The Orlando Magic’s season is starting to wind down. The team’s playoff hopes have dwindled some and the fans at least are starting to think a little bit about the Draft.
Every team is finalizing its draft book as the season wraps up. Every basketball fan is watching the NCAA Tournament. And a lot of players can certainly make their name.
The Orlando Magic will be finishing off their season but they will be watching the next rounds of the NCAA Tournament too as many of the prospects look to make one last statement.
This year is a bit different though. Many of the top prospects in this year’s draft are outside of the NCAA Tournament — from projected top pick Victor Wembanyama playing in France to top guard Scoot Henderson playing in the G-League to the Amen and Ausar Thompson playing for Overtime Elite.
On top of this, many top prospects were playing for college teams that did not make the Tournament. And many more faced elimination in the early rounds.
There may not be a complete breakthrough prospect like Paolo Banchero seemed to be in leading Duke to the Final Four. At this point, Alabama’s Brandon Miller is the only top prospect remaining. And even he struggled in his first NCAA Tournament games.
This is how you should view prospects. Playing well is important, but teams likely want to see how these players respond to pressure situations and whether they rise to the challenge. That will tell them a whole lot more and help separate them within their tiers — do not expect many heavy risers at this point with most of their playing file already completed.
That is something that a player like Baylor’s Keyonte George (16 total points on 3-for-19 shooting before the Bears bowed out in the second round) is not going to get that similar guards in Arkansas’ Nick Smith Jr. or Anthony Black could get from playing further on in this tournament.
Every game is a critical piece of information to add to the ledger. And these are high-profile games that are hard to miss. Even as NBA teams near the end of their season and critical points on the road to the postseason.
The Orlando Magic’s postseason hopes are dimming. They are still mathematically alive in the postseason chase, but they trail the Chicago Bulls by 4.5 games with nine games remaining. The Bulls are on pace to win 38-39 games, meaning the Magic need to go 8-1 or 9-0 the rest of the way to have a shot.
It is a long shot even if it is still mathematically possible.
But that means Orlando is likely heading back to the Lottery. And the team is in a good position once again.
In addition to holding the Bulls’ pick if it lands outside the top four (the Bulls are ninth in the Lottery standings, giving them a 20.3-percent chance of landing in the top four), the Magic sit in fifth in the Lottery standings. Orlando would have a 42.1-percent chance of landing in the top four and a 10.5-percent chance of landing the top pick for a second straight year.
The Orlando Magic are likely to stay in fifth, sitting seven games ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and two games behind the Washington Wizards.
So Orlando will once again likely be looking at the top prospects in this Draft.
With the NCAA Tournament resuming again tonight, here are five prospects to keep an eye on this weekend:
5 players to watch in the NCAA Tournament regional rounds
Brandon Miller, Alabama
First Round: 0 points, 5 rebounds, 0/5 FGs vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Second Round: 19 points, 7 rebounds, 5/17 FGs vs. Maryland
Regional Semifinals: Friday vs. San Diego State (6:30 p.m., TBS)
Brandon Miller has seen his star rise over the last few weeks as he completed a stellar season. Leading the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament is going to get him plenty of notice and attention. And that with Scoot Henderson struggling some in the G-League has Miller’s name even higher among draft prospects.
Miller has all the tools and skills NBA teams love. He is a versatile and big forward who can work off the dribble and step out from beyond the arc at times. Miller is a very good player.
This NCAA Tournament was his chance to set himself up as the clear No. 2 pick.
But that is not what happened during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Miller struggled to get going and he did not seem like he stepped up in the big moment. The rest of his team filled in and the two teams he faced are not going to challenge a team like Alabama.
Friday’s game against San Diego State is going to be a really good test for him.
The Aztecs are one of the best defensive teams remaining in the tournament. And they feature a lot of big forwards that fit the NBA mold.
They may not individually be as good as the players who Miller will see when he gets to the NBA. But they will be the body types and size he will face when he gets to the NBA.
Miller will have plenty of games to make a statement. And this matchup will be a big one for him.
5 players to watch in the NCAA Tournament regional rounds
Jarace Walker, Houston
First Round: 16 points, 6 rebounds vs. Northern Kentucky
Second Round: 7 points, 10 rebounds, 6 blocks vs. Auburn
Regional Semifinals: Friday vs. Miami (7:15 p.m., CBS)
The one thing Jarace Walker is very good at is his defense. And that is not going to show up naturally in a box score. He is a workhorse who gets to the ball and hounds players on the perimeter and on the block.
His six blocks against Auburn certainly stands out in a big way. That is just who he is. Scoring is a bonus for him. His impact is how he defends and chases after people.
Walker is a bit undersized at 6-foot-8 to play center. That could limit what he is able to do in the NBA. He will have to improve his ability to work on the perimeter. But there is always value in someone who is committed to the defensive end. That is how he has anchored a Houston team that has been No. 1 in the country for a good chunk of the season.
Walker is capable of big games. And he has shot well enough. But at this stage of the NCAA Tournament, do not expect to see that expansion to his game. He is going to be looking to work around the basket and defend at a high level.
Against a high-scoring Miami team, this will be a big test for him. How much of an impact will he have in slowing down Isaiah Wong?
That job may go to Marcus Sasser.
Sasser was dealing with an injury in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. That slowed him down a ton. But Houston may go as far as Sasser will take them.
Sasser is averaging 16.9 points per game. He is not much of a playmaker at 3.1 assists per game this year. But he is a good defender and has been the catalyst for Houston.
