The NBA Draft Lottery is a week old. The teams have had a little more than a week now to live with the results and set the parameters of their Draft hunt and search.
The Lottery order went largely as expected. There were no changes to the draft order until the Portland Trail Blazers kicked the Detroit Pistons out of the top four by jumping to No. 3. And so this draft with a generational talent and some very good players trailing behind him is set.
Well, the order is set. Who goes where is certainly not set. The intrigue of the draft is just beginning as these prospects begin to fan out across the country and do their interviews and workouts.
The Orlando Magic are sitting in a strong position. They suspected they would even without the benefit of Lottery luck.
The Orlando Magic are preparing for a busy NBA Draft season. They will have two picks in the Lottery and a lot of intrigue with what they will do as they look to add to their roster.
Orlando stood pat after the Lottery, landing the sixth and 11th picks in the Draft. Still, two Lottery picks offer a lot of power for the Magic. They always do. And there are a lot of possibilities for this team.
As always, the Magic will have to prepare for every phase of the Draft with the opportunity both to move up and down but also to move out and add veterans to their team.
Orlando indeed has a lot of wins. The Magic’s players are making it clear they believe this is a “Playoffs or Bust” season for them. They are eager to take steps forward. So the Magic have some work to do to fill out the roster.
Draft night will play a big role in this. The team’s desperate need for shooting hangs over everything this team does. And so the team will enter this peculiar, promising and, at times, risky draft with a lot to consider and a lot to do.
The Magic certainly are evaluating a lot of players based on their wants and needs. But ultimately, who is available will depend on how the draft ultimately shakes out.
We have already done our Big Board for after the Draft Combine as we thought about the Magic’s specific needs. But now it is time to update our Mock Draft with the final draft order in place.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
The Top 3
There is no reason to complicate this with some big explanation. Victor Wembanyama is the prize of this draft. Everyone would have taken him regardless of fit. He is just that good. Just watch his highlights from the French league especially now that they are in the playoffs (his games are available on the NBA app, in a brilliant move for marketing the league’s future star).
There is no debating this pick. Seven-foot-5 big men who dribble, shoot and defend do not exist except for him.
Most mock drafts right now are slotting Scoot Henderson in as the second pick. And that may be what the Charlotte Hornets actually do with this pick — stay tuned for Mock Draft 3.0 a little closer to the Draft. We will get to Henderson in a minute.
But I look at this Charlotte Hornets roster and I think the Hornets still believe they are on the cusp of the Play-In Tournament. They did make the postseason, after all, the last two seasons before injuries to LaMelo Ball derailed this season.
The Hornets still have plenty of offensive firepower with LaMelo Ball leading the charge alongside Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward. The big thing missing was from the forward position where the team rightfully kept Miles Bridges out after he was charged with sexual assault. But Charlotte had no avenue to replace him after his strong on-court season in 2022.
This is a pick that will be about the Hornets’ goals. Are they looking for a bigger rebuild project? Do they have concerns about the fit between Ball and Henderson? Or do they fill in a player who fits what they need to return to contention (however limited that might be)?
This is unfair to Miller because he is a really good player in his own right. He is able to defend multiple positions on the perimeter and he is an excellent 3-point shooter for his size.
Then again, he also has his off-court conduct questions to answer for a Hornets franchise in major flux with an impending sale.
The Portland Trail Blazers are in the weirdest spot in this Draft.
They could use their third overall pick as a jumpstart to a rebuild, moving off Damian Lillard and resetting a franchise that has seemingly hit its dead end. Or they could use the third pick to try to retool around Lillard, looking to trade out of the Draft for veteran players and perhaps some cap relief.
Or they could try to run both tracks and draft a rookie here who can play a role and grow into a star as Lillard ages while also making other moves to bolster their frontcourt.
In this scenario, Brandon Miller is the absolute perfect player. He can fit in and play a role and grow next to Lillard without requiring the ball. In this scenario, Henderson is the absolute worst pick.
Henderson is a dynamic guard but he will need the ball in his hands to reach his peak. And the Blazers are not giving that to him.
This would make it easy for the Blazers to try to make a trade. And someone would be in line to get an elite future ball-handler and scorer in Henderson.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
Prelude to the Magic
The Thompson twins are the two biggest risks in this draft.
Their talent is clearly immense. Both are great athletes and big for their position. They both project as solid defender. But their two years in the new Overtime Elite league leave a lot of questions because it is so unproven and the level of competition is seemingly subpar.
Still, there is no denying talent. And Amen Thompson is certainly extremely talented.
He has point guard skills and should be able to weave his way through the paint with speed — he is often compared to Derrick Rose — and find players on the perimeter. That would make him a great pair with Jalen Green especially at his size and with the Houston Rockets’ point guard needs.
