The Orlando Magic season has not gone according to plan.
Just five games into the season, the team dealt with Paolo Banchero's injury, which kept him out for two months. However, that only catalyzed Franz Wagner to emerge and make his case for stardom.
But then Wagner got hurt, tearing his right oblique too. Then Moe Wagner tore his ACL. Jalen Suggs strained his back. Illness ripped through the team. Goga Bitadze got a concussion.
The Magic have dealt with loads of injuries throughout the season.
Yet, everyone remains astonished with where the Magic sit. Orlando might be sitting near .500 after the losing streak that started after Orlando crossed the season's midpoint. But the team finishing the first half of the season at 23-18 was a minor miracle considering all the team was missing.
The Magic still found themselves competing for all of their goals as they slowly started to bring players back from injury. Things have gone south to start the second quarter of the season. The Magic are not out of the race, but they started to look like the team everyone feared they would be with their injuries.
Orlando finds itself with ground to make up. But the Magic still find themselves in the fight.
The third quarter of the season—the next 20 games—will determine where the Magic ultimately end up. They have a six-game road trip (five games on the West Coast) and then play 10 of their next 11 games at the Kia Center. By the time early March rolls around, they will know exactly where they stand and who they are fighting as they make the sprint to the end of the season.
They still have many key questions to answer in the next 20 games. What happens in the next two months will likely determine not only the outcome of the Magic's 2025 season, but also the direction the team takes in the offseason.
5. What do the Orlando Magic look like when healthy?
This has been the ultimate question for the Orlando Magic throughout the season.
When Jalen Suggs rejoined the lineup after his low back strain in Saturday's win over the Detroit Pistons, it marked the first time the team had its opening night starting lineup since Oct. 30.
They still did not have Goga Bitadze, their likely starting center, available as he recovered from the concussion protocol.
It is an accomplishment that the Magic find themselves above .500 and in the playoff race considering all they lost to injury. It brightened hopes that the foundations this team is built on are strong. But it clouds the picture because the Magic do not know how good they can be.
In the first half of the season, the Magic had a 108.5 offensive rating and a 106.7 defensive rating. They were among the elite teams on defense but were again in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating. The offense remained an issue.
But when Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner shared the floor, the Magic had a 114.2 offensive rating and a 105.9 defensive rating (+8.3 net rating) in a scant 119 minutes. The combination of Banchero and Suggs had a 109.2 offensive rating and 105.6 defensive rating (+3.6 net rating) in 127 minutes. And the combination of Wagner and Suggs had a 111.1 offensive rating and 106.3 defensive rating (+4.9 net rating) in 511 minutes.
The trio of Banchero, Suggs and Wagner had a 109.9 offensive rating and 106.5 defensive rating (+3.4 net rating) in 85 minutes.
These are all samples that are too small to say anything conclusive about. But that is the point. The Magic have no idea how good they could be.
In Saturday's game, the trio of Banchero, Wagner and Suggs outscored the Pistons 27-17 in 12 minutes together, boosted immensely by the 20-6 run they had in the fourth quarter. Again, there is a ton of potential there but nothing proven.
That is what the Magic have to see.
4. Are the Orlando Magic ready for the next level?
The Orlando Magic are still recovering from their injuries that have dropped them into sixth and seventh in the Eastern Conference. They have ground to make up on the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers to get back into the 4/5 conversation.
The Magic though should feel confident that as they get healthy they will make the playoffs and be at least the 6-seed.
But that is not where they want to be. They spent most of the first half of the season sitting in third or fourth in the Eastern Conference. They are still considered one of the best up-and-coming teams in the Eastern Conference.
But nobody considers the Magic contenders to win the title. That is where the Magic have to get.
Some of that will come from the trade deadline.
Will the Magic make a deal to add some offense and consolidate depth to help the Magic get over the hump? Would they move some players to add a dynamic offensive player like Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons or Cam Johnson? Is this the time to push those chips in to improve the team this season?
It feels like the Magic are due for a move to bolster their depth whether it comes at the deadline or in the offseason. Orlando needs something external to break into the contending tier.
Some of that will also come from the Magic winning big games.
Entering Monday's game against the Miami Heat, the Orlando Magic are 11-18 against teams with records above .500, a win total that beats only the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls among postseason teams.
Orlando is also 0-5 on national TV games and only their NBA Cup quarterfinal loss to the Milwaukee Bucks was particularly close. There is a distinct not ready for primetime feel about them.
