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Season Series: Magic 116, Nets 101 in Orlando on Oct. 25; Tonight in Brooklyn; Dec. 1 in Brooklyn; Dec. 29 in Orlando
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando | 97.7 | 110.4 | 105.1 | 51.7 | 29.2 | 14.8 | 27.7 |
Brooklyn | 96.4 | 115.5 | 117.1 | 56.1 | 26.2 | 14.7 | 25.8 |
OMD Prediction
Our Record: 14-6/8-12 ATS
The Orlando Magic are rolling right now. They have won 10 of their last 11 games and their defense is as strong and dominant as ever.
They are feasting on a soft spot in their schedule. And like last year, they are dominating some of the worst teams in the league. They are 10-2 against teams with records below .500 (only the Cleveland Cavaliers are better at 11-1).
The critics and skeptics might say this is a sign to be concerned with the Magic. Their record is not backed up with big wins yet.
Still, everyone has seen this Magic team step up when it needs to. Most of their losses came during a five-game losing streak when they were on the road and dealing with the aftermath of Paolo Banchero's injury. The team has come a long way since then. And beating who is in front of you is an important skill.
The Magic will get to test that skill again in a place where they have struggled to win.
Orlando has only won four times in 21 games at Barclays Center since it opened in 2012. That includes last year's loss in the opening game of the NBA Cup.
The Magic learned their lesson from that 20-point loss. That margin of defeat cost the Magic a chance to advance to the quarterfinal of the inaugural tournament. The Magic are well aware of what these games mean.
Brooklyn is coming off a stunning win at Phoenix on Wednesday to end a 3-1 road trip, sweeping all three games on the West Coast. The Brooklyn Nets and the Los Angeles Lakers are the only two teams with top-10 offenses the Magic have beaten. Orlando still has a lot to prove.
Brooklyn's offense will definitely take a hit with some absences in this one. Dennis Schroder is OUT for personal reasons. Cam Thomas is also OUT with a left hamstring strain. Nic Claxton (lower back injury management) and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle sprain) are both QUESTIONABLE.
Their absences will play a major role in this game. The Nets need their veterans to survive.
3 Things to Watch
3. Going Big
The Orlando Magic welcomed Wendell Carter back to the lineup on Wednesday during the win over the Chicago Bulls. Coach Jamahl Mosley stressed the game was not about Wendell Carter's counting stats. They just wanted to see him get reintegrated with the group.
But Mosley went a bit off-board with his starting lineup. He moved Wendell Carter into the starting lineup alongside Goga Bitadze. As the league goes smaller, Mosley and the Magic decided to go bigger. That is part of a general trend of going against the grain with this team and finding success.
Whether this arrangement works or not is still the question. But it worked against the Bulls.
The lineups with Carter and Bitadze together have outscored opponents 42-29 in 14 minutes in two games (almost all of them were in Wednesday's game). The Magic shot 16 for 25 from the floor and 5 for 10 from three.
It is just one game. But the Brooklyn Nets are not much stronger defensively than the Chicago Bulls. It will be interesting to see if the Magic return to this lineup a second time.
2. The Veterans Difference
The Brooklyn Nets were expected to be at the bottom of the standings in the Eastern Conference this year. They were not expected to make much of a splash or be competitive. But through the first quarter of the season, Brooklyn finds itself in the Play-In chase.
A lot of that is because of the usual reason these young teams succeed early in the season—their veterans.
If I had one takeaway from the Orlando Magic's win over the Brooklyn Nets in the home opener it was that the Nets struggled to operate with a veteran point guard like Dennis Schroder on the bench.
The numbers bear that out.
The Nets have a +2.6 net rating with Dennis Schroder on the floor—and a +4.7 net rating with Nic Claxton on the floor and a +6.9 with Dorian Finney-Smith on the floor. Those three comprise most of the five players with positive on-court net ratings on this team.
Predictably then, the Nets have a team-worst -9.4 net rating with Schroder off the floor and a -8.9 net rating with Finney-Smith off the floor.
Veterans make a difference. And with Schroder OUT for personal reasons and Claxton and Finney-Smth QUESTIONABLE with various injuries, the Nets could be without three of their most consequential players.
1. NBA Cup math
As we enter the final two days of NBA Cup group play action, the math is going to get complicated trying to figure out what teams need to advance out of group play. Unlike last year, the Orlando Magic are not going to be sitting and waiting on the final day hoping they get in. The Magic still have two NBA Cup games left.
The simplest part of this equation is if the Orlando Magic win their next two cup games—Friday at the Brooklyn Nets and Tuesday at the New York Knicks—they win Group A. In all likelihood, the Orlando Magic win those two games and get a home game in the quarterfinals (the Milwaukee Bucks have caught them in the point differential at +29 through three games to the Magic's +37). They could easily still win the top seed in the East.
Beyond that, the Magic are in a good position to win the wild card if they do not win Group A. That comes down to Tuesday's game with only the point differential in Friday's game determining where the Magic stand.
Orlando is 2-0 with a +37 point differential. Only Milwaukee has a +20 point differential at the moment. But the Boston Celtics (2-1, +14), Cleveland Cavaliers (1-1, +15) are looming. They remain the top two teams in the Eastern Conference.
Still, the Magic have the inside track to advance in this tournament with two wins or with a close loss in one of their two remaining cup games.