While the Rockets seem a bit wayward with their development — and the seemingly impending acquisition of James Harden may change what the Rockets focus on for this draft — this is a situation where Amen Thompson would get the chance to make mistakes and play with few restrictions.
Maybe that was a bad thing with some older players like Kevin Porter who were shoehorned into playing point guard. But young players need some freedom to play.
The Detroit Pistons’ plan to try and leap into the postseason last year got derailed. Cade Cunningham’s early season injury that caused him to miss most of the year dropped the Pistons like a rock. And they found out they were still pretty far off.
Detroit has collected plenty of young centers to see what they have. They have their point guard in Cade Cunningham and a secondary ball-handler in Jaden Ivey to use as building blocks. Cam Whitmore seems like the perfect fit for this group.
At Villanova, he showed signs he could be a great catch-and-shoot and spot-up 3-point shooter. His upside is what sinches him with a team like the Pistons, who just needs scorers and to keep the ball moving.
There are plenty of questions about Whitmore and how much of what he did at Villanova will translate — I personally have concerns about his shooting translating. But in the right atmosphere with two ball-handlers to help set him up could put him in a good spot to succeed.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
The Magic’s First Pick
The Orlando Magic are going to face a very clear dilemma with their draft pick at No. 6. If the draft falls this way or if Jarace Walker jumps into the top five, the Magic will wrestle with the biggest debate in any draft.
Do you draft talent and figure out the fit later? Or do you draft fit and potentially pass on star-level talent?
Especially at this layer of the draft, taking the best player and the best potential star on the board is usually advisable. These teams usually need star players.
But Orlando does not need to take a big cut and get a home run swing with this pick. They do not need the risk of striking out either. They need to get a player that will help them this year make the playoffs and could grow into something more.
The Magic have their star established in Paolo Banchero with strong building blocks around him in Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter. What is, as president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman puts it, the path to play for a rookie? Especially one who does not have an NBA-ready skill.
This is why I think Taylor Hendricks is the pick in this situation. He is someone who still clearly has room to grow. But his versatility defensively — his ability to protect the rim along with his ability to switch onto the perimeter — and his 3-point shooting and above-the-rim play near the basket makes him a seamless fit for a Magic team that needs and targets all of those attributes.
Hendricks may never be a surefire starter or a star player, but he will help this team when they are ready to compete for the postseason — both this year and moving forward.
There is a good argument the Magic should not be afraid to swing big and go for another star — especially considering the Magic have a second pick in this Lottery to fill some other needs.
Ausar Thompson is tremendously talented and should at the least be a strong defender in the league. But the Magic have to be concerned with how he translates to the league and whether he can develop his shot further (his playoff run in Overtime Elite was encouraging).
Cam Whitmore is also a player with a higher upside as a driver. But his lack of skills beyond his own scoring ability would be a poor fit for a Magic team that is trying to win in the short term now too.
A year ago without Banchero, this pick goes completely differently. Now, the Magic do not need to get a star player with this pick. They need someone who can grow and fill a role.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
Other Options
The Indiana Pacers were a dynamic offensive team last year. They rallied behind Tyrese Haliburton with the shooting all around them. They need more drivers to help further set up their shooters and some defense.
That makes this a really good spot for Ausar Thompson. Yes, the Pacers would have a glut of young wings with Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin already on the roster. But they could use a point guard too or some ball-handling help for Haliburton.
Thompson is going to step into the league and be able to hold his own defensively. He may have some rough edges to sand off. But his athleticism will fit in well with what the Pacers are building.
The Washington Wizards have their new man in charge in Michael Winger. They seem like they are poised to go through some major changes. But whether that bleeds down to the roster is the bigger question.
Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma are certainly enough to be competitive in the Eastern Conference. Are they enough to contend more seriously? That is a bigger question. They have dealt with inconsistency and health issues in their short time together.
Washington is probably not about to detonate anything. And so their answer is to find supporting players once again.
Anthony Black would be a good fit in Washington. He is a defensive ace and someone who will get after opponents on that end immediately. He should be able to find his way into the paint. But the key for Black will be whether he can hit from the outside and make jumpers consistently.
Cason Wallace appears to be the biggest riser in the early part of the Draft process. There is a long track record of Kentucky point guards outperforming their draft position. And Wallace seems to have that potential in him.
Wallace is a good defender and can get to the paint with some ability. His 3-point shot is developing but shows enough promise. Whether he makes it or not will depend on how he takes over point guard duties for whatever team he plays on.
The Utah Jazz are going to be major players at this year’s draft. They have three first-round picks. Considering how close they ended up being to the postseason, they may be more active with them to secure a higher draft pick or to consolidate some. However, it does not seem like Danny Ainge is interested in a quick fix as he tries to build a championship contender.
