Jalen Suggs' unique contract will be a boost for Orlando Magic's title chase
Jalen Suggs said he could feel the weight released off his shoulders after he signed his new contract with the Orlando Magic. It may have been something inevitable and something the Magic would have taken care of if they ended up going to restricted free agency, but it was still a relief.
The usually jovial Suggs was a bit more subdued throughout the preseason. Even if he would not admit it, his contract future was weighing on his mind. It certainly seemed to be affecting some of his play during the exhibition games.
It was clearly a point of some tension. And fans were feeling it too as the Magic worked to cement their future.
The start of the season has relieved a lot of concerns. The Magic have now set their starting lineup with long-term contracts thanks to the max extension for Franz Wagner, contract extension for Wendell Carter and the free agent signing of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Paolo Banchero will get his max contract next summer.
Suggs signed his five-year, $150.5 million contract before last week's deadline. What everyone was waiting to find out was the structure of that deal. And when Fred Katz of The Athletic was the first to report that it was front-loaded, it raised the intrigue of this deal.
This is a deal that will help the Magic when they will need it most—while they are restricted by cap rules in how much they can spend and the tools at their disposal.
While Suggs will get paid a hefty sum of $35 million next year (an estimated 22 percent of the salary cap), he will end his contract in the 2030 season at $26.7 million (an estimated 11.8 percent of the salary cap). Paying that much for a starter and a potential all-defensive team player will be a huge bargain.
Orlando has structured many of its contracts to feel the pain early in the deals to give them more flexibility when Wagner is deep into his extension along with Banchero. The Magic will be paying the most for Suggs when they can afford to do so. They will gain flexibility as Suggs' contract ages.
All of this is important considering the next stage for the Magic's growth and development will likely come in exploring the trade market. The team is not set to have cap room any time soon.
The Magic are over the cap now
Even before Jalen Suggs signed his new contract, the Orlando Magic were slated to be over the salary cap next season although still under the first apron and the restrictions that come with it.
This is indeed a new era.
According to Spotrac, the Magic already have $182.2 million in guaranteed salary committed to next year's team. The NBA's salary cap is expected to be $154.6 million. And the luxury tax line is at $187.9 million.
That would mean picking up Moe Wagner's $11.0 million team option would put the Magic over the tax line. Not to mention the team's potential two first-round picks in the upcoming draft.
The Magic should still be well below the first apron line of $195.9 million. But the team is flirting with the apron already.
Part of the risk of re-signing Suggs to what everyone understood would be a $30-plus million contract was that the Magic would stretch their books pretty thin. All the cap flexibility the Magic have carefully managed through front-loaded contracts and team options would get spent up retaining their own players.
The league is still adjusting its cap projections. But next year will be the first year of the league's massive new television deal. Under the new CBA, the salary cap can only increase by a maximum of 10 percent. Player salaries can only increase by eight percent.
So as it stands, the Magic are paying the most for Suggs not only before Banchero's big contract hits, but also while the salary cap is at its lowest. The Magic will get more room to explore.
Put it this way: The salary cap is expected to be $170.6 million in the 2027 season. The Magic have $157.4 million committed to that season already (including likely options but excluding Cole Anthony's team option for now). Paolo Banchero's extension would eat up at least $42.7 million.
That still puts the Magic will over the salary cap and likely over the tax line too. But once Banchero is locked in, the salary cap rises faster than Banchero's salary. The team will get a little wiggle room and potentially stay under the the apron because Suggs' contract will decrease over time.
It is too hard to predict what the Magic's cap status would be two or three years down the road. A lot can change. But it is easy to see what the Magic's cap reality will be.
They are an over-the-cap team for the foreseeable future. And they will be flirting with the tax line in the near future and perhaps even the first apron soon after.
The Magic have set their stage for a title-making move
The ultimate goal for the Orlando Magic is to win a title. And as president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said, the team cannot stay together forever. They will have to make some difficult decisions about players in the near future.
That may mean the team parts with Gary Harris to keep their tax bill down this season. It may mean making tough decisions on key players on the roster especially as younger players come into their own while on their rookie contracts.
It also means, Orlando has one big bite at the apple. The team has assembled its contracts to be ready for a trade. But because the team is flirting with the rules of the aprons, it may have one shot at making a major deal.
Suggs' declining contract will likely will help with those efforts when that time comes.
Regardless, when it comes to the next move for the Magic, they will be entering a new phase where their draft picks and roster decisions will have reverberations and affect the team's future. Mistakes will hurt a lot more. And that may include contracts they have signed and players they have already invested in.
For now, the Magic are comfortable with the roster they have and its growth and development. This season so far has shown that to be a wise investment. But there is obviously still a lot of season to go.
Orlando clearly has a lot of impetus and reason to keep the roster together. The team has advanced and grown the way it wants and may naturally progress into a championship-level team. The Magic are paying a pretty heavy price for it.
But that is the nature of fielding a contending tam. The question will be what comes next for the Magic.
Whatever it is, Suggs' contract should give the team more wiggle room to make that happen and set them up to keep building thanks to its unique structure.