The Magic have just one more game on national TV—Feb. 23 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have the third-easiest remaining schedule by opponent win percentage. So there may not be as many opportunities to make a big national statement.
Even a strong run to the end of the season probably will not put them in a title contender status. The Magic are focused on reclaiming the spot these injuries have cost them. But Orlando has to put themselves in a position to advance out of the first round and reach the next level for this team.
3. Can the Orlando Magic hit a shot?
The most frustrating aspect of the Orlando Magic so far is their 3-point shooting. They shot 30.8 percent from three in the first half of the season and have dropped to 30.5 percent with the five-game losing streak.
Of course, the Orlando Magic's 15-for-33 showing in Saturday's win over the Detroit Pistons was the first time the team shot better than 30 percent from three in seven games—let alone the first time shooting better than 40 percent from three in 11 games.
The shooting is frustrating. Even the Magic's "good" shooters have struggled this year.
And there really is no explanation. But even bad shooting luck is not a satisfactory explanation considering the Magic are posting the second-worst 3-point field goal percentage in franchise history and the worst 3-point shooting season since the 2012, seven-win Charlotte Bobcats.
Coach Jamahl Mosley has continued to preach that the team is getting the right shots. He wants the team to keep moving the ball for open shots and having the confidence to take those shots.
But there is no getting around that they are not going in.
Orlando ended the first half of the season taking 20.2 wide-open three-point attempts per game (when the closest defender is six or more feet away). That was ninth in the league. They were last in percentage at 33.3 percent.
How much of this is defenses willing to let the team shoot? That is a fair question to ask. But Orlando is searching for answers to the 3-point shooting.
Part of the problem of trying to get into the contending tier in the Eastern Conference is about the ability to make shots. That will be something that holds them back in the playoffs.
The 3-point shooting remains an intractable problem. But getting healthy and returning players to more familiar roles will likely lead to some modest improvements.
2. Which struggling player will find their rhythm?
Part of the issue with the shooting is that a lot of quality players and shooters are vastly underperforming. The hope is that health gets players back into comfortable roles and the Orlando Magic will see some players turn for the better.
No player has underperformed from three quite like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He is shooting 31.2 percent from three this season (including the last six games since the team passed the midpoint). It is the second-worst 3-point shooting season of his career.
There are two signs of hope though.
Caldwell-Pope is shooting a career-best 59.2 percent on 2-point field goals (maybe some comfort maybe not) and he is shooting 34.0 percent from three in his last 10 games. There is still work to do.
But he is not alone in seemingly out-of-nowhere struggles that have persisted.
Wendell Carter is shooting 18.8 percent from three. Jonathan Isaac is shooting 25.7 percent form three. Jalen Suggs dropped to 31.4 percent. Cole Anthony is at 30.9 percent.
They are all better shooters than those percentages. And so much of the struggles now are about confidence than anything else.
Jalen Suggs should improve getting more spot-up opportunities with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner back in the lineup. But Orlando has had a lot of players underperform from three. Most of their players have, in fact.
At some point, it is going to break. Thet eam at least has some confidence that it one day will.
1. Will the Magic keep feasting on the dregs of the league and at home?
Where the Orlando Magic struggle a bit against quality opponents and are looking for marquee wins that cement their place at the top of the standings, they are experts at loading up their schedule with wins over the worst teams in the league. And they are one of the best teams at protecting their home floor.
Orlando this year is 15-9 at the Kia Center. Only two other teams in the Eastern Conference have a better home record. The Magic's 15 home wins are seventh in the league overall.
The Magic have a 108.7/105.8 offensive/defensive rating split. They are a force at home and stacking up home wins is a big part of the formula.
The Magic are about to embark on a six-game road trip—one in Miami on Monday and then a five-game Western swing. They then play 10 of their next 11 games at the Kia Center. They are essentially home until the beginning of March.
For Orlando to climb back into the playoff picture, the team has to keep protecting home.
The Orlando Magic also have to continue beating the bad teams in the league—an opportunity they gave up with losses to the Toronto Raptors and Portland Trail Blazers this week.
The Magic are still 13-5 against teams with records below .500. The Magic have the third easiest schedule in the league by opponent win percentage. There are still a lot of opportunities for the Magic to pick up wins. And they have to keep dominating these games.
That is what hurt about the losses earlier this week. But slip-ups happen. Every team goes through some major rough spots. Orlando is coming out of its rough spot (hopefully).
The Magic at the very least have a formula and an ethos that will stack enough wins to make them a team that makes the playoffs. It is more about the next step that leaves plenty of questions.