2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0: One book closes, another one opens

There was an interesting dichotomy present at the AdventHealth Training Center on Wednesday afternoon.

The Orlando Magic organizationally was taking a pause from their now 9-to-5 existence for the team to celebrate their Rookie of the Year in Paolo Banchero.

The year for the draft class of 2022 is pretty much officially closed now that Banchero has taken home the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy. And it is on to the next draft class.

Of course, things do not work sequentially like that. When asked about the potential of adding more young talent to the roster during the press conference with Paolo Banchero, president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said the team is already well at work in its 2023 draft preparations.

The Orlando Magic are already hard at work looking at their upcoming draft class and possibilities. We do our first run through the draft with our first mock draft.

In fact, he revealed they had just left a meeting discussing the draft with many of their scouts called in to start going over the prospects. The draft process never really ends. And it is about to hit overdrive.

Officially though, one book has closed and now another one is opening as the 2023 NBA Draft comes into greater focus.

Everyone will wait for the draft order to get finalized with the NBA Draft Lottery on May 16 — a short three weeks away. That will determine where the big prize in this year’s draft will go. Everyone is looking forward to Victor Wembanyama’s arrival.

Yes, even the Magic and this year’s Rookie of the Year:

The Lottery really is a Lottery this year. There will not be the same kind of intense debate that was the central story of last year’s draft and holding last year’s top pick. There will still be plenty to debate and plenty to get to from this draft.

The Magic are in a strong position once again. They have the sixth-best odds to win the Lottery — along with a 9.0 percent chance of winning the top pick and a 37.2 percent chance of landing in the top four (a better than one in three chance).

Additionally, the Orlando Magic will get the Chicago Bulls’ pick if they do not get into the top four thanks to the Nikola Vucevic trade. Chicago, sitting 11th in the Lottery standings, have just an 8.5-percent chance to land in the top four.

At this juncture in our draft preparation, we want simply to introduce the prospects some more and do a first straight mock draft without the effects of the Lottery. Doing this will give you an idea of the prospects the Magic could be looking at as they prepare for the final order.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

The Top Guys

While there is no debate on who the top guy in the NBA Draft will be, there is a clear top three tier. It is hard to imagine any player beneath this group breaking in and supplanting Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller. Even if a team does not need Miller (the Magic are one of those teams who would probably still draft Miller even though they are loaded with high-level forwards).

Talent always wins at the top of the draft. Nobody should turn down talent for the sake of fit. Lest you become the 2003 Detroit Pistons (they still did win a title, I guess).

Having said that, every team on Lottery night will probably have a No. 1 jersey with Wembanyama’s name on the back under their dais. He is the runaway top prospect in this draft. If you do not know why, the highlights should suffice:

There just are not many players at his size who have his fluidity and strength. He is a 7-footer capable of working off the dribble, hitting threes and beating slower defenders to the glass. And then defensively, he will still be a strong rebounder and interior defender.

This is one of those “five-tool” prospects and far and away the best prospect in this draft. You make your roster fit for him, in other words.

The Draft really begins with the second pick and the decision between Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller.

Henderson was the runaway second pick for much of the season, especially after an impressive showing early in the year in an exhibition against Victor Wembanyama and Mets.

Henderson is an explosive guard able to attack and score off the dribble while still having the point guard instincts to dish out and find teammates. He has a lot of explosiveness and athleticism to match his skill. Even if he still needs to improve his outside shooting.

That was probably the big concern. Playing for G-League Ignite (in his second year with Ignite, actually), Henderson showed some of that talent but still struggled overall. He was not efficient and injuries slowed him down throughout the season.

That opened the door for the discussion at No. 2. Henderson though to me is still the better player and certainly the player who is most set up for success. But where he goes might depend on team need as much as talent.

Scoot Henderson certainly opened the door for discussion at No. 2. But Brandon Miller is the one who walked through it with an incredible season that led Alabama to the top overall seed.

