The Orlando Magic ride their six-game win streak into Atlanta as they face a healthier Atlanta Hawks team certainly hungry to make up for last week’s loss.
Orlando Magic (11-20) at Atlanta Hawks (15-15)
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
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Line: Hawks by 7
Tickets: $15-$1,282 on StubHub
Season Series: Hawks 108, Magic 98 in Atlanta on Oct. 21; Hawks 125, Magic 108 in Orlando on Nov. 30; Magic 135, Hawks 124 in Orlando on Dec. 14; Tonight in Atlanta
| Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando | 98.5 | 109.9 | 113.7 | 53.0 | 28.5 | 16.5 | 29.4 |
| Atlanta | 101.5 | 110.9 | 112.3 | 52.0 | 28.7 | 13.2 | 23.7 |
OMD Prediction
The Orlando Magic are riding high on this six-game win streak. They are focused on each individual game and that has helped them ride through the waves of each individual game. They are at least somewhat bracing for that first loss and trying to keep a level head to handle that and get back on the winning track when this streak eventually ends.
What has been so impressive about these last two wins particularly is how much was working against them, especially in Sunday’s game. The Magic did not shoot well and still battled especially on defense to get the win. They have certainly found something and need to keep bottling this momentum.
The win streak will end at some point. How and when is the big question though.
A back-to-back against a motivated Atlanta Hawks team after last week’s stunning 50-point first quarter could be the trick.
The Hawks are getting healthier too with John Collins expected to return tonight and Dejounte Murray also QUESTIONABLE to return from his ankle injury. That latter injury — Clint Capela is OUT with right calf strain suffered in that loss to the Magic — is probably the most consequential one with his ability to kill the Magic from the mid-range.
3 Keys To Watch
Pick and Roll Defense
The biggest area of improvement for the Orlando Magic has been their defense, taking a jump from 113.7 points allowed per 100 possessions for the season to 107.0 points allowed per 100 possessions during this six-game win streak. That is an astronomical jump.
Their pick-and-roll defense deserves special recognition. It is one of the big areas they struggled throughout the season, giving up 0.86 points per possession to the ball handler in pick and rolls and 1.27 to the roll man, the fourth worst in the league, according to data from Synergy.
That covering the roll man is the biggest key against the Atlanta Hawks with Dejounte Murray and Trae Young constantly looking for lobs to Clint Capela, John Collins and Onyeka Okongwu. All three have killed the Magic in the meetings this year. Atlanta averages 1.26 points per possession to the roll man in pick and rolls, the fourth-best mark in the league.
3-point defense
The Boston Celtics are a heavy 3-point shooting team. They took more than 40 attempts in both games and they found themselves unable to make the shots they were getting. Some of that is 3-point luck. The Celtics missed a lot of open 3-pointers in the last two games.
But the numbers are solid enough that they should be looked at pretty closely.
Orlando is giving up 33.1-percent shooting from beyond the arc, the second-best mark in the league. The team gives up 37.3 attempts per game, the fifth-most in the league.
That seems like the team is playing with fire and getting away with it. Or maybe it is the team’s strategy, counting on the team’s length to fan out from the paint and contest threes.
The percentages suggest it is working at least a little bit.
Banchero Bump
Paolo Banchero has found his footing since returning from his ankle injury. And teams are giving him star treatment defensively because of it.
Banchero is averaging 20.7 points per game and shooting 43.4 percent from the floor and 36.5 percent from beyond the arc. During this win streak, he is averaging 22.8 points per game and shooting 44.3 percent from the floor and 46.7 percent from beyond the arc.
The improved 3-point shooting and willingness to shoot — 5.0 3-point field goal attempts per game while still getting 8.8 free throw attempts per game.
Only 22 players this entire season are averaging 5.0 3-point attempts per game and 5.0 free throw attempts per game. Only four — Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Trae Young and Jae Morant — average 5.0 3-point attempts per game and 8.0 free throw attempts per game.
Reminder, Banchero is a rookie.
Teams are starting to throw double and even triple teams at him to try to slow him down and speed him up. He is still prone to mistakes and turnovers but he is also prone to making great plays and still getting his points. This kid is special.
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