The draft process is continuing in secret for the Orlando Magic.
Yes, a few players have let slip they have worked out in Orlando through social media posts — Michigan guard Jett Howard was reportedly in town earlier this week. But the Magic once again are doing their draft work in secret.
That only leaves us the speculation of what the Magic are doing.
At this point, Orlando fans should know that Jeff Weltman is going to go through his process independent of what anyone is saying outside of his organization. Even if there is a lot of anticipation over what the Magic will do with their two picks.
That anticipation is growing as everyone starts to speculate if the Magic would make a trade up in the draft or a trade to add to their growing bevy of young talent.
Thinking about trades will come in the very near future (I have a few ideas, although none of them are as exciting as what some of the aggregators are coming up with). That might be the focus of our next mock draft.
For now, this update to our Mock Draft 2.0 is more about resetting our thinking and what we consider in making the picks.
The first run-through after the draft order was set put a lot of focus on team needs above everything else. That could lead to some odd results — especially for a team like the Magic.
Orlando is in an interesting position not merely for its trade potential. The team is in an interesting position because the team is both trying to advance up the Eastern Conference standings and put itself in a position to make the playoffs while also still adding talent to a young and developing team.
It is still not clear how serious the Magic’s front office is to committing to next year’s team over the future. While players are talking about next year as playoffs or bust, the front office may be seeing this as one more chance to add elite talent at the top of the draft.
And that is something they cannot pass up. Even if it means an imperfect fit. This is still a developing team and talent has to mean something.
So our Mock Draft 2.0 needs a bit of an adjustment then. Where so much of my focus in the last mock draft was on need, I want to re-evaluate it and make adjustments to take more account for talent above need to see how things play out. This mock draft also takes into account recent reporting and information from around the league.
Do not worry, there will be a fresh big board coming later this week.
2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.3
The Top Picks
Victor Wembanyama continues to impress as he leads Mets 92 through the Ligue A playoffs. They are in the semifinals right now and he is averaging 18.2 points per game, 10.7 rebounds per game and 2.2 blocks per game. His team is up 2-1 in their semifinal series with LDLC Asvel after sweeping Cholet in the first round.
Wembanyama is that guy and a dynamic big man — the true definition of a unicorn. There is no debate about the first pick and there is little that will change this.
Especially after watching what Nikola Jokic has done, versatile and playmaking big men are more valuable than ever.
In my original mock draft, I had Brandon Miller as this second pick because of his fit around the Charlotte Hornets’ current core of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward.
The Hornets are a not a team that is so far out of the postseason and so a move for fit made some sense — especially since so much of last season was about LaMelo Ball’s injury and the rightful absence of Miles Bridges from the lineup.
But even I acknowledged that Henderson is the likely pick. And while I have fit concerns with two guards who are spotty outside shooters. The talent from Henderson is undeniable.
Having two big playmakers at guard is something the Hornets should not be afraid of at this point. Especially with the calls for versatility in this league. Henderson is capable of creating his shot off the dribble. And his growth potential is something the Hornets probably cannot pass up this high in the draft.
The Portland Trail Blazers are probably the only team this high in the draft who are thinking about drafting for need over everything else considering the urgency they have to be competitive with Damian Lillard on the roster. The Blazers, in other words, are not looking to rebuild and be back in this position.
Brandon Miller is their absolute ideal prospect to take. He has skills that will fit in the roster as currently constructed. He can spread the floor as a 3-point shooter and he can grow into a better defender. He also has the ability to be a higher-level player and improve as he gains experience.
There are a lot of teams that talk about running on two tracks with young players capable of replacing older ones. The Blazers may still need a bit more to get a seamless handoff, but having Brandon Miller and Anfernee Simons as a foundation for the post-Damian Lillard era will be a big boost for this Blazers franchise.
Amen Thompson is still a player everyone is trying to get a handle on. But his talent is still undeniable even within the context of playing in OTE last year. Thompson does pop off the page and he looks like he has all the skills needed to succeed at the NBA level once he gets up to speed.
