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Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (April 11, 2025): 3 Things to Watch, Odds, and Prediction

With the 7-seed and division locked up, the Orlando Magic head to the final two games of the season with nothing else to play for except a winning record. That may not be enough to bring the stars out for the final two games.
ByPhilip Rossman-Reich|
The Orlando Magic begin their final road trip of the season in Indiana with many of their starters unlikely to play. That will push veteran Gary Harris to the front in his homecoming game.
The Orlando Magic begin their final road trip of the season in Indiana with many of their starters unlikely to play. That will push veteran Gary Harris to the front in his homecoming game. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch

Orlando

Indiana

96.4

Pace

100.7

108.8

Off. Rtg.

115.7

109.0

Def. Rtg.

113.5

50.8

eFG%

56.4

30.3

O.Reb.%

25.2

14.6

TO%

12.9

27.0

FTR

24.0

3. A question of motivation

The Orlando Magic wrapped up the 7-seed and the Southeast Division with their win over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Unless gaining a winning or .500 record is a primary motivation, the Magic have nothing more to play for this season.

With the Magic's playoff spot not secured until the Play-In Tournament begins, the Magic are not likely to risk any major players getting injured between then and now. It is not wholly surprising that the Magic have listed all of their starters as QUESTIONABLE for Friday's game. It is unclear if any will play. They almost certainly will not play their full complement of minutes.

The only one of those players with an injury that is actually concerning is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, listed as QUESTIONABLE with a left knee strain after he left Wednesday's game in the second quarter.

The Indiana Pacers, meanwhile, have a lot to play for. They are trailing the New York Knicks by one game for the 3-seed after clinching no worse than the 4-seed with their win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday.

Indiana should play most of its regular players for its final home game as the team prepares to host a Game 1 next weekend.

2. Indiana Gary Harris

Gary Harris has become one of the favored scapegoats for Orlando Magic fans throughout this season. He has struggled to find his shot, often going through his minutes with few shots and zero points. Harris has 22 games without scoring this season.

But Harris is getting ample playing time. Coach Jamahl Mosley trusts him on defense. And he and Anthony Black have teamed up to make a devastating defensive duo who turn games with backcourt turnovers.

With the Magic anticipated to sit out many of their starters, Harris should get ample playing time. And if there is one team Harris has consistently played well against it is his home state team in Indiana.

Harris scored five points in the November loss to the Pacers earlier this year. He took and missed five shots in the Oct. 28 win in Orlando. Last year, Harris averaged 11.0 points per game and made 6 of his 9 3-pointers in three games against the Pacers.

In his career, Harris averages 12.0 points per game and shoots 43.3 percent from three against the Pacers (in 22 games). He performs better against only three other teams in the league throughout his career. Some of his best games with the Magic came in Indianapolis.

It is finally Gary Harris' time.

1. Turnovers on both ends

The Orlando Magic may not be at full strength when they play this game Friday, but they still want to hold themselves to a high defensive standard. And a big part of the Magic's defensive success is their ability to force turnovers. Undermanned and facing a strong offensive team in the Indiana Pacers will take turning them over.

Orlando is second in the league forcing a 16.7 percent turnover rate. Since the All-Star Break, the Magic force a turnover rate of 15.9 percent, fourth in the league. Orlando has to find ways to create offense and turnovers are an easy way to get out in transition—the team is not always the best at this.

Indiana tends to play fast, but this team does not turn the ball over. The Pacers are third in the league with a 12.9 percent turnover rate. Since the break, the Pacers turn the ball over on only 12.4 percent of their possessions.

This is what powers their offense so much. They play fast, they hunt threes and they do not turn the ball over.

The Magic must find a way to force turnovers and make it a half-court game to have a chance.

Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers: Injury Report & Projected Lineups

Orlando Magic Injury Report

  • Paolo Banchero - QUESTIONABLE (Right Ankle Soreness)
  • Franz Wagner - QUESTIONABLE (Right Knee Soreness)
  • Jalen Suggs - OUT (Leff Knee Trochlea Cartilage Tear)
  • Wendell Carter - QUESTIONABLE (Right Hip Contusion)
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Strain)
  • Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Torn ACL)
  • Cory Joseph - QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee Soreness)
  • Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
  • Ethan Thompson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)

Indiana Pacers Injury Report (from Thursday)

  • Isaiah Jackson - OUT (Right Achilles Tendon Tear)
  • Ben Sheppard - OUT (Left Great Toe Sprain)
  • Quenton Jackson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
  • RayJ Dennis - AVAILABLE (G-League Two-Way)
  • Enrique Freeman - AVAILABLE (G-League Two-Way)

Projected Lineups

Orlando

Indiana

Cory Joseph

PG

Tyrese Haliburton

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SG

Andrew Nembhard

Franz Wagner

SF

Aaron Nesmith

Paolo Banchero

PF

Pascal Siakam

Wendell Carter

C

Myles Turner

Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers: Prediction

Our Record: 45-35/41-39 ATS

The Orlando Magic seem to be trending toward not playing their starters Friday. At the very least, it seems like those players will not play their normal minutes, which probably means at best this is a preseason rotation.

Orlando already has an offensive shortfall. The team will not score a lot. Take creators like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner out of the mix, and offense is going to be a lot harder to find.

Not that the Magic cannot find a way. They found a way to win in December without many of those players. That was just a long time ago.

In a game like this, the battle for motivation is key. The Orlando Magic do not have the shooting that the Cleveland Cavaliers have to stay competitive. Not unless they shoot really well.

Orlando should always be a thorn in a team's side. But the Magic are moving their focus to the Play-In Tournament now.

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