Sasser is rated No. 33 on ESPN’s Big Board. So he could be a consideration for the Orlando Magic if they want some point guard help with their second-round pick.
5 players to watch in the NCAA Tournament regional rounds
Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
First Round: 6 points, 2/10 FGs vs. Illinois
Second Round: 0 points, 0/4 FGs vs. Kansas
Anthony Black, Arkansas
First Round: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4/12 FGs vs. Illinois
Second Round: 4 points, 1/6 FGs vs. Kansas
Regional Semifinals: Thursday vs. UConn (7:15 p.m., CBS)
Arkansas is probably the team most NBA scouts are going to be watching this week with two potential NBA guards on their roster. And both of them struggled in the first two rounds despite advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.
Nick Smith Jr. is considered the better of the two prospects, but he played absolutely horribly in the first two games.
Injuries have been the story of Smith’s freshman year. And he is still likely working his way back from the knee injury that cost him most of the season. But he averaged 12.6 points per game on 37.3-percent shooting for the season. In the seven games heading into the NCAA Tournament, he averaged 18.1 points per game on a 46.6-percent effective field goal percentage.
Those were encouraging numbers that Smith was healthy again and starting to perk up heading into these pressure games.
Then the NCAA Tournament happened and he did not seem to hit those marks at all. He has lacked some of the explosiveness that had scouts excited for him before the injury. And he was just generally unimpressive. Even in a marquee game against Kansas.
His backcourt battery mate in Anthony Black did not fare much better offensively. For Black though, his attraction to the NBA is his defense. There he was pretty good. He still played 37 minutes in the win over Kansas in the second round and was a big part of the Razorbacks holding on for the win.
Everyone wants to see more from both Smith and Black moving forward. The winner of this UConn and Arkansas game might be the dark horse to win the whole thing.
The other player to watch out for in this big matchup is Ricky Council IV.
Council was the actual leading scorer for the Razorbacks, posting 16.1 points per game and scoring 21 points in the win over Kansas (and 39 points in the first two rounds.
Council is in this third year after transferring from Wichita State to Arkansas this year. So he is a bit older. ESPN has him 41st on their Big Board. So another big game in the NCAA Tournament could help him climb into the late first round or earlier in the second.
5 players to watch in the NCAA Tournament regional rounds
Jordan Hawkins, UConn
First Round: 13 points, 3/11 FGs, 3/7 3FGs vs. Iona
Second Round: 12 points, 4/6 FGs, 4/5 3FGs vs. Saint Mary’s
Regional Semifinals: Thursday vs. Arkansas (7:30 p.m., CBS)
We all know what the Orlando Magic need more than anything else. They need shooting.
And a lot of Magic fans have looked toward this draft class to try to find some shooters — and there definitely are some in Kansas Jayhawks forward Gradey Dick and Michigan forward Jett Howard among plenty of others.
UConn Huskies guard Jordan Hawkins is not considered among the top prospects in this draft. He is ranked No. 20 on ESPN’s big board. But he is also quietly one of the better shooters. And so far in this NCAA Tournament, his shooting has been a big part of UConn’s run.
Hawkins averaged 15.7 points per game this year, a big jump with more playing time in his sophomore season. He shot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc on 7.5 3-point attempts per game. That and the fact he made 88.4 percent from the foul line (his second straight season making more than 80 percent from the foul line) is a good indicator of his shooting potential.
Hawkins does all the things NBA teams want shooters to be able to do. He can come around screens just as easily as he can shoot the stand-still threes. That will make him valuable even if the rest of his offensive skills are more unrefined.
At 6-foot-5, he has decent length to guard other shooting guards and he should be able to translate into a solid 3-and-D option.
How he plays Thursday against Arkansas is going to go a long way to setting his draft stock. If he can break free from the Razorbacks’ trio of defensive-minded guards, he could easily play himself into the Lottery. especially if the Huskies do end up making the kind of NCAA tournament run so many believe they can.
5 players to watch in the NCAA Tournament regional rounds
Jaime Jaquez, UCLA
First Round: 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 steals vs. UNC Asheville
Second Round: 24 points, 8 rebounds, 11/19 FGs vs. Northwestern
Regional Semifinals: Thursday vs. Gonzaga (9:45 p.m., CBS)
Seniors are not in vogue when it comes to the NBA Draft. And that just seems like a really big mistake at this point.
Seniors know what they are doing and while they may not have the extreme upside as their young counterparts, they also have the ability to contribute pretty quickly because they know who they are and they know their games really well.
And, yeah, they can still get a lot better. Age should not be such a big impediment to the Draft if the player is that good.
UCLA guard Jaime Jaquez deserves a look for that reason. He has slowly built his play up while competing with a consistently really good UCLA Bruins team. And the Bruins once again find themselves competing for a spot in the Final Four and maybe much more.
Jaquez averaged a career-best 17.5 points per game along with 8.1 rebounds per game. He shot 48.1 percent from the floor, although he struggled from deep making only 31.7 percent. His 3-point shot has fluctuated throughout his career despite his free throw percentage hovering above 75 percent.
Jaquez is a 6-foot-6 guard, but he plays like a center. He is strong and punishes smaller defenders on the block — that is what he did to Northwestern to stave off a comeback attempt and advance out of the second round.
Considering a lot of guards now post up and the league has inverted the traditional notions of the position, thi sis not necessarily a detraction anymore. He can work around screens, screen for guards himself and take smaller players on the block and score with strength and creativity.
That skill should have some value.
But his lack of 3-point shooting is likely why he is slotted to be a second-round pick rather than a surefire first. He is still someone to watch as the tournament progresses.