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- Season Series:Â Magic 115, Mavericks 114 in Orlando on March 5; Tonight in Dallas
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Orlando | Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
100.2 | Pace | 102.5 |
113.9 | Off. Rtg. | 109.6 |
114.1 | Def. Rtg. | 115.0 |
52.9 | eFG% | 52.7 |
30.3 | O.Reb.% | 27.8 |
13.9 | TO% | 14.3 |
30.7 | FTR | 28.7 |
1. The next punch
The Orlando Magic have been .500 since Franz Wagner's original injury on Dec. 7. They have followed the third law of physics -- every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
There was that stretch when the Magic exchanged wins and losses, and then there was the six-game losing streak that followed the seven-game win streak.
Right now, that pattern has left the Magic worn and tired. They have been unable to find consistency. They have struggled to take the first punch.
In their last two losses, they seemed to start the game with plenty of motivation. They took early leads against both the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks. Then they gave up a 31-0 run in Toronto and a 16-0 run to Atlanta. Orlando never got the rope back and only buried itself deeper coming out of the locker room.
As bad as first quarters have been in the last nine games -- a -8.1 net rating (113.4 offensive rating/121.5 defensive rating) -- the second quarter has been worse. The Magic have a -9.2 net rating in the second quarter (118.9 offensive rating and 128.1 defensive rating).
Third quarters? That is a league-worst -31.5 points per 100 possessions (107.3 offensive rating and 138.8 defensive rating) in the last nine games.
Orlando is struggling to respond when they get punched. That is the surest sign the team has lost connection and is not bought in.
The Orlando Magic cannot let a team like the Dallas Mavericks take the fight to them.
2. Rookie of the Year?
The Orlando Magic did not get a great look at Cooper Flagg as he played his first game since returning from a left midfoot sprain in Orlando.
Still, Flagg showed off why he is such a special rookie and the potential Rookie of the Year. He scored 18 points on 7-for-22 shooting. He had a crazy finish to the game to get Dallas in the lead and a chance to win the game -- including a tough go-ahead bucket in the dying seconds that was only answered by Wendell Carter's game-winning dunk.
Since returning from his injury, Flagg is averaging 19.9 points per game, 6.7 rebounds per game and 5.9 assists per game. The Mavs are still losing his minutes, but that is life as a rookei. Dallas is not losing because of him.
Flagg has been a bright spot for their future.
3. The free throw battle
The Orlando Magic's one thing offensively they have always done well is get to the foul line. Getting to the foul line is usually the biggest sign that Orlando is engaged offensively, especially Paolo Banchero. His ability to get to the line has been the most consistent offensive ability in his career.
The Magic need to get to the foul line to be successful. It is a sign of aggression as much as anything. And when the get free throws, they are in a good spot to win.
Through it all, Orlando is still second in the league in free throw rate at 30.2 percent. In wins, the team is at 32.8 percent. In losses, the team is at 28.4 percent.
In the last eight games, the Magic have a 32.3 percent free throw rate. Getting to the foul line has never really been the problem.
The problem is preventing teams from getting there.
For the season, the Magic are 25th, giving up a 28.6 percent free-throw rate. In the last nine games, Orlando is 28th at 30.2 percent. The Magic have always given up just as much as they get from the foul line.
The Dallas Mavericks can get to the line a decent amount. But in their last nine games, they are getting to the line with a 29.6 percent free-throw rate, even at 2-7. They give up only a 25.4 percent free-throw rate.
A big key to this game will be the Magic getting to the line and keeping the Mavs off the foul line.
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Anthony Black - OUT (Left Lateral Abdominal Strain)
- Jonathan Isaac - OUT (Left Knee Sprain)
- Colin Castleton - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Alex Morales - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
- Kyrie Irving - OUT (Left Knee Surgery)
- P.J. Washington - DOUBTFUL (Illness)
- Dereck Lively III - OUT (Right Foot Surgery)
- Caleb Martin - DOUBTFUL (Right Plantar Fascia Strain)
- Marvin Bagley III - DOUBTFUL (Left Shoulder Impingement)
- Tyler Smith - PROBABLE (G-League Two-Way)
- John Poulakidas - PROBABLE (G-League Two-Way)
- Moussa Cisse - QUESTIONABLE (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Orlando | Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
Jalen Suggs | PG | Ryan Nembhard |
Desmond Bane | SG | Max Christie |
Franz Wagner | SF | Cooper Flagg |
Paolo Banchero | PF | Khris Middleton |
Wendell Carter | C | Daniel Gafford |
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks: Prediction
Our Record: 47-29/32-44 ATS
The Orlando Magic have not won in Dallas since 2011. That says a lot.
When the media came into the locker room after the win in March at the Kia Center, Paolo Banchero was telling Desmond Bane how the Dallas Mavericks seemed to have the Orlando Magic's number. I recalled that the last time the Magic had beaten the Mavericks before that win last month was the infamous hurricane game -- a game that was moved up to 5:30 p.m. so Dallas could bus to Tampa to fly out ahead of the storm.
That is all to say, the Magic cannot count on a win against the Mavericks at any point. Dallas seems to have some spell in this series.
The Mavericks are struggling as much as the Magic are right now. They have lost 26 of their last 31 games, 16 of their last 19 games and seven of their last eight.
The Magic are not better in the last eight games, to be fair. But Dallas was in the middle of an eight-game losing streak when it lost to Orlando (that was lost No. 5) and has lost 11 of 14 since that defeat at the Kia Center.
That is all to say, if the Magic do what they have always done this season and bounce back from soul-crushing defeats with encouraging efforts, they should be set up to win on the road.