.7 | 15.0 | 28.7 |
Miami | 96.9 | 113.3 | 111.5 | 53.8 | 26.1 | 13.0 | 25.7 |
OMD Prediction
Our 2024 Record: 57-32/43-46 ATS
The first game of the season is always full of the unknown. The preseason is only valuable for so much. Players know how to pace themselves and prepare for the regular season. The question is whether they can turn on the switch. Or, more appropriately, can they find their footing especially when all the energy is going against them on the road.
In fact, the Orlando Magic have not won an opening game on the road since 2004 when Tracy McGrady led the Magic to an overtime win over the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. That is a five-game opening night road losing streak.
That should also tell you how little the opening game can mean. The Magic won that game and then lost their next 19 games. Conversely, Orlando started 0-2 in 2009.
The point is do not put a lot of stock into one game.
History does not predict future results though. Those teams are not this team. And the Magic hae a lot more they are confident about than the Heat do.
Still, this is the Heat. They are healthy and have some stellar players in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Both have a lot to prove this season and plenty of motivation. It should make for an intense opening game on Wednesday.
3 Things to watch
3. All about turnovers
The biggest question facing the Orlando Magic this year is, of course, centered on their offense. They were 22nd in the league in offensive rating, the worst offense from any team that made the postseason. And everyone is trying to figure out how the Magic improve.
Better shooting will, of course, go a long way. But the obsession for the team throughout training camp was to reduce turnovers. That is the general obsession for every coach in the preseason.
For the Magic, it is an especially acute problem. The team had a 15.0 percent turnover rate last year, ranking 26th in the league. The Magic lost a lot of bites at the apple by ending a lot of possessions without a shot. That is the baseline of what they need—more shots.
A big key to early season games is how is sharper offensively. It is about who will run their stuff and look closer to their final form. There is obviously a long way to go until everyone reaches that. But the Magic have to show progress with their turnovers. And that is the biggest question mark considering they left their point guard issues unaddressed with anyone external.
2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's debut
Opening night is always a chance to begin getting familiar with the new players. For the Orlando Magic, with only two new players on the roster essentially, they did not get the chance to see their new players play very much before the games count. At least, the public did not.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope played only 32.6 minutes in two games preseason games. Even when the Magic tried stretching out their starters' minutes in the final preseason game against the Philadelphia 76ers, they could not get him back in after an extended period without a stoppage.
It is safe to say the Magic did not see Caldwell-Pope fully unleashed. He scored five total points and made just 1 of 6 3-pointers. He will obviously be a lot better than that. And the threat of his shooting already creates space.
The regular season should see Caldwell-Pope unleashed more and fitted more to his role. This opening game could be the first time the Magic really see him.
1. Paolo and Franz's leap?
The Orlando Magic have made it clear their goal is to earn homecourt advantage and reach the second round of the playoffs. There are a ton of factors that will determine whether that happens. But no factor is bigger than their stars taking their appropriate leaps.
Paolo Banchero has to become more efficient and a better decision-maker. He showed signs of being able to do that throughout the preseason. He seems poised for a huge third season that could vault him toward All-NBA consideration.
Often discussions of what the Magic can do stops at the question of what Banchero's ultimate ceiling is. This is the year he begins mapping it out.
Franz Wagner has to take another leap too. He has to continue finding ways to diversify his game. Regaining his 3-point shot would go a long way to elevating his scoring and efficiency. It will all make the team better.
One game will not determine their futures, of course. But a lot is resting on their shoulders to carry this team. And they will have to set a tone against a tough Heat opponent off the bat.