Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns (Nov. 18, 2024): 3 Things to Watch, Odds and Prediction
Nov. 18, 2024. 9-5. 66. 8-6. 38. Magic Suns Matchup 11.18.24. Magic by 1.5 (O/U 209.5). 9P. FanDuel Sports Network Florida
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Season Series: Tonight in Phoenix; Dec. 8 in Orlando
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orlando | 98.8 | 108.3 | 103.5 | 51.0 | 28.6 | 15.2 | 28.1 |
Phoenix | 98.5 | 112.3 | 113.4 | 54.5 | 26.4 | 14.0 | 28.1 |
OMD Prediction
Our Record: 10-4/6-8 ATS
The Orlando Magic have been two different teams at home and on the road. At home, they have been a dominant force. Their defense tightens up and teams have trouble sniffing the paint and sniffing any chance to score.
On the road? The defense is still pretty good. But the offense has been. . . it is rough. The Magic's five-game road trip a few weeks ago ended without a win and some, frankly, embarrassing and dispiriting offensive efforts.
The Magic's three-game road trip feels like a chance for redemption. The shock of Paolo Banchero's injury has worn off. The team has found some footing during the homestand to get those five wins back. But now the Magic need to make this thing travel. They need to build on this confidence they have built.
The Phoenix Suns are a difficult challenge on that front.
Devin Booker is an excellent scorer, having dropped 44 points, six rebounds and seven assists in Sunday's buzzer-beating loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. But they are without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic are coming off injuries and their status on the back-to-back is unknown—they both played in Sunday's game.
The Suns are leaning heavily on one player with their injuries right now and that favors a defensive team like the Magic. Even if Booker goes off.
66. Prediction. 110. 38. Magic Suns Prediction 11.18.24. 106
3 Things to Watch
3. Shooting shooting shooting
It is impossible to talk about the Orlando Magic and not address the elephant in the room.
The Magic need to make shots. And, especially on the road, they have to make enough shots to stay competitive.
That is what they dropped the ball with on the first road trip, shooting 23.5 percent from three on that road. It is impossible to win shooting that poorly on the road.
Orlando was not that much better during the homestand. In the last five games, the Magic shot 31.2 percent from three. But the difference is they still managed to score enough points, posting a 113.2 offensive rating during the homestand. The Magic had a 98.0 offensive rating during the road trip.
Orlando was decent on defense during the road trip, but the offense just could not do anything to highlight how good it was. That is what changed at home.
At some point, the Magic are going to break the dam and hit some shots. And making enough shots is still the key to figuring out if the Magic are going to win or not.
2. Slow Starts
Part of that equation starts with the first quarter and how the team starts games. In the Orlando Magic's worst losses of the last road trip against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks, the Orlando Magic got off to slow starts they could not recover from. Even in the loss to the Indiana Pacers, they fell behind by 18 points until they found a groove.
At home, the Magic trailed after several first quarters. But they had the energy at home to rally. And they have the best net rating in the fourth quarter in the league. Essentially, if the Magic can keep a game close at the end of the game, they have a good chance to win it with their defense.
On the road then, the Magic have to get off to better starts. Orlando is 24th in the league with a -9.5 net rating in the first quarter that includes an oddly terrible 117.7 defensive rating. Orlando is more likely to give up a 30-point quarter in the first quarter. On the road, they have a 125.0 defensive rating in the first quarter!
The Magic have always rounded into form. But on the road it has often come too late. If Orlando wants to fix their road woes, the team needs to win the first quarter.
1. The one that got away
The biggest complaint and biggest criticism of the Orlando Magic's offseason was how they left the point guard position unaddressed. They stuck with Jalen Suggs and their pair of star forwards to handle playmaking duties. The experiment has been OK at best.
Banchero and Wagner have grown into playmaking roles. But with Banchero out, the Magic have pushed Suggs to the front and he has had some ups and downs handling that. Anthony Black has handled backup duties and has had his ups and downs too, sometimes completely changing games with his energy and sometimes struggling with the role.
Magic fans really wanted Tyus Jones in free agency this offseason to keep the point guard position steady. That he signed for a minimum contract to play with the Phoenix Suns made it seem even more frustrating the Magic did not turn to him.
Jones is averaging 10.6 points per game, 6.6 assists per game and 1.1 turnovers per game for the Suns so far this season. He is shooting 37.1 percent from three. He has delivered everything that was promised.
The biggest concern with him was his defense. The Suns have kept their defensive average with Jones on the floor. But Phoenix is not a particularly strong defensive team this year so it is impossible to say how he would fit.
Jones may remain the one that got away and what could have been.
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