With what projects to be a wide-open East, the Magic are firmly in the mix, and Jalen Suggs will be the x-factor that determines how far they go in the postseason.
Injuries have unfortunately been the story for Suggs through the first four seasons of his career, and he's only played 75+ games once, which came during the 2023-24 season. For context, Suggs has only appeared in 211 of 328 (64.3%) of regular-season games since entering the league.
Last season, Suggs only appeared in 35 games and averaged 16.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and shot an underwhelming 41.0 percent from the floor and 31.4 percent from behind the arc. In fairness, Suggs was tasked with carrying more of a load offensively after Paolo Banchero sustained an abdominal injury just five games into the season, and Franz Wagner would then sustain the same injury weeks later.
Suggs' defensive impact
Jalen Suggs has often been quoted as the 'head of the snake' defensively speaking, and he was rewarded by making the All-Defensive Second Team in 2024. Suggs prides himself on the defensive end, and he's helped spearhead Orlando into a top-three defense in back-to-back seasons.
It's not only a night-and-day difference in the stat sheet when the Magic don't have Suggs, but stylistically they look completely different. In the 35 games Suggs played in last season, the Magic were 20-15, and in those other 47 games, they were 21-26.
Here's a chart to break down Orlando's defensive rating when Suggs played, didn't play, or played alongside just Franz Wagner.
Defensive RTG | Paolo played | Paolo didn't play |
|---|---|---|
Franz played | 100.5 | 105.1 |
Franz didn't play | N/A | 107.8 |
In the 10 games Suggs missed from Jan. 4 until Jan. 24, the Magic were 2-8 over that stretch and fell all the way to 14th in defensive rating (113.4). You cannot overstate and overemphasize just how important he is for the Magic on that side of the ball.
Jalen's offensive game
Where Suggs will have to take that next step forward will have to be with his shooting from the three-point line. Through his first four seasons, Suggs has been a career 32.9 percent shooter from deep and hasn't found that consistency yet, even though we've seen glimpses of it.
Jalen got rewarded with a contract after his career season in 2023-24, where he played in 75 games, asserted himself as one of the best perimeter defenders in the game, and he also shot a very efficient 39.7 percent from distance on 5.1 three-point attempts a game.
Suggs in the 2024 season shot a career-best 40.7 percent from distance on catch-and-shoot threes. Compare that to last season, where he regressed and shot just 34.5 percent from three on catch-and-shoot.
Orlando's pathway to success
The additions of players like Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones this offseason should make the Magic an improved three-point shooting team, and therefore allowing players like Suggs and others to have more space and fewer contested threes.
It's no secret that the Magic believe that they can contend in this year's Eastern Conference, especially with an elite young duo in Paolo and Franz. Everyone knows just how talented and capable those two are at taking over games, and that's been demonstrated in back-to-back postseasons.
As great as Paolo, Franz, and Desmond should be, that trio won't be enough to win the East, and you can't overlook Jalen's importance to this team. If Orlando wants to go deeper in the postseason, they're going to need Jalen Suggs to continue to step up his game, and he's going to biggest x-factor for the Magic this season.