Miller is the kind of versatile forward the Orlando Magic tend to love. He is a 6-foot-9 forward with good size to take the physicality on the inside but the nimbleness to work on the perimeter. He is also a decent 3-point shooter at 38.4 percent and 85.9 percent from the foul line.

Miller can do a lot of the skills teams look for in these big forward, although he is not quite an elite star prospect. Miller is not going to be able to attack off the dribble consistently or get past his man.

Still, he will be a strong supporting player for whoever drafts him at the very least. And someone who can step in and fill gaps to score.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

The Thompson Twins

The questions about this draft class really begin after that top three. The difference between prospects in the No. 4 range deep into the Lottery are not that different. And more importantly, each one of these players have some real flaws that have to be taken under consideration.

This entire draft is going to be in the eye of the beholder. And teams will have to think about the kind of risks they are willing to take and stomach and what skills they want to emphasize. I think for a lot of these draft prospects, it is going to come down to the situation they are drafted to and the development plan those teams have.

There is probably no bigger risk/reward in this draft than the Thompson twins, Amen and Ausar. The duo played in Overtime Elite, a smaller pro league that was focused on giving high schoolers a different option for their development and growth.

A lot of scouts — and lay people — do not seem to know what to make of this league. I have heard people call it glorified pick-up basketball. So essentially both Amen and Ausar have gone a year without any real game tape.

Still, both players are supremely talented and extremely athletic. Their style is an all-out assault on the basket. They can get to the rim and finish.

I personally rank Ausar ahead of Amen because he has shown greater shooting potential. And especially for a team like the Charlotte Hornets who are set around LaMelo Ball, adding a running mate on the wing who can slash to the basket seems the more valuable pick.

This slide is labeled “The Thompson Twins” so we can get through the big thing about the twins in general. A lot of mock drafts and big boards will likely keep the Thompson twins together at 4 and 5 (I would probably do that too on a big board).

But this is not a big board, this is a mock draft. And a team’s needs come into some consideration. And the Portland Trail Blazers are very set at guard — unless they are planning a reset that includes trading Damian Lillard, then they should probably consider Amen Thompson a steal running next to Anfernee Simons.

As things stand though, the Blazers should look elsewhere and find some scoring. And that is where Cam Whitmore comes in.

The Villanova forward is 6-foot-7 and plays with a level of toughness on his drives. He is not afraid to take a hit and finish at the rim. Whitmore is a great scorer — averaging 12.5 points per game for Villanova, but finishing with a solid 14.0 points per game and 53.4-percent shooting in his final six games.

The Wildcats did not make the NCAA Tournament (and Whitmore sat out their NIT game). That may be a knock on him. But he gives any team that acquires him a guy who is not afraid to mix it up and can score effectively.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

Orlando Magic’s first pick

The Orlando Magic holding two picks in this draft puts them in an interesting position. They can obviously do a ton of things with the two picks to move around and even out of the Draft. Orlando is clearly entering win-now mode and trying to build a team that can help them make the playoffs next year.

The Magic’s needs are still pretty simple.

They need shooting. A goal of mine for the Magic on draft night is to come away with a shooter one way or another — whether that is with a pick or via trade.

But they also need more depth. The biggest problem for a lot of the teams at the bottom of the standings is a general lack of depth and the reliability of their bench. That is why Orlando really struggled with injuries. When players went down, they seemed to get stretched thing with players they could not rely on.

Some of that is youth. Players just need more experience. So if there is a sense Orlando is not about to do anything crazy or remain fairly conservative this offseason, it is a recognition the team should get better.

So what would the Magic do at this spot?

Sometimes the answer is simple and should not be thought about too much. They should take care of their shooter and take the best shooter in the draft in Gradey Dick. Who cares if that is higher than the other mock drafts?

Dick scored 14.1 points per game last year for Kansas and shot 40.3 percent from beyond the arc on 5.7 attempts per game. He made 85.4 percent of his free throws.

This is by far the best shooter in the draft and someone who should step in and be able to hit from NBA range.

The reason why there might be a pause is that Dick really is just a shooter. He is probably not going to be able to attack off the dribble and his defense is going to need some work and some cover.

