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Season Series: Tonight in Dallas; March 27 in Orlando
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando | 100.8 | 111.1 | 108.7 | 53.1 | 26.8 | 14.4 | 31.9 |
Dallas | 98.8 | 111.9 | 111.0 | 51.4 | 28.6 | 10.7 | 20.5 |
OMD Prediction
Our Record: 3-3/2-4 ATS
Undoubtedly, the Orlando Magic's first game without Paolo Banchero required some feeling out. The Magic were redefining roles and trying to figure out how all these pieces fit together again. And players were getting used to their new roles and how to function together.
The Magic got better as the game progressed. That was the important thing to see. The Magic showed they will be competitive in the long run. But the pieces are still coming together.
Whether they can turn that competitiveness into stacking up wins will be another question entirely. And with the injuries the Magic are facing—Wendell Carter (right knee tendonitis) and Goga Bitadze (left foot tendon strain)—the margin for error is still very small.
And Orlando is facing teams right now that will punish any team that makes mistakes.
The Dallas Mavericks are still finding their footing after their trip to the Western Conference Finals last year. Luka Doncic (27.2 point, 8.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game) and Kyrie Irving (24.6 points and 5.6 assists per game) will do what they do. The Mavericks are still building the rest of their team and finding their footing even with some impressive wins.
Doncic and Irving are always a handful on their own. And for a short-handed Magic team, dealing with that star power will be difficult even if Doncic is struggling from deep to start the season and the team has not found a way to score beyond its stars.
3 Things to Watch
3. Defense drives offense
The Orlando Magic are a defensive team. And they know that even without Paolo Banchero in the lineup, everything they do has to start with their defense.
From a macro perspective, the Magic's 108.7 defensive rating for the season is seventh in the league. Even with offenses running away with things early in the season, the Magic's defense has held steady.
But watching the game has not felt like the Magic are quite in tune defensively yet.
They gave up the big quarter to the Memphis Grizzlies that put them behind last week. They gave up back-to-back 34-point quarters in the loss to the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. Their defense got loose in the win over the Indiana Pacers in the third quarter. And then they had the 34-point letdown in the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In all of those instances, the defense came together and produced some big moments to make those games competitive or allow the Magic to survive. Orlando went on a 21-0 run to cut into a large deficit against Memphis. The Magic gave up just 16 points in the fourth quarter in Chicago. They gave up 17 points in the fourth quarter to defeat the Pacers.
Orlando has had some stellar defensive moments. But the puzzle has not come together for a full 48-minute effort. That is what this team is waiting for. And with Banchero out, the Magic need their defense to lead the way. It largey has not done that yet.
2. Jonathan Isaac's home sweet home
Oddly enough, Jonathan Isaac has had some of his best games in Dallas against the Dallas Mavericks. The American Airlines Center is home to some of his all-time best games.
In the 2020 season, Isaac turned in a near 5x5 game with 13 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, four steals and six blocks. It was the best game of a stellar start to his season before all of his injuries.
He then came back to Dallas last year to post two points on 1-for-2 shooting in less than eight minutes. But it was his first start since he returned from his injury. And then the Magic made a plan only to play him for about eight minutes. And everyone left confused why the Magic played him only for that opening stint.
It was odd. But Isaac has had some of his best moments in Dallas. And his size has given the Mavericks a lot of problems when he has played.
Isaac has had a slow start to the season though. He is averaging 5.3 points per game and 2.3 stocks per game but shooting just 33.3 percent from three (primarily on threes). Isaac has not had the breakthrough from his first healthy offseason that everyone hoped. And even his defensive impact has been muted.
Without Paolo Banchero, the hope has to be for Jonathan Isaac to step up into this new role and make a clearer impact.
1. Newcomers from deep
Throughout the offseason, the Orlando Magic were connected to one name in free agency more than any other. Everyone seemed convinced that if Klay Thompson left the Golden State Warriors, it would be to come to the Orlando Magic.
The reason was a simple one: The Magic's desperate need for shooting.
Orlando ended up not chasing Thompson. The team signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope instead. And Thompson joined a readymade contender in the Dallas Mavericks.
So far, Dallas has to be happy with what it has gotten in Thompson.
Thompson is averaging 15.6 points per game and shooting 38.8 percent on 9.8 3-point attempts per game this season. Thompson may not have the same defensive energy he once had, but the shot has not gone anywhere. And it has added a dynamic to Dallas' more iso-heavy attack.
Meanwhile, Caldwell-Pope has added plenty defensively to the Magic. But his shot has not come around quite yet.
Caldwell-Pope has made only 5 of 26 3-pointers (19.2 percent). It is one of the most disappointing aspects to the Magic's early season, even if Caldwell-Pope has still been enough of a threat to create space for the Magic.
Considering Caldwell-Pope has not shot worse than 35 percent from three since 2019, Orlando has to believe that his shot will turn around. But so far, this has been a carer-worst start from deep for the veteran sharpshooter.