Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies (Oct. 26, 2024): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction

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Season Series: Tonight in Memphis; Feb. 21 in Orlando
2024 Season Series: Grizzlies 107, Magic 106 in Memphis on Jan. 26; Magic 118, Grizzlies 88 in Orlando on March 30

OMD Prediction

Our Record: 1-1/1-1 ATS

Everything feels very tricky at this stage of the season. Teams are still figuring out their identities and what works and what does not work with any new players or new dynamics within the team. That includes a team with a lot of carry over like the Orlando Magic.

The Magic continue to re-establish their defensive identity. That was a big puzzle piece in the Orlando Magic's 116-101 victory over the Brooklyn Nets on Friday. Even with their offense struggling to create much traction, the defense was still solid, and did a lot of work to create offense to keep the team in control and afloat.

Orlando should feel like it knows its defense will travel and will be there regardless of how anything is going.

The Memphis Grizzlies are still figuring out who they are. They have played some games at a breakneck pace this season but have struggled to show off the depth needed to sustain it. A 20-point loss to the Houston Rockets may be a dose of reality—or proof the Memphis Grizzlies are not the juggernaut they were before Ja Morant's suspension and injury.

With both teams on a back-to-back and traveling, it is anybody's guess how this game might go. The Magic might have the more trustworthy thing established in their defense.

3 Things to watch

3. Back-to-back issues

The Orlando Magic have talked throughout the preseason about their improved maturity and understanding of the value of each game. The team has looked like it so far with the way they have approached the season. Franz Wagner said of Friday's win that the team could have played better and did not play to the team's lofty standard.

A big focus for the team is to shore up the weak spots from last year—especially winning on the road. One area they could get a lot better at then is winning on back-to-backs.

The Magic last year went 5-10 last year on the second night of back-to-backs (they were 1-12 in 2023). The more alarming facet of that record though was the Magic's defensive rating dropped from 110.8 overall to 116.1 when they had zero days of rest.

You expect some drop-off defensively for sure. But that massive drop-off with how poor Orlando's offense was last year was a big reason the Magic struggled in these scenarios. Seeing the Magic lock in better defensively even if there is some expected slippage is huge.

These are hidden wins and the Magic have to find a way to win more games on the second night of back-to-backs. This one certainly will not be easy.

2. Ja Morant's return

The Memphis Grizzlies are one of the most difficult teams to get a gauge on because of their history and the talent they have on the roster. After all, it was only two seasons ago that the Grizzlies won 51 games and were the 2-seed in the Western Conference.

The suspension and the injury to Ja Morant derailed their season last year, tumbling them to 27-55. They shifted some aspects of their roster and gave a lot of young players opportunities. This year's team is a mix of the team that won two years ago and the young group that held the ship last year. So which team will Memphis be this year?

That is not clear to this point in the regular season. The Memphis Grizzlies scored a close win over the Utah Jazz on Wednesday before losing 128-108 to the Houston Rockets on Friday.

All eyes are clearly on Ja Morant as he works his way back into the fold. And he has had some stellar moments already, averaging 23.0 points per game and shooting 51.7 percent (15 for 29) in the early season. He has added 6.0 assists per game for good measure. Morant is still every bit the dynamic player that was the catalyst for the Grizzlies the last few years.

But he has struggled mightily with turnovers, turning it over nine times in two games. Memphis as a whole has struggled with turnovers. That is the big thing that the Magic are experts at forcing. And so how Orlando handles Morant will be a big piece of the puzzle for this game.

1. Franz Wagner's shooting revival

While Friday's game brought with it a lot of frustration over the disjointed nature of the game and the offense especially, Franz Wagner continues to look impressive and continues to show out for the Orlando Magic.

Wagner scored 29 points for the Magic in the win over the Brooklyn Nets, making 10 of 19 shots and adding six rebounds and five assists for good measure. He was confident going downhill and worked well again off cuts.

The biggest growth though is the one Magic fans worried the most about all offseason. Wagner hit 3 of 6 3-pointers in the game Friday, his second game with that mark. With two games under his belt, everyone is cautiously optimistic that Wagner's 3-point shot is not something to worry about anymore.

Wagner has clearly adjusted his form, using a more traditional form rather than the push-shot-looking form he was using the last two years. There may still be some inconsistencies with his arc, but he is shooting confidently now and it has clearly done wonders for him.

It is still early for everything. Nobody should be writing anything in ink through two games. But this has been an encouraging development. And with Wagner anchoring the second unit, his constant pressure on the rim and from the perimeter could make the Magic's bench even more dangerous.