Thompson’s talent stands out. He is an aggressive driver who can finish through contact and with athleticism. He is a great playmaker, especially in transition and can play at speed. Yes, his jumper needs lots of work. But the rest of the skills are there for him. Again, assuming it can scale up.
The Houston Rockets will likely have one more trip to the deep Lottery, but they need natural point guards and playmakers to get the most of their young players. A group of Amen Thompson, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith is a dangerous young core.
And that does not even get to the possibility that they could sign James Harden in free agency.
The Orlando Magic are probably going to be watching what the Detroit Pistons do most closely. Because their last bite at the apple might depend on what the Pistons do in picking between Ausar Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jarace Walker.
The Pistons still need top-end talent. They have two strong guards in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey after their solid rookie seasons (Cunningham missed most of last season). And so while the fit would suggest they go for a more proven shooter and driver in Whitmore, the talent says they should take Thompson.
Ausar Thompson is a dynamic driver and defender. While he still has a lot of rough edges to pare down with his game, particularly on offense, the upside with him is as a much more dynamic scorer and attacker should be where teams head.
At the very least, Thompson projects as a solid defender that will add something important to this Pistons team.
2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.3
The Orlando Magic’s Pick
What the Orlando Magic should do is really that battle between picking a player with upside and maybe some fit questions or settling for fit at the expense of talent.
That might be a poor framing of the debate with the Magic.
Instead, it perhaps should be about using this draft as a last chance to add high-end talent to the roster before they start competing. Or to use this draft pick as the home run swing while taking a safer pick that fits a need with the No. 11 pick.
At this point with how the draft shakes out, it would seem this is the likely path the team takes rather than taking a bigger swing at No. 11. There are players who could be dynamic scorers and add to the team.
And this is where the biggest change in this mock draft takes place. I passed on Ausar Thompson the first time around in favor of Taylor Hendricks, recognizing Hendricks gives the team some shooting and rim protection with defensive versatility. But Hendricks is a limited player in some respects. He does not project to be a star.
The reality is the Magic probably should be seeking out a player with star potential. They do not need that player to be a star, but they should be thinking about a player who can do more than fill out a narrow role.
Ausar Thompson is the ultimate home run swing for the Magic if he drops to six.
He is still an unknown bundle of potential who can play a role at the very least a defender and slasher with the talent and athleticism to become something greater and slot in comfortably at shooting guard. He has that wingspan the Magic like too — 6-foot-5.75 without shoes with a 7-foot wingspan.
He is gone in this mock draft scenario. And so really the only guy left to take that fits that criteria is Cam Whitmore.
Do not make that sound like the Magic are “settling” for Whitmore. Whitmore had a weird up-and-down season as he dealt with a wrist injury for a good chunk of it. His shooting percentages suffered for it.
But he is a big guy — 6-foot-5.75 with a 6-foot-8.5 wingspan and coming in at 235 pounds. He knows how to use his physicality to pinball around the paint. On top of this he has really good athleticism for a player of his size — his 40.5-inch max vertical leap was the fourth-best in the Combine’s measurements.
Whitmore was on the ball a lot and was dealing with a wrist injury throughout the season. So his shooting numbers do not look great — 34.3 percent from deep and just 70.3 percent from foul line. But he was an effective spot-up shooter — 1.11 points per possession on spot-up opportunities — when he did get the opportunity.
However, Whitmore was not much of a generator of scoring opportunities for others despite his driving ability. He had a 6.4 percent assist rate and averaged only 0.7 assists per game.
There are a lot of questions Whitmore will need to answer. And fitting him in with a different environment may help answer some of those questions. Especially where he is not a star.
His upside though is greater than anyone else in the draft. And if the goal is to get someone who can play a role with some upside to grow, Whitmore is probably the option.
2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.3
The Other Options
Anthony Black is another high-upside prospect whom the Orlando Magic should be considering for their pick. His lack of shooting at the guard spot and the seeming investment in Markelle Fultz will keep him from being a viable option for the Magic, unless the team really believes in his on-ball skills that much.
