Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers (Nov. 25, 2022): 3 Things To Watch, Odds and Prediction
The Orlando Magic welcome back Paolo Banchero and Moe Wagner to the lineup after an extended time out. As they take on an equally injury-depleted Philadelphia 76ers missing several of their key stars.
Orlando Magic (5-13) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (9-9)
Time/TV: 7 p.m./Bally Sports Florida
WATCH MAGIC-76ERS ON FUBO TV
FOLLOW LIVE: @OMAGICDAILY
Line: Magic by 2.5
Tickets: $34-$3,150 on StubHub
Season Series: Tonight in Orlando; Nov. 27 in Orlando; Jan. 30 in Philadelphia; Feb. 1 in Philadelphia
Pace | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% | FTR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia | 98.0 | 111.0 | 108.6 | 54.1 | 23.0 | 14.4 | 28.5 |
Orlando | 99.0 | 110.1 | 114.0 | 53.4 | 29.2 | 16.6 | 28.8 |
OMD Prediction
Fans home from Thanksgiving who bought tickets to this game hoping to see a clash between a rising young star in the league and a potential MVP candidate are going to be a bit disappointed they will only get one. Injuries are the story right now for both the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers.
The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, their three best players, for this one. Harden and Maxey have been out for a while. Embiid has missed the last two games with a mid-foot sprain. So this will be the scrappy version of the Sixers — the one that has beaten both the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets without Embiid this week.
The Magic did get some good news. Paolo Banchero and Moe Wagner will return to the lineup after going through practice Wednesday. They are no longer on the injury report. Although both Chuma Okeke and Wendell Carter will be gametime decisions.
To say the least, the team that wins this game might well be the one who is not still in a food coma after Thanksgiving on Thursday.
3 Keys To Watch
Trips to the line
The biggest change in the Orlando Magic’s offense without Paolo Banchero? Their ability to get to the foul line. Banchero has been making history by getting to the line for 8.3 free throw attempts per game. That is just something that rookies do not do in this league. And it is a pressure that goes onto defenses that Orlando has sorely missed.
For the season, the Magic are fifth in the league with a 28.8 free throw rate. But in the last seven games with Banchero on the bench, Orlando has dropped to 20th in the league at 25.3 percent.
That is still a lot better than the Magic of much of the last decade. But those three extra percentage points are a big deal. Considering how small the margins are for the Magic, two extra points are winning and losing.
The Philadelphia 76ers are in the same boat. Joel Embiid is a foul machine at 12.2 free throw attempts per game as is James Harden (although he is at only 6.2 attempts per game this season, his lowest since he was with the Oklahoma City Thunder).
Philadelphia is eighth in the league at a 28.5-percent free throw rate. In the last two games, the Sixers have dropped to 18.4 percent (28th in the league). This is how big one player can be at getting easy points.
Gaps on the glass
With both teams seemingly down their starting centers — and great rebounders in Joel Embiid and Wendell Carter — winning the battle on the glass will be key. This game is going to be all about finding the hidden points — the free throws (above), second-chance points (here) and fast-break points (below).
The Magic are currently 15th in the league with a 72.3 percent defensive rebound rate. But that number has dropped considerably since Carter left the lineup.
In their last four games (Carter has played in only one of those games), the Magic have a defensive rebound rate of 69.6 percent defensive rebound rate. Unsurprisingly, the team has gone from a season average of 13.6 second-chance points allowed per game to 16.5 per game in the last four games.
Even with Embiid, the Sixers are not a team that attacks the offensive glass. They score the second-fewest second-chance points per game at 9.6 per game.
They also give up the second-fewest second-chance points per game in the league at 11.0 points per game. That did not change in the two games without Embiid this week, but the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are not exactly big teams.
The Magic can find some advantage in getting to the offensive glass. And Orlando needs to win the boards to win the game.
Pick up the pace?
Teams often pick up the pace of their main player. It is no surprise the Philadelphia 76ers slow things down to get the ball into Joel Embiid or play through James Harden. Those two thrive and succeed in the half-court.
The young Orlando Magic? They do not quite have an identity yet. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are certainly both comfortable operating in the half-court. But this young team seemingly would be better in transition.
Some of that has to do with the Magic missing a true point guard — whether that is Cole Anthony or Markelle Fultz. Jalen Suggs is certainly willing to push the pace, but his decision-making in transition is suspect.
Still, Orlando probably should not be last in fastbreak points per game at 9.6. The Magic need to be better at making shots (obviously) but this is also another trouble spot for the team.
They need to find ways to steal points and look for opportunities to run. Even if they are comfortable playing at a slower pace.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.