But if the Magic feel the shooting will translate, this is the time to go ahead and address this need. Shooters can fit anywhere and the Magic should feel confident in the defenders they have around him — they did finish sixth in defensive rating from Dec. 7 to the end of the season — to cover for him.

They need a volume 3-point shooter and constant threat and no player in this draft class looks like that quite like Dick.

Orlando certainly could wait. There are some solid shooters who should be available with the 11th pick. And the team has some needs at forward it could fill with a Jarace Walker or Taylor Hendricks.

But sometimes you just need to take care of your needs. And we all know how much shooting matters.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

Other Candidates

As noted above, it is hard to get a good read on the Thompson twins. But they are going to get their shot at the NBA and they clearly have NBA talent. That much still pops off the page even with the difficulty in evaluating the level of the league they are playing in.

A lot of people have Amen Thompson rated above his brother (I lean the other way because Ausar Thompson looks to have a bit more readymade skill as a shooter rather than just as a pure athlete). There is good reason for that. Amen Thompson is a blinding athlete who can get to the basket at will.

We will see if that translates to the next level. But pairing him with another strong runner and scorer in Tyrese Haliburton with a great screener like Myles Turner could really set him up for success.

The Washington Wizards are in a moment of transition. They have just fired their general manager and are looking for new basketball leadership. Kyle Kuzma is about to become a free agent after a stellar season. They put some things together with the tandem of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis. But Beal’s future is always in flux.

So what is Washington going to do?

That is one of the big questions of this offseason and perhaps on draft night. For now, thinking they stand still, adding some versatility seems to be in order.

Being able to mix and match players and play truly amorphously — especially so they can keep Porzingis around the basket to protect the rim.

Nobody probably does that as well as UCF’s Taylor Hendricks in this group of players.

Hendricks is a line-drive attacker, but he does well working the dunker spot to finish over defenders and he can step out and hit from the outside. He is also a very good shot blocker for his size, exhibiting good timing and athleticism to reach shots.

Hendricks still has tremendous upside to develop. Some NBA team is going to find a way to make him fit and make UCF fans proud.

Both guards at Arkansas — Anthony Black and Nick Smith Jr. — failed to live up to expectations for their season. But both are still clearly talented enough to make the NBA. And both can contribute to this league.

Black had the better season of the two. He is an ace defender and really athletic on the wing to get after his matchup.

Black’s biggest knock is his poor shooting. He was a low-30s 3-point shooter and shot only slightly better than 70 percent from the foul line. That is one of the reasons a player with his natural attributes and defensive ability is not likely to go higher.

The Dallas Mavericks are going to need a lot to get back to their peak and return to the Western Conference Finals contention. The way their season fell apart is something that is going to be written about and dissected all offseason.

They still have Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. And that is going to be enough to keep them in contention. They are only a few moves away.

So one thing they can do is fill a need with a very NBA-ready role player in Houston forward Jarace Walker.

Walker has started getting some comparisons as this draft’s Draymond Green. He is a bit undersized for a power forward, but he makes up for it with his defensive smarts. Walker will be able to fill in gaps and get to the basket while also being a threat as an extra screener.

For a team like the Mavericks, that is exactly what they need.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

No. 11 Pick

Again, the goal for the Orlando Magic coming out of this draft is to come away with shooting. They can fill in a lot of the things they need to complete their roster — certainly better wing depth, a backup center and generally more experience. There are also the skills they need — shooting (obviously), paint defense and

The Draft is going to be a part of the puzzle.

But at the end of the day, the Magic need to be thinking about their needs and adding more talent. Talent still wins. And the Magic run such a versatile system, that they can find a way to make everyone fit.

It is usually a good rule in the draft to pick the best player available. Teams can figure out fit. So long as there is, as Jeff Weltman puts it, a pathway to play.

With that in mind, just because there are a ton of shooters available at this level of the draft — our pick, Brice Sensabaugh, Baylor’s Keyonte George and UConn’s Jordan Hawkins — should not scare the Magic from taking a shooter with their first pick our doubling up here.

