At the beginning of The Wagner Bros documentary, Moe Wagner is in Los Angeles on the phone with his agent and venting to his brother, Franz.
Wagner was coming off a career season that began to establish himself as a key piece of a growing young team. But he was a free agent after completing his minimum deal. The journeyman player was looking for a pay increase. One he had deserved. It was still stressful.
He signed a two-year deal for $16 million with a team option on the second year. He had gotten the contract he wanted if not the long-term security he desired.
After the season was over, the cameras again caught him stressing about his contract situation. To maximize their cap room, the Magic declined that team option on Wagner's contract. He was again in limbo even if it felt certain the Magic would reward their backup center and sparkplug with a new contract.
Everything ended well. Wagner signed a two-year, $22 million with a team option on the second year once again.
That is where the story loses its happy ending. Despite a career season where Wagner averaged a career-high 12.9 points per game and grabbed 4.9 rebounds per game, his torn ACL in December has put him back into the contract crosshairs.
Undoubtedly, Wagner is critical to what the Magic do. Orlando is 14-25 since Wagner's injury, tumbling from fighting for homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference to eighth and in the Play-In Tournament.
Still, the Magic have some contract decisions to make. And whether the Magic opt to bring back Wagner or decline his team option is one of the big offseason decisions the Magic have in front of them, especially considering it is expected to be an offseason of change throughout the roster.
It is not clear what the Magic will do.
The tax situation
The big pivot point for the Orlando Magic is whether they want to enter the offseason as a tax team or not. Orlando will be over the luxury tax next season regardless of what happens with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs' massive extensions kicking in.
As things stand, the Magic have $175.2 million committed to next season before taking into account team options for Moe Wagner ($11 million), Gary Harris ($7.5 million), Cory Joseph ($3.5 million) and Caleb Houstan ($2.2 million) according to Spotrac. That puts the Magic $12.7 million under the anticipated $187.9 million tax threshhold.
Unlike last year where declining Wagner's team option was needed to maximize cap room, the Magic have no benefit to cutting Wagner loose or declining that team option other than sneaking below the tax line and avoiding those penalties.
They would be under the tax if they declined the other options. This is, of course, before accounting for the Magic's draft picks which would then put the Magic over the tax line.
Orlando being above the tax line next year seems unavoidable.
It is unclear how much the Magic will be willing to go over the tax line next year. But they will be above the tax line and will blow through the first apron line for the 2027 season Paolo Banchero's anticipated max extension kicks in.
Weighing Moe Wagner's worth
The Orlando Magic may try to do what it has done with Wagner the last two offseasons—decline his team option and sign him to a new two-year deal or a long-term deal with team options once again. The Magic have maintained their flexibility with him to maneuver around the cap. Operating as under the tax might serve them better for the trades they want to do knowing they can re-sign Wagner using Bird Rights to virtually any amount.
That still runs the risk of Wagner signing elsewhere. The Magic can come to an agreement, complete other business and then sign Wagner last. But Wagner was very distraught about the Magic doing this last year even if on the outside it seemed his return was always going to happen.
Orlando ultimately has to decide whether the team should stick by Wagner as he goes through his injury rehab.
President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has a reputation of doing right by players and especially players on his roster—for better or worse. That is the other consideration.
Unless something develops this offseason—Wagner's option deadline is June 29, 2025 (the day before free agency begins and thus after the draft)—the Magic would be better suited to keep Wagner around.
All indications are the Magic would like to keep Wagner. There is no sense the Magic want to cut bait and move in a different direction.
Only the Magic and Wagner really know how he is progressing through rehab from his torn ACL. If he seems on track for a return in December, knowing how important he has been to the team, it might be better not to risk alienating him and keeping him secure in his role and spot on the team.
With the Magic unable to create open cap room, declining the option seems unnecessary. The Magic gain no advantage other than how much more money they can take to avoid the tax or how deep into the tax they want to dive into.
But Orlando's era of free money is over. They spent a lot last summer securing their own players to use as trade ballast. Now Orlando will have to expend some of those assets to improve the roster and navigate the new world of tax and apron restrictions.
That may end up costing them Wagner in the end, even if it does not come this summer or force their hand with his contract this summer.