2023 NBA Draft Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 1.0: The Madness Begins

The NCAA Tournament is here.

And while this is the cherry on top for most NBA executives when it comes to completing their game scouting and preparing for the NBA Draft, for a lot of NBA fans, this could be their first exposure — and certainly their lasting memory — for the prospects preparing to enter the league.

For those of us in Orlando, we got treated to a special moment in the first game Thursday when Furman stunned Virginia in a play that could only be described as very college basketball:

That is the magic of the NCAA Tournament. But NBA people are focused less on the present than on what this all means for the future.

And this NCAA Tournament could be very big in helping players reorder themselves before workout and interview season begins in just a few months.

The NCAA Tournament may be notable this year for its lack of top NBA prospects. But still the tournament marks the time to close playing profiles and look ahead to the NBA Draft.

Most of the top prospects in this year’s draft will not be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The tank race this year has been focused on France’s Victor Wembanyama with the G-League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson right behind him. Noise is starting to gather that Alabama’s Brandon Miller breaking into the conversation for the top two. And with the Crimson Tide as the favorites to win the Tournament, a three-week run of pressure basketball could do a lot to tip him over.

This has been an incredibly balanced year in college basketball without a clear favorite or overwhelmingly strong team. There are a lot of players around the country who could greatly help the draft stock and buzz with a deep tournament run. And this tournament may well have that kind of effect on several players.

The Orlando Magic are in a great spot entering the draft. Even though there is still an outward focus on the postseason chase and trying to make the Play-In Tournament — they are four games behind the Washington Wizards with 13 games left — they will be major players on draft night.

The Orlando Magic will have their own pick — currently fifth in the Lottery odds with a 10.5-percent chance at the top pick and a 42.1-percent chance of landing in the top four — and may receive the Chicago Bulls’ pick if it lands outside the top four to complete the Nikola Vucevic-Wendell Carter trade. The Bulls are currently eighth in the Lottery standings with a 6.0-percent chance of getting the top pick and a 26.3-percent chance at landing in the top four.

The Orlando Magic are pretty much trapped in fifth in the Lottery standings — seven games ahead of the Charlotte Hornets but three games behind the Portland Trail Blazers.

That puts Orlando in a very good position heading toward the Lottery, with a chance to add two top-10 picks and two quality young players to their roster.

Now they just have to sort through the prospects. And that is the difficult part.

This is a draft class that has three players who are considered very good at the top. Then there are a lot of questions with players who should have skills that translate to the NBA, but a lot of questions of just how those skills translate and how those skills will continue to expand.

With the NCAA Tournament starting today, it is time to start assembling our big board and figuring out which prospects are indeed the ones to watch as the tournament gets going and we close the book on the playing data from the season.

This big board is a ranking of these prospects with the Magic’s needs taken under consideration.

Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 1.0

The Top Guys

Last Game: 15 points, 11 rebounds in Loss at LDLC Asvel (March 14)

Next Game: March 24 vs. Le Portel (French Ligue Pro A)

This should not be complicated. Even with the Orlando Magic’s frontcourt set with Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter, they should not be afraid to take Victor Wembanyama if they land the No. 1 pick.

Wembanyama is just a generational kind of talent. A 7-footer with guard skills, shot-blocking and defensive instincts and creative shot-making.

He has played really well for Metropolitans in France, averaging 21.5 points per game, 9.4 rebounds per game and 3.2 blocks per game. He has delivered on all the promise and hype so far.

Last Game: 15 points, 12 assists at College Park Skyhawks (March 9)

Next Game: Shut down for Season

There is increasing noise about Scoot Henderson’s stock slipping in recent weeks.

He did not have the greatest season for G-League Ignite, averaging 16.5 points per game and dishing out 6.8 assists per game during the G-League’s regular season. Yet, somehow this was still a bit underwhelming. His shot did not come around — he made only 27.5 percent of his 3-pointers — and that raises at least some questions.

Still, the Orlando Magic need a dynamic and athletic guard to anchor their team. Looking at the Magic’s needs and it is clear that beyond shooting as a skill, the team needs more dynamic guard play and more size and rim protection from the center position.