The Dallas Mavericks are going to be an interesting team to watch. They have their two stars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (and they are confident, at least, that they can re-sign Irving this offseason). But their role players let them down and, eventually, they were unable to make the postseason.
So where does Dallas go? The Mavericks are a team that might be ripe to try to trade out of the draft to get veteran players. But they could use an injection of positive youth.
And this pick should come down to Houston forward Jarace Walker and Kansas guard Gradey Dick. It is the debate between adding a player willing to do the dirty work or going after the shooter to space the floor.
That is not an easy debate to have for a team like the Mavericks. If they are keeping this pick, they could go in either direction.
For this mock draft, I think they stick with energy and stick with a player who does the dirty work. If the Mavericks are keeping Christian Wood especially, having a grinder who can rebound, set screens and sit in the dunker spot like Walker will go a long way. He is the kind of player who can help enhance readymade teams with his decision-making.
Walker plays the most like a veteran and that helps a team like Dallas.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
Magic’s Next Pick
The Orlando Magic should have one goal for draft night this year. Draft night will be a success if the Magic get (really) one of two players: Gradey Dick or Jordan Hawkins. But that is a bit reductive.
Simply put, whether it is by a trade or through the draft, the Magic need a shooter. They need to come away from draft night with a player they are confident can develop into an outside threat and floor spacer for their team moving forward.
And that is why Dick and Hawkins are the two big players to focus on, especially with the 11th pick. They are the two best shooters at the top of this draft. And they would seamlessly fit into the Magic’s offense and give them the shooting threat they just simply do not have.
Orlando finished last year 24th in 3-point field goal percentage at 34.6 percent for the season. The team, more alarmingly perhaps but also more understandably, finished 27th in 3-point attempts at 31.1 per game. The Magic need to generate more 3-point opportunities and some of that will come just from having the confidence of more shooters.
Separating both Dick and Hawkins is a bit more difficult than I think a lot of the draft pundits believe. The consensus is that Dick is the better player. He projects as a better shooting specialist and is a smarter player off the ball, especially on defense.
But it is splitting hairs between the two players.
The reason why Dick goes here (we had him sixth in our previous mock draft) is that Dick is going to be a shooting specialist. But that is about all he will be.
He does not project to have much upside to drive off the bounce. And while he is a willing defender, he is going to be someone opponents attack. Hawkins will have his defensive shortcomings too.
But if the Magic come away with one of these shooters on draft night, they will have had a successful evening.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
More Options
Leonard Miller is the other player from the G-League Ignite who is getting consideration in this year’s draft. And he is starting to climb a bit after a good showing at the NBA Draft Combine.
Miller finished his season averaging 18.0 points per game and 11.0 rebounds per game with shooting splits of 55.6/32.7/79.2. His shooting came along strong at the end of the season, where he made 7 of his final 12 3-point attempts for the season.
That is intriguing, to say the least.
Miller is the kind of player the Oklahoma City Thunder certainly like (I would put him on the Orlando Magic’s radar too) listed at 6-foot-10 (6-foot-9.25 without shoes) with a 7-foot-2 wingspan.
He is young and will need some time to catch up. But being in the Ignite program should set him up for success.
Shooting is at such a premium that it will not be surprising if the best shooters in this draft go out in quick order. Especially at this stage of the draft where teams are not looking to take big swings with their picks and need players to fit in quickly.
Certainly, once Gradey Dick goes off the board, teams that need shooting will scoop up Jordan Hawkins quickly.
Hawkins can shoot effectively off screens and in tight spaces. That will make him valuable to any team that grabs him, even if some of the other parts of his game still need to round into form.
Going to a veteran team like the Toronto Raptors would be a great fit for him. The Raptors are probably losing one if not both of Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent. But this franchise is not about to restart — even if some changes are in the works after their disappointing finish to the season.
Kobe Bufkin has been rising steadily in mock drafts over the last few weeks. Bufkin is a dynamic guard — a Michigan man, so keep him on your radars because even he is aware of how many Michigan players are on the Magic — who may not have much in the way of elite athleticism but mans the guard spot well.
He averaged 14.0 points per game with shooting splits of 48.2/35.5/84.9. That was a big boost from his freshman year where he played sparingly. He was one of the key players energizing Michigan throughout the year. And those shooting splits suggest his shooting will come.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
Outside the Lottery
Brandon Miller certainly got all the headlines for his play at Alabama in leading the Crimson Tide to the top seed in the NCAA Tournament. But Noah Clowney was the one who did all the dirty work for the team on the interior. And that is going to be something valuable for a team that drafts him.