Black is the best perimeter defensive prospect in this draft though. He is already good at getting into players and making their lives difficult. And that is something that always translates quickly, especially to young teams like the Indiana Pacers and the Orlando Magic who are eager to climb the Eastern Conference standings quickly.
Black feels like a really good fit with this Pacers team too. They need a good defender to ease the pressure off Tyrese Haliburton and have the ball out of his hands more too to take advantage of his shooting.
Jarace Walker is the toughest player for me to judge in this draft. I love how he just makes everything work with his screening and rebounding.
If the Washington Wizards are determined to run everything back after last season’s disappointment — keeping Kristaps Porzingis and re-signing Kyle Kuzma — then Jarace Walker seems like the perfect glue to hold everything together and give the team a grinder and defender on the block.
Walker is a really smart player. But his lack of shooting is going to limit what he can do and which teams he can be effective for (read: I like him a lot but I do not like him for the Orlando Magic).
One of the few picks I am not changing in this version of the mock draft — I really did care too much about team fit. But Cason Wallace is a really solid player with good defensive instincts and size and a strong ability to get downhill toward the basket.
He still needs to refine several parts of his game and improve his shooting. But Wallace has all the attributes to be a solid point guard.
In our original Mock Draft 2.0, I had the Orlando Magic taking Taylor Hendricks at No. 6. That is a testament to how closely evaluated all the players in this tier of prospects are, how little I had reviewed Ausar Thompson at that point and how much emphasis I put on need in that first mock draft.
Hendricks has good foot speed to cover the perimeter just as he has the size to work in the paint. He can stretch out to the 3-point line (or should be able to) and hit jumpers from the perimeter just as he can fly to the rim and score above the basket.
Hendricks would be a great fit for a lot of teams because of this versatility. And it is why that if the Magic really want to take a player like Hendricks, a trade down from six to this area would be the optimal path to get him.
Hendricks’ problem is he does not project to be a star. He will be a solid role player. So if the emphasis for the Magic is on talent, they need to maximize the sixth pick if they just want to load up on role players.
2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.3
Orlando Magic’s Second Pick
Let me make my big controversial take now before I get to my reset Big Board next week: I think Jordan Hawkins is the pick over Gradey Dick.
The consensus seems to be that Dick is the best shooter in this draft. And as a spot-up option, it is hard to disagree. He has all the looks and skills of the best shooters in the NBA. He seems like he will step right into the league and be a knockdown shooter.
The problem with Dick, and that even his supporters have to recognize some pushback, is that there is not really a whole lot more he is going to be able to do. Shooting is very valuable in this league and the Magic desperately need shooting to succeed and make their next steps.
It is not a bad pick to take Dick.
But this mock draft is focused on potential over fit and need. This mock draft is looking at the whole player. And the more I study Hawkins, the more I think he is the guy to take over Dick because of everything he does in addition to his shooting.
Dick is a smart player, do not get me wrong. He will be able to defend within the team concept very well. But teams will attack him defensively. His shooting will be elite but that will be all he can do.
Hawkins is also an elite shooter — he made 38.8 percent of his 7.6 3-point attempts per game and 88.7 percent from the line (87.2 percent from the line across two seasons).
More than that, the variety of his 3-point shots was impressive. He hits stand-still shots effectively. He can hit step backs and sidestep threes well. His best 3-pointers came off pin downs and moving off screens. This vareity matters as you move to an NBA roster.
Hawkins still has to improve as a scorer off drives and finishing around the basket. But he at least shows he can add that part to his game. He will not just be exclusively a 3-point shooter. That versatility should matter, especially to a team like the Magic.
I am really high on Hawkins and I am personally pretty locked in on him at No. 11.
