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- Season Series: Magic 116, Heat 97 in Miami on Oct. 23; Magic 121, Heat 114 in Orlando on Dec. 21; Tonight in Orlando; Jan. 27 in Miami
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
97.7 | Pace | 97.7 |
113.4 | Off. Rtg. | 110.0 |
110.9 | Def. Rtg. | 106.2 |
53.8 | eFG% | 52.0 |
27.7 | O.Reb.% | 30.2 |
13.5 | TO% | 15.6 |
27.0 | FTR | 27.9 |
3. Fourth Quarter Magic
The Orlando Magic stunned the Miami Heat by coming back from 25 points last Saturday at the Kia Center. It was the kind of game that had the Heat thinking about their future and whether this team does not have it.
The more stunning stat from that game was that Orlando trailed by 22 points entering the fourth quarter. Then the Magic outscored the Heat 37-8 in the final quarter to win.
The Magic should not expect to outscore a team by that much in the final quarter so often, but that has become a trend. Ask the Boston Celtics, who lost their fourth quarter to the Orlando Magic 29-25 in a four-point defeat.
Orlando is statistically the best fourth quarter team in the league.
The Magic have a +19.3 net rating in the fourth quarter including an absurd 96.0 defensive rating, the only team with a defensive rating better than a point allowed per possession in the fourth quarter. The Orlando Magic are tied with the Denver Nuggets for most wins when entering the fourth quarter trailin—the Magic are still 5-11 when trailing after the third quarter.
Still, the Magic have made it a habit to blow teams out in the fourth quarter. Their defense certainly gets tighter. They have a solid 9-4 record in clutch situations.
Orlando's goal is to get to the fourth quarter. This team feels confident it has a chance when it gets that deep into the game.
2. Tyler Herro and the three
The Orlando Magic are just coming off a game against the Boston Celtics, in which they focused primarily on the 3-point shot. The Celtics are a prolific 3-point shooting team, averaging more than 50 3-point attempts per game, but they got only 33 attempts against the Magic.
Limiting 3-point attempts, where the Magic lead the league, is key to this defense. That is something that will again be under the spotlight against the Miami Heat.
Tyler Herro may end up as an NBA All-Star this year. He is averaging 23.9 points per game and shooting 40.3 percent from three. He is shooting 9.9 3-point attempts per game. It is the culmination of a steady rise for him.
And part of his evolution this year is eliminating his mid-range jumpers—he took 3.1 mid-range jumpers per game last year, according to NBA.com, compared to just 1.0 per game this year.
Against the Magic, Herro has taken 14 3-point attempts in two games. He took nine of those in Saturday's game, making only three. The Magic must keep Herro off the 3-point line to continue pushing the Heat around.
1. Tristan da Silva's spike
Orlando Magic fans are buzzing about how Tristan da Silva finished the game against the Boston Celtics on Monday. The rookie forward hit a huge shot to give the Magic a four-point lead with 10 seconds left and ice the game away against the defending champions.
The Magic have needed someone different to step up it seems in every game since Franz Wagner's injury. Part of the problem early on is the Magic trying to find that person to turn to every game.
Quickly, da Silva has been someone the Magic can lean on.
Since Wagner's injury (six games), da Silva is averaging 12.5 points per game and shooting 45.2 percent from the floor and 35.7 percent from three. This is a rookie who has a better understanding of his role, more comfort on the floor and the urging of his teammates to be aggressive.
The Magic are seeing the veteran rookie they selected.
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Miami Heat Injury Report
- Jimmy Butler - DOUBTFUL (Return to Competition Conditioning)
- Terry Rozier - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Inflammation)
- Nikola Jovic - AVAILABLE (Left Ankle Sprain)
- Josh Richardson - OUT (Right Heel Inflammation)
- Pelle Larson - AVAILABLE (Right Ankle Sprain)
- Dru Smith - OUT (Left Achilles Tear)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Paolo Banchero - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left Knee ACL)
- Gary Harris - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Miami | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Tyler Herro | PG | Jalen Suggs |
Duncan Robinson | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Jaime Jaquez Jr. | SF | Trevelin Queen |
Haywood Highsmith | PF | Tristan da Silva |
Bam Adebayo | C | Goga Bitadze |
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 20-11/12-19 ATS
The Orlando Magic embarrassed the Miami Heat last Saturday. Losing a 25-point lead and a 22-point lead entering the fourth quarter against an undermanned team and scoring only eight points in the fourth quarter requires a lot of introspection.
The media covering the Heat have certainly done that work. They are thinking about whether they are in the right direction. Shams Charania of ESPN's report that star Jimmy Butler would prefer a trade ahead of the Feb. 6 trade deadline only adds fuel to the fire of internal discontent. The Heat seem to be breaking.
Of course, everything gets proven on the court. The question for the Heat was not about what happened Saturday but how they would respond. There is always another game.
The Miami Heat got a reprieve facing the Brooklyn Nets in their next outing. They won fairly easily 110-95, pulling away with a cathartic 27-17 fourth quarter.
The Nets are not a team that can punch back hard and test the Heat. The question still remains will Miami fold or struggle against stiff competition?
It might be good that Miami returns to the scene of their trauma so soon—just five days! But it might be bad too because this Magic team still feels confident. They are feeling like world beaters and they have shown their defense will give them a chance even with all the bodies they are without.
Teams that take Orlando likely or cannot match Orlando's physicality find itself picked apart in the end. The Magic are not likely to blow anyone out—their offense can still be a mess. But they are not going to back down.
So the question in this game is whether the Heat are ready to punch back. That we are asking that question says a lot about how far they have fallen.