So while there is a lot of talk of Brandon Miller climbing into the conversation to go second, the Magic should be pretty certain that Henderson is their guy if they get the second pick. He is a dynamic playmaker who will create space with his drives and can hit pull-up jumpers from the mid-range.

Henderson is the perfect elite prospect to add to the Magic’s lineup.

Last Game: 0 points, 5 rebounds vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (NCAA Tournament First Round)

Next Game: Saturday vs. Maryland, 9:40 p.m. (NCAA Tournament Second Round)

There are at least a few draft people raising some concerns about Brandon Miller’s lack of involvement and zero-point game in Alabama’s NCAA Tournament First Round win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi. The top overall seed still scored 96 points including 54 in the first half in a win to advance.

That is all that matters for the team. But do not worry, you will get a chance to see him again in this tournament.

What you will see when Miller takes the floor again is one of the most dynamic and impressive scorers in the nation. Along with a versatile forward who can guard the interior and the perimeter and play inside and out on offense too. He has a lot of the tools the NBA loves.

Miller fits the Magic’s eye with all the measurables that he has a big, dynamic, potential playmaker at forward. Nobody sees him though as a first-level scorer though despite all these skills. It is still all coming together for him.

After a poor showing in Thursday’s game, he will need a good bounceback Saturday.

Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 1.0

The Next Tier

Last Game: 24 points vs. YNG Dreamers (March 7)

Next Game: Season Over

It is still a bit difficult to get a read on the Thompson twins. The league they played in at Overtime Elite was not particularly strong. A lot of people I have talked to describe it as a glorified pick-up game. Maybe it has a little more organization.

But that makes it hard to figure out how much to believe in the stats they accumulated.

Ausar Thompson, like his brother Amen Thompson, is a dynamic athlete. He may be more of a scorer at this point than his brother. That might make him more valuable to the Orlando Magic. But it is all still rough around the edges.

He averaged 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game in the Overtime Elite league. But he shot just 29.8 percent from deep with a few burst games in the mix. So take those stats for whatever they are worth. We will see how much of that translates to the next level.

Last Game: 17 points, 9 assists vs. YNG Reapers (March 7)

Next Game: Season Over

All the same warnings that come from his brother Ausar Thompson apply to Amen Thompson.

Amen Thompson averaged 16.4 points per game and 5.9 assists per game in the league.

Amen Thompson is generally considered the better of the two. He is a dynamic point guard prospect, able to get into the lane. But he is still all athleticism. Even in OTE, he shot just 25.0 percent from beyond the arc.

For now, the athleticism trumps the shooting as he and his brother continue to develop their skills. But that is why the Magic are probably going to hold off with the team set at point guard and needing shooting more than anything else.

Last Game: 6 points, 2/10 FGs vs. Illinois (NCAA Tournament First Round)

Next Game: Saturday vs. Kansas, 5:15 p.m. (NCAA Tournament Second Round)

Nick Smith’s season has been tough to map out. He dealt with a knee injury early in the season, came back, had a minor setback and then started playing well again.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a 8-seed in this NCAA Tournament largely because of the inconsistency from one of their star players. When he is able to get going, he is a dynamic and athletic scorer who can play both guard positions.

Smith still has to improve his 3-point shot, but there is every indication that it will come. He can get downhill and score in a variety of ways. If his health checks out, Smith could well be who the Magic target with their first pick if they land outside the top four.

Last Game: 16 points, 6 rebounds vs. Northern Kentucky (NCAA Tournament First Round)

Next Game: Saturday vs. Auburn, 7:10 p.m. (NCAA Tournament Second Round)

Jarace Walker may not have the polished skills that other prospects the Orlando Magic are looking for might have. But it is also clear what an impact he can make. And that is just much more polished and developed than anything else.

The NBA will like Walker because he knows exactly what he is and is extremely effective at playing that role. With the Magic picking in this area, they will have to decide whether they will stick with the best player available or look for skills that fit their needs.

With Jonathan Isaac’s future uncertain, the Magic are clearly lacking some at forward. Jarace Walker would be a good player to give the team that defensive stopper on the perimeter and potentially even an undersized backup center. His limited versatility hurts him. But he is far more developed than anyone else at this point, even if he is not the best pick for the magic quite yet.

Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 1.0

The Group of Shooters

Last Game: 11 points, 3/9 3FGs vs. Iowa State (Big 12 Tournament)

Next Game: Friday vs. UC Santa Barbara, 1:30 p.m. (NCAA Tournament First Round)

It feels inevitable the Orlando Magic will take one of the group of shooters that dot the next tier of the NBA Draft. Getting the Chicago Bulls’ pick seems essential to make sure the Magic get at least one of these shooters and add that important skill to their roster.

Baylor’s Keyonte Georgie is not the best shooter in the Draft (we will get to him shortly). But he is the most dynamic of the shooters because of his ability to attack off the dribble.

Do not focus on George’s 34.9-percent 3-point field goal percentage. That is less important because he is taking them at a high volume (more than seven per game) and because he has to do it as the team’s leading scorer and creator. In a complementary role, George may flourish more if a team believes in his shooting.

Last Game: 19 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists vs. Howard (NCAA Tournament First Round)

Next Game: Saturday vs. Arkansas, 5:15 p.m. (NCAA Tournament Second Round)

If the Orlando Magic want to draft just a pure shooter, then the guy to chase is Kansas Jayhawks guard Gradey Dick. He shot 40.8 percent on more than five attempts per game from deep. Dick is just a light-out, hands-down shooter.

The detraction with Dick is that it does not seem like he could do a whole lot more. There are questions about his creation skill. And he has a negative wingspan — a sometimes negative for the Orlando Magic especially.

But it is clear he can compete. And his shooting skill is worth looking into and investing in. Someone is going to get a really good shooter when they draft Dick.

Last Game: 12 points, 6 rebounds vs. Illinois (NCAA Tournament First Round)

Next Game: Saturday vs. Kansas, 5:15 p.m. (NCAA Tournament Second Round)

Anthony Black is not a shooter. He made only 30 percent of his 3-pointers this season. But Black deserves to be in this group of prospects as someone who can give a team some major guard help.

Black is known more for his defense at this point. He is a lockdown perimeter defense. Someone you can trust to get after a player on the perimeter and make their lives really hard. That is the big attraction to him as a prospect.

Black is a solid finisher too. But the shooting is the big thing that could hold him back at the next level.

Orlando Magic Daily Big Board 1.0

Others to Watch

Cam Whitmore entered the draft process as one of the top prospects but had a disappointing season with Villanova as the Wildcats failed to make the NCAA Tournament and lost in the first round of the NIT (Whitmore did not play in that game). Whitmore though, a solid and prototype power forward prospect, had a strong finish to the season with 14.0 points per game and 43.8 percent shooting over the final five games of the season.

Kentucky had an up-and-down season and a lot of that is normal for them because of how generally young they are. Cason Wallace, Kentucky’s point guard, needed some time to develop. But he turned it on toward the end of the season, averaging 12.4 points per game and 4.8 assists per game with 1.8 steals per game in his final 13 games. The Wildcats are going to need strong play from Wallace to advance in this tournament.

It is very rare to see UCF have an NBA prospect. But Taylor Hendricks is set to be the highest-drafted prospect in UCF history and probably their first Lottery pick. Hendricks has all the skills and versatility NBA teams like with plenty of upside and room to grow. He can hit from the outside and work the post and offensive glass. With some more defensive fine tuning he could be a really valuable player in this league. And he will step up with big games — scoring 17 points and grabbing eight rebounds in UCF’s NIT win over Florida.

Well, we know the Orlando Magic love their Michigan men. And so the guy to watch here is sharpshooter Jett Howard. Howard shot 36.8 percent on 7.3 3-pointers per game. Assumedly, he would have to do a lot less self-creating when he hits the NBA. At 6-foot-8, he has really good size too. Howard will not be in the NCAA Tournament with Michigan playing in the NIT. But he could be someone who can shoot up draft boards with a good performance and shooting prowess.

Another local guy! The Lake Highland Prep alum went to Ohio State and proceeded to score 16.3 points per game his freshman year while shooting 40.5 percent from three on 4.5 3-point attempts per game. He plays bigger than his size. But his 3-point shot has to continue to develop to have a good chance at the NBA. His 83.0 percent free throw percentage suggests he might.

We will do a wrap-up big board after the NCAA Tournament ends and then our draft coverage will kick into high gear after the NBA Draft Lottery on May 16.