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- Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; Jan. 17 in Boston; April 9 in Orlando
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch
Boston | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
99.0 | Pace | 97.5 |
119.6 | Off. Rtg. | 110.2 |
109.5 | Def. Rtg. | 106.5 |
55.8 | eFG% | 51.9 |
27.9 | O.Reb.% | 30.4 |
11.8 | TO% | 15.5 |
23.6 | FTR | 28.0 |
3. The 3-Point Math Problem
The latest hand-wringing about the NBA concerns the dramatic increase in 3-point attempts in the league.
That is best represented by the Boston Celtics, who have taken 3-point shooting to new extremes. The Boston Celtics lead the league with 51.0 3-point attempts per game, more than seven more 3-point attempts than the second-place Chicago Bulls.
But the Celtics rank 15th in 3-point field goal percentage at 36.6 percent. It is not about the efficiency of their 3-point shooting. It is about the volume they take. Boston's 18.7 3-point makes per game matter far more than the percentage they make them.
For a team like the Orlando Magic, that is tough to keep up with. Even if they were fully healthy. Orlando is last in the league shooting 30.8 percent from three. The team is 29th in makes at 11.5 per game.
The one thing that cannot happen for the Magic to have a chance against the Celtics is for the Celtics to outpace the Magic from beyond the arc. Orlando to keep up with Boston's 3-point makes one way or another. Or limit their attempts entirely.
Orlando still leads the league in 3-point attempts allowed per game at 31.8. That would be 20 attempts below Boston's season average. That might be what it takes to have a chance in this one.,
2. Where's the bench?
The Orlando Magic got dealt the worst news on Sunday when their fears were confirmed that Moe Wagner had torn his left ACL. He was in the midst of a career season, averaging 12.9 points per game. He was the anchor for one of the best bench units in the league.
But with the Magic's depth stretched thin recently because of all the injuries, the bench had begun slipping. Orlando is fifth in the league averaging 40.0 points per game. Cole Anthony's 35-point game on Saturday certainly made up for what the Magic lost in Wagner.
But now Orlando will have to figure out how to band together off the bench as much as they had to with the team's starting lineup. The Magic have to find scoring at some point and from somewhere.
The Boston Celtics are not a deep team with scoring. Boston averages. 29.9 points per game off the bench. Their scoring comes from their starters. But they are devastating there. And there are plenty of dangerous players who complement the starting group well.
1. Jayson Tatum, the MVP
Jayson Tatum is not a quiet superstar by any means. Everyone generally knows of his greatness and generally knows what a concern he is on a nightly basis. He is quiet because the Boston Celtics are such a dangerous team as a unit and because Tatum himself is not the loud type.
His numbers do all the talking. And this year they are singing as Tatum has entered the MVP conversation (although he does not seem to be the favorite).
Tatum is averaging 28.8 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game and 5.7 assists per game. He is shooting 46.3 percent from the floor and 37.2 percent from deep. Tatum is as good as he has ever been.
The Orlando Magic have typically been a strong defensive team against Tatum though. He averages only 20.1 points per game in 19 games against the Magic. Much of that comes down to the size the Magic can throw at him. They lack that size in this game.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic: Injury Report & Projected Lineups
Boston Celtics Injury Report
- Sam Hauser - QUESTIONABLE (Lower Back Spasms)
- Baylor Scheierman - OUT (G-League Assignment)
- JD Davison - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Drew Peterson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
- Anton Watson - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Orlando Magic Injury Report
- Paolo Banchero - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Franz Wagner - OUT (Torn Right Oblique)
- Jalen Suggs - QUESTIONABLE (Right Ankle Sprain)
- Moe Wagner - OUT (Torn Left ACL)
- Gary Harris - QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Strain)
- Mac McClung - OUT (G-League Two-Way)
Projected Starting Lineups
Boston | Orlando | |
|---|---|---|
Jrue Holiday | PG | Anthony Black |
Jaylen Brown | SF | Tristan da Silva |
Kristaps Porzingis | C | Goga Bitadze |
Jayson Tatum | PF | Wendell Carter |
Derrick White | SG | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope |
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic: Prediction
Our Record: 20-10/12-18 ATS
The Orlando Magic are still searching for victories against the elite teams in the NBA. Doing so while undermanned would be impressive. Just as it was impressive for the Orlando Magic to erase the deficit and defeat the Miami Heat on Saturday.
The Heat are a much more flawed team in many ways. Certainly when compared to the Boston Celtics.
Anything is possible in a single game -- a good shooting night or a bad shooting night -- and the Magic's defense is good enough to give them a chance.
But the margin for error is small. Possibly too small for a team like the Magic going up against a high-powered and focused team like the Celtics. This is as difficult a matchup as it comes for Orlando. The Magic cannot afford to make mistakes. The Celtics will make them pay for every single one.
Can Orlando put together such a game? Yes, the team can. Any team can. But it is not a safe bet the Magic will.