Clowney averaged 9.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. His defense and rebounding will be keys to his success because his overall offensive game will need a lot of work.
Keyonte George has plenty of ability. He is one of the best shooters in this draft, showing an ability to hit off the dribble and pull up from deep. His role in college was to be Baylor’s main attacker. That will not be his role at the NBA level. Someone is going to get a shooter they can form, even if George’s stock has depressed significantly.
Jalen Hood-Schifino does not seem like he wows anyone with much. His averages — 13.5 points per game, 4.1 rebounds per game and 3.7 assists per game — are fairly pedestrian. But Hood-Schifino just does a lot of things well that will not show up in a stat sheet. Like so many prospects in this draft, his success will depend on his shooting development.
Nick Smith Jr. could be a star. He has that potential and that ability to get to and finish at the rim. He was a major athlete. But a knee injury slowed him down throughout his season with Arkansas. And now everyone is wondering about him whether his knee injury slowed him down or whether that is who he really is.
Kris Murray is not nearly as highly acclaimed as his brother, Sacramento Kings guard Keegan Murray. But a lot of their skills are shockingly similar. Kris Murray scored 20.2 points per game in his first real bit of playing time in his junior year last year. He shot 33.5 percent on 6.8 3-point attempts per game. There is definitely some shooting potential in there.
Victor Wembanyama has taken all the headlines from Mets 92. But keep an eye out for Bilal Coulibaly. The athletic forward averaged only 5.0 points per game as, per usual for European teams, his development largely happened behind the scenes in favor of more veteran players.
Coulibaly is a good athlete with solid hops and really good length. He looks like a teenager still and will have to grow into his body. But Coulibaly is a strong high-upside play for a young team.
Orlando Magic Daily 2023 NBA Mock Draft 2.0
The Rest of the First Round
Lake Highland Prep alum Brice Sensabaugh is an intriguing player. He is a scorer first and foremost and is able to hit shots off the dribble and use his size to get to the basket. The rest of his game is the question. He is not attentive defensively and his work off the ball is going to be the big question for him.
There are not a lot of centers available in this Draft. It is possible a team reaches on a center and gets Dereck Lively. His stats were a bit depressed playing alongside Kyle Filipowski. They were not a perfect fit together. Lively is a solid rim protector and someone who can defend the paint. He should be able to translate some to the NBA. Although he did not have an overall impressive year at Duke.
Jett Howard is one of the better shooters in this draft. He is a bit undersized but he runs off screens and hits his spot-ups well. Howard though does not have a lot else to his game. And there are some questions about his work ethic and how he fit in with the Michigan squad last year.
G.G. Jackson is one of the big mystery boxes of this draft. He is an athletic forward who plays with a ton of energy. He rebounds and flies to the basket. He just has very few defined NBA skills. He is not much of an offensive force — he tried to take over games at South Carolina to poor effect. A good culture and role are a must for his success.
James Nnaji is, like most young players in Europe, fighting for scraps in the rotation for an opportunity. There is a ton of talent and potential though with Nnaji. He is 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan which suggests he has all the defensive potential you would want. His offensive game is limited to putbacks though and he is still exceptionally raw as a prospect.
Marcus Sasser is not getting a lot of buzz perhaps because he is an older player. But there were not many better defenders in the nation at the collegiate level. Sasser should be able to get at it defensively, while his shooting will need continued development.
Dariq Whitehead entered the season as one of the top-10 prospects in the draft class. A really poor season at Duke, where he showed his athleticism but struggled to finish at the rim and where he was struggling with injuries, has caused him to draft. The talent is there though. The only problem is a foot injury will knock him out of all pre-draft workouts although he is likely to be ready for the season ahead.
Rayan Rupert is completely in the eye of the beholder. He measured impressively at the NBA Draft Combine — 6-foot-6 without shoes with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. But he also had one of the worth athletic showings in the entire Combine. Rupert is still underdeveloped as a player. But the physical attributes are hard to ignore.
Tristan Vukcevic is the international prospect starting to get a little buzz. He works well around the basket where he grabs rebounds effectively and he scores a lot, especially for a young player. He can play big on the interior but also step out and hit threes. It is just proving it at an NBA level that matters. In some of his bigger games in Euroleague, Vukcevic very much looked like the young player he is.
Colby Jones averaged 15.0 points per game and 4.4 assists per game last year at Xavier, continuing a solid rise for the young player. The Musketeers used him as their point guard and as a defensive stopper. He can be decent at that. A poor free throw shooting percentage will give pause despite an improvement from beyond the arc this year.
We will be back with an updated mock draft before the draft and as news happens. Plus we will plan another big board as we get closer to the Draft!