Franz Wagner somehow keeps getting better as an overall basketball player and worse as a 3-point shooter. In his first two seasons, he was a fine shooter, around 36%, which was perfectly fine with how good he was becoming off the dribble. In his next two seasons, he shot under 30% from 3-point range — the volume stayed the same, and although his role in the Magic offense increased steadily each of those seasons, there's no clear reason why Wagner's longball has abandoned him.
And as we head toward training camp, Wagner's game remains an enigma. He's shot just 33% from deep in EuroBasket this summer and has still averaged over 20 points per game for Germany, which takes on Slovenia on Wednesday. He continues to refine the whole of his offensive game while his outside shot continues to be a near non-factor. He's an oxymoron of sorts.
An unreliable 3-point shot isn't going to take Wagner's career. Last year, he took more than twice as many two-pointers (13.5) as he did 3-pointers (5.9). He was top 20 in the NBA in both drives per game and free throw attempts, and he was elite finishing at the rim (72.6% within three feet). There's a lot to love about Wagner's game inside the arc, and he was still above league-average efficiency last year despite being the team's only offensive option when both Jalen Suggs and Paolo Banchero were hurt.
Where did things go wrong for Franz Wagner's shot?
Watching highlights from Wagner's best 3-point shooting season (2022-23) and last season, there isn't a clear difference in the mechanics of his shot. You could possibly convince yourself that he's developed a bit of a hitch the past two years, but that might just be searching for something that's not there. He seems to just be... missing a lot more shots.
I mentioned the offensive load that Wagner carried last year; that could play a part, as the percentage of his 3-pointers that were assisted plummeted last year to 69.2%, meaning he was shooting far more off the dribble than ever before. Taking harder shots is bound to negatively impact a player's shooting percentage, but this is now two full seasons of Wagner's shooting nearly being bad enough for opponents to dare him to take 3s — something we never thought would be true after Wagner's first two seasons.
We know Franz Wagner is a cornerstone piece for the Magic. He might be the cornerstone, depending on which fan you talk to. And even a below-average 3-point shooting stroke won't change that. Still, 2025-26 feels like a big year for Franz to prove that he can still be, at least, an average shooter from outside. Those few percentage points could be what ultimately adds the word "super" as a prefix for Wagner's "star."