In this case, Orlando might be getting something a little bit more in taking hometown kid and Lake Highland Prep (Go Highlanders!) alum Brice Sensabaugh.

Sensabaugh was a Big Ten all-freshman player averaging 16.3 points per game and shooting 40.5 percent from deep on 4.5 3-point attempts per game. He made 83.0 percent of his free throws. That translates really well to a player who can shoot at the NBA level.

Sensabaugh is a stocky 6-foot-7. He has an NBA body and can work off the dribble to create shots for himself, including step-backs and pull-up threes. That is going to serve him well as he enters the NBA.

Sensabaugh works really well with his back to the basket too. He knows how to use his size to overpower smaller defenders on the block to create space.

He is not elite at anything which is why he would be available at this stage of the draft. But he could be someone who outperforms his draft position. And as the draft process continues to individual workouts, he could be someone who rises.

He would give the Magic another potential shooter and a scorer to bring off their bench and potentially start with plenty of physical potential to keep growing his skills and abilities.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

Other Options, Part 2

For a long time this season, Keyonte George was one of the favorites for the Orlando Magic with their first pick. He was a dynamic scorer with Baylor, able to hit pull-up threes and score with dynamism in the paint.

George though struggled as the main creator and everyone predicted he would shift to a more supporting role in the league. Still, his struggles to end the season led to a lot of questions about how he translates.

Going into an ecosystem with some already strong drivers and versatility is going to help free him up for his shot.

The Toronto Raptors are a team in some major flux as they look for a new coach and decide what to do with their future. With the team potentially losing Fred VanVleet, grabbing a big guard in Nick Smith Jr. is a good pick.

Smith can be a dynamic scorer and attacker. He has good size and shared point guard duties with Anthony Black. Smith’s knee injury slowed him down early in the season and kept him from reaching his full potential in his lone college season.

But Smith is very talented and a potential star scorer.

No player helped himself more in the NCAA Tournament than Jordan Hawkins. That is what winning the national championship will do.

But Hawkins generally played well. And while he is a bit older than his classmates in this draft class, that is an advantage for a team on the cusp of the postseason.

Hawkins is an excellent shooter and works well off the move. UConn is noted for running an NBA-style offense, and so the adjustment to the league may not be a huge one for him. He has good size and while his role may be limited to shooting, that is still very valuable.

The Atlanta Hawks are feeling a bit brighter now that they have a new coach in place and had a good showing in their first-round series loss to the Boston Celtics. The team could still take some changes and make some adjustments.

With questions about John Collins continuing to swirl, they should look to get some size somewhere. That is where South Carolina’s GG Jackson comes in.

Jackson has started to get more draft buzz as NBA people dive deeper into the class. Jackson averaged 15.4 points per game and 5.9 rebounds per game. He did this though while shooting worse than 40 percent from the floor overall.

Cason Wallace is one of the best finishers in this draft class. He is able to get to the basket and finish with gusto and artistry. That is what has him generating buzz that will probably have him going higher than I do in this mock draft — this is why I do a couple of these things.

Wallace did not have the most impressive stats. But that is the usual thing with Kentucky players. While the Wildcats are not the same at producing elite NBA prospects, Kentucky players often underperform what they will do in the league. Especially their guards.

Dereck Lively was one of the top prospects coming out of high school and seemed destined for a Lottery pick. A rough season at Duke had him dropping. But he started to come around as the season went on. He is a big body who can use his weight well and rebound. In a reserve role, he should be able to help a lot of teams as he continues to mature and grow.

The Miami Heat always know where to find good shooters who will work hard. While Jett Howard had a disappointing finish to the season and went up and down, he is a great shooter. Perhaps one of the best in this draft class. And it is hard to imagine he stays on the board long after the Lottery ends.

2023 Orlando Magic Daily Mock Draft 1.0

Rest of the First Round

We will be back with a fresh mock draft after the NBA Draft Lottery and a new Big Board before the NBA Draft Combine begins. We may also do some adjustments and variations of this mock draft as we imagine who the Magic would take at each pick.