Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (April 29, 2025): 3 Things to Watch, Odds, and Prediction

The Orlando Magic are on the brink of elimination as they take on the Boston Celtics in Game 5. The Magic's season comes down to 48 minutes.
Wendell Carter has had a strong series on the glass. The Orlando Magic need him to step up once again and help the Magic control the glass.
Wendell Carter has had a strong series on the glass. The Orlando Magic need him to step up once again and help the Magic control the glass. | Winslow Townson-Imagn Images

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics: Stats and 3 Keys to Watch

Orlando

Playoffs

Boston

89.8

Pace

89.8

105.9

Off. Rtg.

114.4

114.4

Def. Rtg.

105.9

48.4

eFG%

51.9

31.3

O.Reb.%

33.1

12,8

TO%

15.0

24.3

FTR

33.4

3. Heavy usage

There is no secret the Orlando Magic are leaning heavily on their two star players.

Paolo Banchero leads the playoffs with 27.3 field goal attempts per game. Franz Wagner is third with 23.3 field goal attempts per game.

Banchero has a usage rate of 37.2 percent. Wagner has a usage rate of 33.3 percent. Banchero is fifth in the league with 92.8 touches per game, and Wagner is at 80.5 touches per game—they were at 77.2 and 67.0 touches per game in the regular season.

To say the least, they are heavily involved in everything the Magic are doing at all times. Orlando does not have much else to turn to at this point.

Against this Celtics defense, the Magic have reverted to giving the ball to their two stars and letting them create. And they are doing a lot of creating.

It is not the best offense. And the Boston Celtics are seeing their offense change too -- they went from 274.7 passes per game to 230.5 passes per game, according to Second Spectrum.

This is playoff basketball apparently. At least when it is two elite defensive teams.

2. Cold shooting

The Orlando Magic's defense has been as advertised in keeping the Boston Celtis from 3-point attempts. Boston averaged 48.2 3-point attempts per game and shot 36.8 percent from three during the regular season. The Celtics took 49.6 3-point attempts per 100 possessions.

During this series, Boston is shooting far fewer attempts per game (33.0 per game) and 36.7 attempts per 100 possessions.

That would not be a huge problem if the Celtics were as proficient as they were in the regular season. Boston is hitting only 34.8 percent of its threes. In Games 3 and 4, the Celtics made only 18 of 58 3-pointers (31.0 percent).

Some of the Magic's ability to stay with and keep up with the Celtics comes down to 3-point shooting luck. Orlando is limiting attempts. But the Celtics are also missing shots.

1. Attacking the glass

This series has come down to a lot of hidden possessions. The team that gets extra shots and controls possessions wins these games. Orlando has more ground to make up, of course. The Magic need to win these possessions.

Rebounding is a particularly big stat. The team that has won second chance points is 3-1 in the series—Orlando ended up winning the battle in Game 4.

Rebounding was one of the areas the Boston Celtics were concerned about entering this series. Boston has come up with big rebounds throughout the course of the series. It is about when they come too.

The Magic are going to miss shots. Getting extra shot attempts is critical to keeping the ball away from the Celtics and critical to getting another crack at scoring. It helps control tempo too. The Magic need the extra shots and extra chances when they can.

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics: Injury Report & Projected Lineups

Orlando Magic Injury Report

  • Jalen Suggs - OUT (Left Knee Trochlea Cartilage Tear)
  • Moe Wagner - OUT (Left Knee Torn ACL)

Boston Celtics Injury Report

  • Jaylen Brown - QUESTIONABLE (Right Knee Posterior Impingement)
  • Jrue Holiday - OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)

Projected Lineups

Orlando

Boston

Cory Joseph

PG

Derrick White

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

SG

Jaylen Brown

Franz Wagner

SF

Jayson Tatum

Paolo Banchero

PF

Al Horford

Wendell Carter

C

Kristaps Porzingis

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics: Prediction

Our Record: 50-37/44-43 ATS

The Orlando Magic know they face a difficult task as they head back to TD Garden. The Boston Celtics are a tough team as it is. But with the chance to close the series at home, they feel nearly untouchable.

Franz Wagner said he did not believe the Magic have played their best game in the series yet. There is no time to leave it in reserve now. Orlando needs its absolute best game to have a chance to defeat Boston and extend the series.

These elimination games are always tough. There will come a point when the Celtics are laying a big run and the Magic will need to find the will and poise to answer. These games tend to get out of hand for that reason. Orlando will face that existential dread at some point.

It is hard to count the Magic out. You want to believe they will push through that point and remain competitive. But the reality is the Magic do not have the firepower to stay with the Celtics.

Unless this is an outlier game for the Magic, the season appears to be nearing its end.

Schedule