2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 2.3
The Rest of the First Round
Kobe Bufkin is going to be the riser in this mock draft and he will continue to rise. He does a lot of things that do not show up on the box score. So his meager stats do not paint his whole picture. He may not be a natural point guard and playmaker but he should slot in with an established team and help faciliate and help a team grow and improve.
This mock draft has probably overcorrected to focus on talent and upside over need and skill. So Gradey Dick is probably lower here then he will actually go. That is why we run through these mock drafts multiple times. Dick is one of the best shooters in this draft and will thrill any playoff team to get him to boost their hopes.
Dereck Lively has been the biggest riser in the draft process of late as he shows off a surprising shooting ability in his agent workouts and as he makes his way around the league. With few center options in this Draft, Lively definitely stands out. And he was certainly held back at Duke too.
There are reports that Bilal Coulibaly has a promise to go in the Lottery and he has played largely in the shadow of his teammate Victor Wembanyama. But Coulibaly is a great athlete in his own right and will be worth some development as he enters the NBA.
If we are going to talk strictly upside and talent, Nick Smith Jr. deserves to be a lot higher in this kind of a mock draft. The knee injury really sapped his athleticism this past year. But he is a dynamic scorer and rim attacker. Someone to keep an eye on as a sleeper on the outskirts of the Lottery.
Keyonte George is certainly talented and could be a player who at times plays above his role as a fill-in starter. His shooting will be the big attraction. Especially as he moves off the ball and takes higher efficiency 3-point shots.
The Miami Heat just love solid players. And no player is more overall solid than Jalen Hood-Schofino. Hood-Schofino will get in and defend and do a bit of everything. If his shooting comes around, he could be a solid steal in this draft.
Leonard Miller is the other player coming from the G-League Ignite this season. He is a high-level forward prospect who rebounds and defends. While his skill set is not strong, he will do the little things winning teams need and he will keep getting better.
A lot of Orlando Magic fans love the idea of Jett Howard because he is such a good shooter. And for sure, he will fill in quickly for whatever team drafts him and fire away from deep. But he has to round out the rest of his game, especially his attention to detail on defense to expand his role and stay in the game.
Dariq Whitehead is the big mystery of this draft. He was one of the top prospects in his high school class but a foot injury slowed him down at Duke. And he is out of this draft process because of that foot injury. Whitehead is immensely talented. Someone will take the risk.
Brandon Miller was the finesse and scoring for Alabama, Noah Clowney was the one doing all the dirty work. Every team needs a guy like Clowney who defends and rebounds. He is a bit undersized to play center and his success may depend on how he expand shis offensive game.
Kris Murray is very much like his twin brother Keegan Murray. He is an ace shooter who will get hot in a hurry. It would not surprise me to see him continue to climb draft boards. Even if he does not have the same athleticism or driving ability as the Sacramento Kings rookie.
James Nnaji plays sparingly for his team in Spain, as young players often do with European clubs. Nnaji is a good athlete and can play around the basket. There is a lot of untapped potential in him.
Brice Sensabaugh is a scorer. And he should be able to do taht at the NBA level. He can get in the lane and take contact. But his future will depend on whether he can defend at a higher level. That is why he is at the end of the first round instead of a surefire Lottery pick.
G.G. Jackson is the biggest energy player in this draft. He is going to get after it and score off putbacks and defend. His overall basketball skills are still fairly raw overall.
Tristan Vukcevic is going to be the next 7-foot shooter that everyone ogles over, even if he will still need some time to get to NBA speed.
Rayan Rupert is this year’s physical marvel. He has the size and length that a lot of teams like. But the raw skills and learning how to use that length into athleticism are the problems with him.
This is supposed to be a mock draft about potential. But you have to give some love to the upperclassmen. Marcus Sasser was a great defender in college and should step in and help immediately on that end. He is just a smart player.
Colby Jones had a breakout season for Xavier last year. He can score and led the team as their point guard. At the NBA level, he will be less on the ball so his shooting will need to improve. But his defense will go a long way.
Later this week, we will update our Big Board and think about the Orlando Magic’s needs specifically once again.