The Orlando Magic are all-in on this team over the next few seasons. That's an extremely risky bet given the injury history of this team - and particularly if Jalen Suggs' knees are set up for failure.
The Magic rose above a tumultuous year last season, finishing 41-41 and securing the seventh seed despite a myriad of injury issues. Franz Wagner missed nearly two months, Paolo Banchero played in only 46 games, and Jalen Suggs made it through only 35 games as multiple serious injuries kept chopping him down.
This summer, Orlando bet that their team's talent level is good enough to propel them to the top of the Eastern Conference if everyone stays healthy. They traded a bundle of first-round picks to the Memphis Grizzlies for underrated 2-guard Desmond Bane and are poised to make a run in a wide-open Eastern Conference.
The theory behind the move makes a lot of sense. Their biggest weakness -- Death Star thermal exhaust port type of weakness -- was (and is) shooting. The only player in their full rotation who shot even league average was Caleb Houstan, and he was their 10th man. Suggs, Wagner, Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Tristan Da Silva -- all of their rotation players returning this season have proven to be inconsistent or downright terrible 3-point shooters.
Desmond Bane steps in and immediately addresses that weakness, as does veteran point guard addition Tyus Jones. The vision for the starting lineup are four playmakers and shot creators in Suggs, Bane, Wagner and Banchero with a versatile center at the 5. That lineup makes sense -- again, if this team can stay healthy.
Wagner and Banchero both suffered torn oblique muscles last season, a type of injury unlikely to be a recurring issue. Bane has missed plenty of time but most from one-time or nagging injuries rather than something degenerative.
Suggs, on the other hand, is a completely different story.
Jalen Suggs' knee is a terrifying flaw in the plan
The injury that ultimately ended Suggs' season last year was knee surgery to remove a "cartilage fragment" from his knee. That injury flared up during his ramp-up from an earlier injury, and he wasn't able to play at a normal level without having surgery to address the issue.
Cartilage injuries in the knee are a scary proposition. First is the possibility -- nay, the likelihood - of reinjury. Once you have some cartilage removed via surgery, the chances of needing future knee operations goes up significantly. Whether from one wrong step or thousands of flexes and compressions, the knee is a ticking time bomb for another injury.
The other terrifying piece to this puzzle is that even if he is "healthy" and on the court, his knee injury could reduce his effectiveness. He may lose some of his lateral agility, or his explosion. He may also subconsciously pull back slightly to try and manage the health of his knee. Taking 10 or 15 percent off of his defensive intensity could fundamentally change the type of player that he is.
Suggs is a good offensive player; he's smart, he sets up teammates, he has decent touch. The reason he is a Top-75 player in the league, however, is his defensive impact. He is a bulldog on defense, defending multiple positions and flying around off-ball to generate turnovers. If he goes from amazing to merely good on defense, his offensive flaws are magnified and he is no longer an automatically perfect fit in the Magic's backcourt.
The Magic are betting on Jalen Suggs to not only be available, but to be the same level of defender he was in 2023-24 when he was named to an All-Defense team. The possibility that his knee lets him, the Magic and their fans down is substantial -- and that is a terrifying reality to face.